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[公司专区] 5077 Maybulk 大馬散裝貨運

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发表于 2009-6-10 17:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Review for Maybulk Q4 2008 Report

营业额从 2007 的 608,142 到 2008 的 721,158,可是 EPS 却退步了从前期的 54.46 sen 到 46.09 sen。主要的原因是 Operating expenses 里加入了 charter-hire paid ,还有减少了船只的关系.....

Overall operating expenses which include vessel operating expenses (RM124.1m) and charter-hire paid (RM258.2m) increased by 67.2%, year-on-year to RM382.4m. FY2008 reported increased charter-in activities which in FY2007 were only RM88.2m.

On a year-on-year comparison, vessel operating expenses decreased by 12% from RM140.5m in FY2007 to RM124.1m in FY2008. The lower operating expenses are largely due to the reduced fleet, 2 dry-bulks and a chemical tanker was sold during the year.

季报里头有提到 charter-hire paid (RM258.2m) ,我不是很清楚这是什么,不过 vessel 的 operating expenses 确实是减少了,其中一个原因是因为卖了 2 dry-bulks and a chemical tanker 的关系。


现金流

Net cash generated from operating activities 342,049
Net cash generated from/(used in) investing activities ( 241,037)
Net cash used in financing activities ( 417,039)

Investing activities 出现了负数,因为里面加入了买 POSH 的钱 。

从 Cash flow statement 看来

FCF = 342,049 - 241,037
= 101,012

应该还属于正常的现金流水平。

Subscription of shares in associate company ( 792,167)

The Group had, on 16 December 2008, subscribed for 34 million new ordinary shares of Pacc Offshore Services Holdings Pte
Ltd ("POSH"), representing about 21% of the paid up share capital of POSH as at year end, for a consideration of USD221 million.

现金:
Cash & Cash equivalents comprise:
Short term deposits 791,696 9 88,783
Cash and bank balances 13,875 38,163
805,571 1 ,026,946

2007 = RM 1,026,946,000
2008 = RM 805,571,000

Bank and other borrowings 3 56,635 3 42,810
Bank and other borrowings 7 ,346 6 ,589

负债:
2007 = RM 349,399,000
2008 = RM 363,981,000

现金 - 负债 = RM 805,571,000 - RM 363,981,000
= RM 441,590,000

还完全部负债,Maybulk 还有 4 亿的现金,感觉还不错。。。。


股息:

In respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2008, an interim gross dividend of 10.00 sen per ordinary share comprising 7.50 sen less 26% income tax and 2.50 sen tax exempt was paid on 25 September 2008.

The Board recommends a final single tier dividend of 30 sen per share, amounting to RM300 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2008.

如果以现在的股价:

Price : RM 2.770 (25-02-2009)

DY = ((0.075 x 0.74 x 1000) + 25 + 300) /
= RM 380.5 / 2770
= 13.74%

哇,将高。。。我有没有算错。。。。single tier 应该是不用扣税了的。。。应该没算错。。。不过 2009 就没那么高的股息了。。。从 Maybulk 管理层回馈股东的股息看来,应该都不错。。。


卖船:

"Gain on disposal of vessels ( 327,305) (167,389)"

"the Group completed the disposal of its 25 year old Alam Sempurna in January 2009 for a very modest gain of RM8.1m."

"In November 2008, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company entered into an agreement to dispose of its vessel Alam Sempurna to a third party for a consideration of USD3.85 million. The sale was completed in January 2009."

我找不到这搜船的买入价,在这个时候卖船,到底是好事还是坏事?

从这季的季报看来,Maybulk 并没有使我失望,还做得很好。2009 年应该是 Maybulk 很艰辛的一年,财报应该也很糟糕,然而这将会提供我买进的机会。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-10 17:16 | 显示全部楼层
致网友的疑问 (Maybulk):

"这是我刚在Maybank的3rdparty analaysis里看到Maybulk的大买卖。Teo Joo Kim在3月18-25日之间卖了1,721,250shares,EPF在3月13-23日之间卖了1,088,000shares,还有Dato Capt. Ahmad Sufian @ Qurnain bin Abdul Rashid在3月16-17日之间卖了30,000shares哦。"

基本上,上市公司的董事们卖股我们是不知道原因的。我们只是可以假设的估计他们为什么这样做。

Teo Joo Kim 卖股,我之前有假设这位 67 岁的老人家需要钱用,所以卖股也很合理。

Dato Capt. Ahmad Sufian 卖股,他拥有 740,000 股 (18/3 卖 30,000 股 和 16/3 卖 20,000)。卖股的数量很小,我觉得他是在高价套现,留意看看他会不会在低价是买回就知道了。也有另一个可能,他也是缺钱用。

至于 EPF,这点不用多说,你留意看看 EPF 如何买卖其他股票就知道了。EPF 一贯的技巧,买卖股票赚取差价。

不过在这样短的时间有两个董事卖股,看来他们可能知道一些我们不知道的秘密,也或者他们知道股价将回调。无论如何,我们只可以假设的猜想。。。

只要大股东没有卖,我还是很放心。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-10 17:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 chengyk 于 2009-6-10 17:18 编辑

Maybulk 2009 1Q Report

令人惊讶的业绩,也终于明白为什么 Chairman 选择在季报出炉之前卖股。长话短说,先看看数据:



EBITDA Margin 只有 4%,真的是超级低,甚至比 complete 还差,还好 profit margin 里有 POSH 的帮补,还可以维持很高的赚利。可以看到投资 POSH 绝对是一个很不错的选择,如果少了 POSH 这笔钱,Maybulk 的 EPS 将会是负数。

再看看负债和现金:

注明: 不好意思,之前忘记放 Title。第一个 Column 是 2008 4Q 的数据,而第二个 column 是 2009 1Q 的。



可以看到 Receivable 减少了,也是说很多欠帐收回了,而 Cash 就增加了少少。Payables 方面也减少了一半,这是好事,至少管理层没有不还债。现金方面还保持一样,没有什么问题。

再来就是 Cash flow 方面,可以看到 Cash Flow From Operating Activities 已经是负数了,代表业务已经出事了,过后我会放出 Segment result,里面可以看得一清而楚。



Maybulk 主要的三个业务都下跌了 80% 以上,Bulk Shipping 尤其来得差。虽然我预测 2009 1Q 肯定很差,可是这样的业绩真的大跌眼镜,几乎到了没有生意的边缘。这真的很让我忧心。

"The severe fall in freight rates, lower hire days (as a result of reduced fleet size) and reduced chartered-in activities, all add to the decline in revenue."

这个风暴真的对运输业打击很大,几乎像是全球的需求量都没有了一样。可是深入想想也不是,因为 POSH 还是有很稳定的赚幅,那到底为什么 Maybulk 会出事呢? 我真的不知道,这也是我其中一个疑问。

前景:

"The MBC Group, together with its partners, has acquired a 6 years old, 53,553 dwt supramax in April 2009. Plans are in the works for another 70% owned subsidiary to acquire a 3 years old,
32,400 dwt handy-sized. Additionally, we have reported last year that we have four new dry bulk carriers on long term time charters (with purchase options) that will be delivered in 2010 into 2013."

这样差的经济和业绩,Maybulk 最让我担心的是如何运用剩下的 8 亿,看到文告中提到,管理层已经开始买船,而且 2010 到 2013 有四艘新船到来。看来管理层预测 2010 年经济将开始复苏,所以现在就行动了。如果经济复苏了,我相信 Maybulk 将会带来很稳定的盈利。

我还有另一个疑问,这样差的业绩,可是 Maybulk 股价居然稳如泰山,真的很奇怪,难道 EPF 真的有这种能耐?

无论如何,我还是设定了低过 RM 3 我才开始买进。

注明: 我的资料只供参考,我不对任何看了我的文章进行买卖的亏损负责任,买卖自负。

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发表于 2009-6-10 18:11 | 显示全部楼层
大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077)

植物油或乾散貨運輸市場

影响干散货市场的主要因素如下:

需求方面:世界经济平稳增长,“中国因素”带动铁矿石、煤炭和谷物等大宗散货运输量的不断增加。

供给方面:干散货船队运力增长不够;码头建设跟不上运量增长使“压港”现象日益严重,从而导致有效运力增长下降。

BDI有回稳的现象,油价回落,美元回稳,中东需求上升,这都是干货运输的好消息。
占干散货交易超过50%的铁矿石和煤,以及海运交易的转变,皆会影响干散船运领域

BDI指數大幅成長的原因有:
1.景氣好轉,船舶供給持續增加,有助指數成長。
2.原油大漲,散裝船的成本增加,因此運價向上調漲。
3.散裝航運傳統旺季,如北半球冬季燃煤需求增加,且正值穀物收割時節,皆會增加散裝航運的價格。
4.戰爭因素,如原油大漲,散裝船的成本增加,因此運價向上調漲,或開戰時散裝船隻的供給勢必減少,故導致散裝運價大幅上揚。

Maybulk的股价基本上被这几个因素影响:
•        BDI
•        Iron Ore (Maybulk主要货运)
•        财报(profit & dividend)
•        美国股市(心理因素)
•        大马股市(心理因素)


船运还是目前最便宜的运输方式,传统的行业。所以都是长期的需求。

以出租为多,无论bdi起或跌,都不会对收入有很大的影响。
40%的長期租船費率

maybulk 的竞争对手有 Misc, Swee Joo, Complete和 Hubline.

Maybulk主要的货物是铁广,铁是建筑的必须品,所以对中东和中国有很大的需求。
它是郭贺年的子公司,财务稳定,没有负债。有超好的管理层。
每年的ROE超过20%,低PE值。所以盈利和成长都不错。


"航運股的週期是經濟好,出入口多,船公司生意好,運費上,賺大錢,人人見好做,博命起新船,過兩三年新船供過於求,運費開始跌,再遇上經濟升得耐會放緩,航運入低潮。"

你可能会说Maybulk是Kuok家的公司,是好公司。。。可是没有办法,船运公司就是如此,不能在她好的时候买进投资,反而应该在她最差的时候买进,才能拿到便宜的价钱。

想要投资Maybulk请研究世界船费的走势,未来是上还是下,上多少下多少,上多久下多久。从中再决定买进Maybulk的时机。
不过,如果管理层好,投资它真的是可以赚钱的
就是买在船费低时 然后又卖在船费高时
周期并不难捉 因为报纸会更你说现在行情有多不好多不好
不过要有准备握几年啦


BDI是一个综合性的指数,由全球传统的12条主要干散货船航线的运价,按照各自在航运市场上的重要程度和所占比重构成。

  国际航运市场中,广泛采用运价指数来反映运价水平和动态,其中,波罗的海综合运价指数(BDI)反映全球干散货航运市场的运价水平,不但是干散货航运市场发展和变化的晴雨表,而且是运价期货交易的基础,对于干散货航运市场的分析和预测及指导干散货船的租船业务,均有着重要的作用。



转贴来源于:http://cforum5.cari.com.my/viewt ... =maybulk&page=1

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发表于 2009-6-11 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
其实这间公司吸引我的理由还是因为有高股息,我想今年的股息可能不会有以往那么高吧,不过长期而言我还是很乐观的

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-11 16:49 | 显示全部楼层
6# tyche6

其实 Maybulk 股息不是很高的,只是去年的股息比较高,如果因为股息高而投资 maybulk 你将会后悔,我觉得今年的股息应该很难看。

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发表于 2009-6-11 18:38 | 显示全部楼层
6# tyche6

其实 Maybulk 股息不是很高的,只是去年的股息比较高,如果因为股息高而投资 maybulk 你将会后悔,我觉得今年的股息应该很难看。
chengyk 发表于 2009-6-11 16:49

chengky兄,maybulk的股息高不是只有去年而已,还有,如果你以为09年难看的年报可以让你拥有很低的买价,井底蛙担心你会失望

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-11 19:12 | 显示全部楼层
chengky兄,maybulk的股息高不是只有去年而已,还有,如果你以为09年难看的年报可以让你拥有很低的买价,井底蛙担心你会失望
井底蛙 发表于 2009-6-11 18:38


为什么那么说呢? 愿闻其详。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-11 19:22 | 显示全部楼层
chengky兄,maybulk的股息高不是只有去年而已,还有,如果你以为09年难看的年报可以让你拥有很低的买价,井底蛙担心你会失望
井底蛙 发表于 2009-6-11 18:38



资料来源于:http://www.maybulk.com.my/investor/dividend_record.html

确实是我搞错了,谢谢井底蛙的提醒。

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发表于 2009-6-12 11:32 | 显示全部楼层
几年股息应该会保持30sen吧!不算差了。现在经济开始回暖,下半年应该可以提高赚益。

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发表于 2009-6-12 22:34 | 显示全部楼层
我在3.020买进!拿了股息30仙!!暂时在赚着钱!!我买的时候很高了!真不知该不该拿来长期投资!
上那么高了,不知道几时会大调整!!

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发表于 2009-6-15 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
为什么那么说呢? 愿闻其详。。
chengyk 发表于 2009-6-11 19:12

因为大户或比较有能力的散户会推算预测,所以他们的行动相对的也比较快,等待业绩公布更多时候只是验证推测是否正确而已

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发表于 2009-6-18 12:30 | 显示全部楼层
对于Maybulk,还是略嫌贵价,POSH还没显现其价值所在,高息是售船所致(郭老在港,新,马的业务当中,都不见得处处高息,不像标叔,PBB,LPI,大众金融都是高息股),若论收息,没意见. 但若论开番,建议中国远洋。   愚见,见笑了。

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发表于 2009-6-19 21:00 | 显示全部楼层
17# tankimchong

“对于Maybulk,还是略嫌贵价”
你觉得现在它的合理价是多少呢?

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发表于 2009-6-19 22:58 | 显示全部楼层
18# chyAu


你没看chengyk大大的部落格吗?他的目标价是低于RM3

注明: 我的资料只供参考,我不对任何看了我的文章进行买卖的亏损负责任,买卖自负。

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发表于 2009-6-19 23:25 | 显示全部楼层
19# cvlai78

有看chengyk 大大的blog.
我想听听其他人的看法。
我个人觉得因为上两个季度营利都很差,所以对它有保留。除非跌至2.50以下。

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发表于 2009-6-27 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
Maybulk sees opportunities in crisis        

Tags: Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd | shipping | The Baltic Dry Index

Written by Kathy Fong     
Monday, 27 April 2009 00:00  
  
It is apparent that the slump in global trade has dragged the shipping industry into troubled waters.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the barometer of the dry bulk freight rate, plunged over 80% as a result of shrinking cargo volume. Shipping giants, such as China Cosco Holding Ltd and Mitsui OSK Lines, have either cancelled orders for new vessels or delayed taking delivery. Meanwhile, scrapyards worldwide are filled with old vessels as a result of excess capacity. All these point to a gloomy prospect for the shipping industry.

But those who were present at Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) AGM last week didn’t quite see deep frowns on the faces of top executives. One reason is probably because the management is confident the company will be able to weather the economic storm and not sink into losses despite the tough operating environment.

“The shipping prospects are very poor. But I don’t think we will make a loss. We should be able to make a profit because our cost is low,” Teo Joo Kim, executive chairman of Maybulk, told the press last week.

Analysts say Maybulk has secured some earnings from the vessels that it has charted out. A contract to carry coal for Tenaga Nasional Bhd from Australia and Indonesia will help cushion the adverse impact, they say.

CIMB reckons about five of the company’s nine vessels are already profitably employed. “Maybulk is likely to be able to tide through the difficult spot market on its unfixed vessels, albeit with significantly less profits compared with 2008,” CIMB says.

In addition, the company’s acqusition of a 22% stake in PACC Offshore Services Holdings Pte Ltd (POSH) is already yielding fruit. Analysts estimate a contribution of over RM100 million a year from POSH, which specialises in providing offshore supporting services to the oil and gas industry.

The management team, which has been through several industry cycles, do not appear to be worried also because they had anticipated the downturn while their peers in the industry were celebrating the BDI’s record high of 11,790 in May last year. Maybulk was smart enough to start selling its vessels when prices were buoyed by the rising freight rates then.

“We expected problems. This was why we started selling ships a few years ago [when rates were high]. When we sold the ships, it was equivalent to three years of high charter rates,” Teo said at the AGM last week.

Last year, Maybulk sold two bulk carriers, one accommodation vessel, and one tanker. Recently, the company sold a 25-year-old vessel for US$3.85 million, making a gain of RM8.1 million in January.

Last year’s sale generated RM559.2 million in cash for the company’s coffers. In hindsight, the company certainly made the right call to divest its fleet. It  wouldn’t have been able to net such a big sum if the ships were being sold now. Also, shareholders wouldn’t have enjoyed hefty dividends. The bulk carrier paid gross dividend per share of 40 sen in financial year ended Dec 31, 2008 (FY2008), and 38 sen in FY2007.

“Maybulk is managed by a team of veterans who can read the industry trend very well. That’s why they are good at managing their fleet. Having Pacific Carrier Ltd as the major shareholder also helps,” says an industry observer.

Singapore-based Pacific Carrier, which holds a 34.5% stake in Maybulk, is a member of the Kuok group.
Given the falling demand, shipping companies are negotiating with shipbuilders to defer or even cancel their order for new vessels.

China Cosco, the world’s biggest dry bulk operator, disclosed that it is in talks to postpone its orders for new ships in view of the slump. “We are scaling back during the downturn,” Wei Jiafu, Cosco chairman, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. The shipping giant anticipates its dry-bulk traffic to slip by 44% this year as the slowdown in the Chinese economy has sapped demand for iron ore from steel makers.

According to Lloyd’s Register, shipping lines have probably already cancelled orders for 260 vessels globally after the collapse in freight rates.

The BDI rebounded to 2,200 in March from a low of 650 in November last year. The index closed at 1,897 last Friday. The recovery is said to be due to an increase in iron ore orders in China. It is debatable if the uptrend is sustainable. Teo expects the BDI to hover at  between 1,000 and 2,000.

While others are shelving their fleet expansions, Maybulk, however, sees it as the right time to buy ships, with prices down by as much as 70% from their peak. Sitting on a large cash pile, Maybulk can certainly cherry pick in the current buyer market.
“We are looking at buying vessels rather than disposing of them. There are opportunities at this point of time to buy ships because they will be very cheap,” Teo had said.

As at Dec 31, 2008, its cash balance totalled RM805.6 million after it spent about RM720 million cash to acquire the stake in POSH.

Investment analysts, however, aren’t upbeat about the stock, whose price has climbed 28% year to date. Eight out of 10 analysts polled by Bloomberg are recommending that their clients sell Maybulk shares. They  expect a big fall in the company’s earnings to only half the amount achieved in FY2008.

For FY2008, the company’s net profit dropped nearly 10% to RM521.7 million against RM577.8 million in FY2007. Revenue, however, rose almost 19% to RM721.2 million.

CIMB Research forecasts Maybulk’s net profit to slide by 57% to RM224.1 million for FY2009 and continue to fall to RM190.9 million in 2010. This translates into earnings per share of 22.4 sen in FY2009 and 19.1 sen in FY2010.

Despite its cash pile, analysts believe Maybulk may be less generous in its dividend payout. Over the past three years, the company has paid out 77% of its net profits as dividends. “Even if the payout ratio is kept high, we believe the absolute dividend per share will probably be trimmed significantly, since core earnings will be lower in the current weak freight environment,” says CIMB Research.




This article appeared in Corporate page of The Edge Malaysia, Issue 752, April 27-May 3, 2009


摘自:http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/f ... ties-in-crisis.html

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发表于 2009-6-27 12:14 | 显示全部楼层
18# chyAu


没记错的话,公司股东以RM 2.80以上的价码脱售持股量。若以目前预测的PE值论,他的合理价应当在RM2以下,但过去MAYBULK不断的被EPF吸纳,流通量也显得越来越低(除非大户丢票),因此重估其目标价格,个人认为在RM2.30以下,可长期持有。(大前提是当POSH还没显现其价值)

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发表于 2009-7-6 22:59 | 显示全部楼层
影响maybulk盈利之一的BDI目前将越来越不看好~
这也许也是大股东之前一直丢票的原因吧
因为待在行业里的他,更了解未来几年的市场
循环股的maybulk是提供买进的时候了吗?
还是等大股东开始回购之前丢的票
才显示出买家的时机

散裝貨運前景蒙陰霾
星洲日报http://search.sinchew-i.com/node/359531?k=BDI

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-20 21:45 | 显示全部楼层
刚发现又有一位 Director 卖股,所以来记录一下这几个月 Director 的卖股情况。

Dato' Lim Chee Wah
Disposed 23/06/2009 252,400 3.084
Disposed 24/06/2009 225,300 3.102
Disposed 25/06/2009 22,300  3.122

Direct (units)        :1,000,000
Direct (%)        :0.1

Dato’ Capt. Ahmad Sufian @ Qurnain bin Abdul Rashid
Disposed 01/06/2009 25,000 3.300
Disposed 02/06/2009 35,000 3.311
Disposed 03/06/2009 10,000 3.400
       
Direct (units)        :570,000
Direct (%)        :0.057

Teo Joo Kim
Disposed 18/03/2009 200,000 3.020
Disposed 23/03/2009 820,000 2.923
Disposed 24/03/2009 200,000 2.987
Disposed 25/03/2009 501,250 2.994
Direct (units)        :72,500
Direct (%)        :0.01

Dato’ Capt. Ahmad Sufian 不只卖那么少,我只记录最新的卖股数据。当然当中还有 EPF 在买卖股份。

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