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x 52
发表于 2011-3-9 22:07 | 显示全部楼层
Differing views on CPO outlook

KUALA LUMPUR: Given that many factors determine crude palm oil (CPO) prices, it is not a wonder that industry experts have differing views on the outlook for the commodity.

While most were bearish on future trend, Wang Tao, an analyst with Thomson Reuters, believed CPO prices would peak this year and noted that it was possible for palm oil to trade near its record high this year.

“I think palm oil will reach above RM4,000, maybe RM4,300 or more, this year,” he told the audience at the Palm & Lauric Oils Conference yesterday.

CPO hit an all-time high of RM4,486 per tonne in March 2008. The commodity has been trading above the RM3,000 level in 2011 buoyed by poor weather and rising interest in commodities in the investment fraternity.

Wang said prices would continue to be supported by the cycle patterns in CPO prices. Based on historical records, he said CPO prices go through a three-year cycle, which means prices could peak this year.

“The prices for every commodity market go through a cycle. With regard to palm oil, it is likely more technically-driven. If you look at the chart, the cycle is there and it will continue to be there.

“Sometimes the market could be fundamentally-driven, but I think most of the time it is sentimentally-driven,” he said.

Also slightly optimistic on CPO, Harald Sauthoff, vice-president of German-based Cognis GmbH, expects palm oil to trade within the range of RM3,100 to RM3,900 per tonne during the year with prices averaging at RM3,500 this year.

According to Sauthoff, CPO prices would be supported by weather risk and investment funds pouring into commodities, among other factors.

On the other hand, Asian director for Frost & Sullivan, Chris de Lavigne, said prices of CPO would trend downwards in the range of RM2,500 to RM3,000 per tonne, a contrast to his bullish view in previous years.

“In the short term, the next two to three months, we will still see a fairly buoyant market. But after May or June, we will see pressure on the market and the second half of the year has a bearish outlook,” de Lavigne said.

Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok commented that the average CPO prices in the first half were at RM2,549 and RM3,620 in the second half of 2010. He said earnings from exports of palm oil rose 23.8% to RM62.8 billion on the back of firming prices and sustained overseas demand. Production, however, declined 3.3% to 16.99 million tonnes year-on-year due to the worsened climate.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... on-cpo-outlook.html

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发表于 2011-3-9 22:15 | 显示全部楼层
棕油價格上看4000

(吉隆坡9日訊)基於生物柴油(Biodiesel)的需求日漸升增,植物油行業分析師多拉米斯特裡(Dorab Mistry)預測,在這一項利好因素加持下,原棕油價格(CPO)有望在今年內上探4000令吉大關。

他預測,生物柴油需求今年至少可增長250萬噸,主要推動因素是中東和北非時局動亂。

「倘若暴亂和示威活動持續,能源價格料因而上漲,因此,石油價格升高將會帶動生物柴油的需求。整體而言,目前的原棕油價格是受到石油價格所影響。」

多拉米斯特裡是在出席2011年棕油與月桂油的會議時,發表談話。

在石油價格上升、原棕油供應短缺以及需求強勁帶動下,相信原棕油價格在未來的8至10個星期內,會持續上揚並締造新高。他指出,「價格不會回落至3000令吉以下水平,除非金融危機和市場崩潰重現。」

在原棕油產量方面,馬來西亞期望今年可以生產1730萬公噸;印尼則可望生產2400萬噸,比去年高出150萬公噸。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... CTx0CwQ3UFN15aP0Tle

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x 135
发表于 2011-3-10 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
Mixed views on CPO prices


Some say the crude palm oil prices may have reached its peak but others think prices could climb higher if the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East worsens.

Palm oil industry experts have given conflicting views on where the commodity's price is headed for this year, due to volatile petroleum prices.

Some said the crude palm oil (CPO) prices may have reached its peak but others think prices could climb higher if the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East worsens.

In what looked like a repeat of 2008, CPO and crude oil prices are hitting records so far this year. Worries about a supply shortage following troubles in Libya, which supplies 2 per cent of global oil needs, have pushed up crude oil prices. Brent crude is trading at around US$113 (RM342) a barrel currently.

High crude prices mean more demand for biofuel, and this, in turn, means better demand for CPO. On top of this, there is already strong demand for CPO in emerging markets like China and India as their big population consumes more food.

At the industry's leading global conference yesterday, London-based Godrej International director Dorab Mistry said CPO prices, now trading around RM3,500 a tonne, can hit RM4,000 this year due to the political instability in the Middle East.

"Biodiesel demand is expected to rise by at least 2.5 million tonnes this year due to the geopolitical uncertainty in Middle East and North Africa.

"If the strife and demonstrations continue for a period of months, energy prices will remain high and expand the demand for biodiesel," he said at the Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition 2011 (POC 2011) in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

Given the high energy prices, tight palm oil stocks and increasing demand, the CPO price is due to reach a new high in the next eight to 10 weeks.

"It is conceivable that CPO prices may test RM4,000 in the next few weeks," he said.

He reckons prices will not fall below RM3,000 a tonne this year unless there is a general financial meltdown and a market collapse.

But Hamburg-based ISTA Mielke GmBH executive director Thomas Mielke is not so optimistic as he thinks the crude oil market is too volatile.

"CPO price of US$1,250 (RM3.787) a tonne is not sustainable due to the high volatility. But it will not go below the level seen in 2008," Mielke said in his paper at the same conference.

What is important now is how the industry should sort out re-plantings, yield improvements and acreage issues to retain world market leadership.

LMC International Ltd chairman Dr James Fry, meanwhile, said the global economy holds the key to the CPO price direction this year.

Countries are expected to raise interest rates to deal with inflation and this will dampen economic growth.

"There are clear signs of a global economy overheating but CPO price has a relationship with petrol price. The impact on the local CPO price depends crucially on what happens to petroleum price."

Fry forecasts the CPO price to rise to about RM4,300 a tonne but it can go as low as RM2,250 a tonne after spiking in the second quarter.

On production, Mistry said Malaysia's CPO output is expected to be 17.3 million tonnes this year, while Indonesia's would be 1.5 million tonnes higher than last year and hit 24 million tonnes.

Mielke, meanwhile, said Malaysia's palm oil production can touch 17.8 million tonnes in 2011 compared with 16.9 million tonnes in 2010, while that of Indonesia may touch 23.7 million tonnes in 2011 from 21.9 million tonnes in 2010.

Read more: Mixed views on CPO prices http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/bordaf/Article/index_html#ixzz1GAAmj4gz

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发表于 2011-3-10 13:21 | 显示全部楼层
马来西亚和印尼2011年毛棕榈油产量将提高
http://www.sina.com.cn  2011年03月10日 10:30  世华财讯
  [世华财讯]伦敦农业咨询机构LMC国际公司表示,今年马来西亚和印尼毛棕榈油(9280,-162.00,-1.72%)产量可能大幅提高,全球毛棕榈油产量将会增长300万吨。

  综合媒体3月9日消息,据伦敦农业咨询机构LMC国际公司周三在马来西亚举行的棕榈油行业会议上表示,由于马来西亚和印尼越来越多的油棕榈树进入成熟期,开始生产油棕榈果,因而今年马来西亚和印尼毛棕榈油产量可能大幅提高,全球毛棕榈油产量将会增长300万吨。

  据LMC的数据显示,自2008年以来,马来西亚成熟的油棕榈面积增长了12%,而印尼增长了24%。

  2008年三月份马来西亚衍生品交易所(BMD)毛棕榈油价格大幅上涨,创下了历史最高纪录4486令吉/吨,导致马来西亚和印尼油棕榈种植面积大幅提高。

  近几天全球植物油价格下跌,主要原因是中东和北非地区局势不稳推动国际原油价格飙升,令人担忧消费者可能调配需求。

  如果出现最坏的情况,那么今年下半年毛棕榈油价格可能跌到2250令吉,因为毛棕榈油产量将会提高,原油价格可能跌至70美元/桶。

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x 52
发表于 2011-3-10 23:02 | 显示全部楼层
CPO prices to hit RM4,000 in the near term, says analyst

KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices could surge up to RM4,000 a tonne in the near term, says Dorab Mistry, director of commodity trading firm Godrej International.

“Given high energy prices, tight palm oil stocks and pent up demand, I expect current high prices to remain intact for the next eight to ten weeks and during that time to test new highs,” said Mistry, a leading industry analyst. He was speaking at the Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition 2011 here.

Local production of palm oil is said to have been affected since September last year due to the unfavourable conditions caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, as well as the overuse of fertilisers and growth promoters.

Although figures for March and February are expected to indicate recovery, Mistry says Malaysian CPO production in the first half of 2011 could be 500,000 tonnes lower than last year.

This tightness in supply is expected to push CPO prices further from its current level, before moderating in the middle of the year.

“Our commodity markets have shown a tendency to undergo a sharp 10% correction every three months. The most recent ones were in November and in February, so around May or June another sharp correction would not be unexpected”, he told the delegates at the conference.
Mistry says our commodity markets have a tendency to undergo a sharp 10% correction every three months.

Mistry says our commodity markets have a tendency to undergo a sharp 10% correction every three months.

He said prices should not fall below RM3,000 this year unless there is a general financial meltdown and a market collaps.

He expects Malaysia’s palm oil production to rise 1.8% to 17.3 million tonnes from 16.9 million tonnes in 2010, as supply strengthens in the second half of this year.

Global production could recover this year, though the availability of exports for the global market, especially from the world’s top palm oil producer, Indonesia, may be doubtful.

“While, overall, we may see a [global] increase in palm oil production of almost two million tonnes, the export availability of edible palm oil and palm olein during 2011 will remain unchanged. This is due to the effect of the export tax in Indonesia.

“In my estimate, palm oil refiners in India, Pakistan, North Africa and the Middle East will be fighting over the same sized cake as last year”, Mistry said.

As supply strains to meet growing demand, CPO prices could experience another hike in the final quarter of 2011.

Other speakers at the conference also offered their take and outlook on the market.

Dr James Fry, chairman of agribusiness consultancy LMC International, said that CPO prices could track the movement in crude oil prices. He added that CPO prices could rise to RM3,700 if crude oil were to pass US$115 a barrel, but moderate to RM2,700 if crude oil declined to US$85.

He stressed that, although the current tightness in palm oil supply is seen to be improving, it is necessary for governments of producer countries to take measures to contain growth to sustainable levels in order to manage the demand for commodities.

“As governments raise interest rates and tighten credit to dampen inflation, economic growth will slow. This is not optional. The slowdown has to be sharp enough to bring the growth in demand for scarce resources back into line with the growth in supply of the slowest growing key resources, such as metals,” said Fry.

Thomas Mielke, executive director of industry information provider Oil World, concurred, saying the challenge is to raise production to meet rapidly growing demand for palm oil, especially for food, oleochemicals and biodiesel use.

He said CPO prices have risen 165% over the past two years and are currently at an unsustainable level, expecting them to decline for the twelve months beginning June.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... m-says-analyst.html

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x 474
发表于 2011-3-11 22:47 | 显示全部楼层
棕油價或回調 種植股走跌

(吉隆坡11日訊)隨著原棕油產量提高及需求走軟,大部份分析員估計,原棕油價格將面臨回調的趨勢,因而拖累多只種植股在今日走跌。

今日跌勢較顯著的種植股分別是擠進十大下跌股排名的峇都加灣(BKAWAN,1899,主板種植股)和吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板種植股),以及進入20大下跌股的貿易風種植(TWSPLNT,6327,主板種植股)及砂拉越油棕(SOP,5126,主板種植股)。其中,峇都加灣的跌勢最嚴重,該股在今日下挫24仙或1.56%,至15.14令吉。

大馬棕油局(MPOB)在週四(3月10日)的報告指出,2月份原棕油和精煉棕油的庫存總額增長4.24%,至147萬8000公噸。此外,2月份原棕油出口則下跌至111萬4000公噸。

分析員看法不一

以這項數據為準,大部份的分析員預測,原棕油價格將陷入回調趨勢,但是市場卻出現分歧的意見。

僑豐投資銀行分析員表示:「在預計原棕油產量在今年下半年獲得改善下,原棕油價格將持續走軟。同時,出口走軟也意味著目前的原棕油價格過高,並且將會進一步打擊市場需求。因此,我們相信,原棕油價格已經在2008至2011年的上升週期達到高峰水平,而目前已進入下跌週期,估計這週期將至少維持6至9個月。」

基本上,隨著原棕油價格期貨在2月份衝上高峰水平的每公噸3967令吉,分析員估計將啟動新的下跌週期。他們早前也預測,原棕油價格將在今年回調至每公噸2700令吉。

此外,益資利投行分析員則指出,在進入3月份,如果出口成長持續減少,他們認為庫存量將超越150萬公噸的水平,將進一步使到原棕油價格回調。

未來數月走勢或趨軟

無論如何,在天氣改善及供應將在今年復甦之下,分析員持續放眼原棕油價格將會在未來數月走軟。

另一方面,拉昔胡申研究分析員指出:「我們雖然維持原棕油價格在2011和2012年的預測,以及持續看好種植領域長期的投資性,但是隨著原棕油價格預計將在2011年下半年進入下跌趨勢,所以相信該領域已經出現下跌風險。」

因此,他們相信,種植股不會在未來3至6個月呈現良好的走勢。同時,他們也將該領域的投資評級下調至「中和」。

然而,黃氏唯高達研究分析員卻抱著不同的看法。他們表示,雖2月份的庫存復甦,但是依然處於低水平。無可否認,他們也相信較高的價格為需求帶來輕微的衝擊,但是卻估計中國原棕油需求將在下個月持續復甦。同時,他們預測,大馬3月份原棕油出口按月走高8%,至每公噸144萬7000公噸。隨著較低進口,估計3月份的庫存將再度下滑2%,至144萬2000公噸,將是今年低水平。

整體而言,儘管僑豐分析員對原棕油價格保持謹慎,但是他們依然維持該領域為「中和」投資評級,因為種植股的股價在預測原棕油價格走軟下,已經在過去1至2個月被大幅調低。

至於益資利投行分析員則表示,由於種植股都是以長期的平均本益比(PE)交易,所以目前維持「中和」的投資評級。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 77T0wrU3z6t1SCA22RT

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发表于 2011-3-15 18:06 | 显示全部楼层
油棕业,目前是大势已去了啦。。。我早都买票了

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x 935
发表于 2011-3-17 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
对于你的问题,我没有任何意见,但我只有一个补充。

这个月份,cpo根本就不算跌。

原因是soybean/cpo gap回到正常水平而已。

豆油每磅54 us cent,可换算成  RM3643 / ton 。 所以cpo底部根本判断不出来。

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x 474
发表于 2011-3-24 22:33 | 显示全部楼层
原棕油價探4個月新低

(吉隆坡24日訊)隨著市場開始唱淡原棕油(CPO)需求,商品價格已經連跌四天,並下探至近四個月的新低水平。無論如何,國內各大種植股在今天並未遭受太大的賣壓,股價表現起落參半。

最活躍的6月份期貨大跌4.3%,至每公噸3163令吉,寫下去年11月24日以來的新低,隨後才在早盤休市前回升至每公噸3179令吉。6月原棕油期貨今日以3270令吉掛收。

峇都加灣(BKAWAN,1899,主板種植股)及子公司吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板種植股)股價今日並未受到棕油價下跌的影響,分別上漲8仙及4仙,至15.14令吉及21.04令吉,漲幅各達0.531%以及0.19%。莫實得控股(BSTEAD,2771,主板種植股)的漲幅較大,全天漲10仙,或1.812%,至5.62令吉。

另一方面,IJM種植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板種植股)以及雲頂種植(GENP,2291,主板種植股)都呈平盤,股價分別以2.92令吉及8.19令吉掛收。

下跌的大型種植股只有IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植股),全天下滑2仙,或0.35%,至5.7令吉。

原棕油期貨在去年已經高漲24%,並在今年2月10日衝上每公噸3967令吉,創下近三年新高紀錄,主要是因為連綿豪雨一度打擊兩大出產國,即印尼與大馬的原棕油產量。

無論如何,大馬國家銀行已經在年報中指出,我國原棕油產量將在下半年回揚,因原棕油生產國料將迎來正常天氣。

駐新加坡的德意志摩根建富種植股分析員,透過電話訪問向《彭博社》表示,原棕油價格自去年末季便開始走高,但需求在過去幾個月都已經下降。「市場相信,原棕油產量將有所回升,並將導致價格走軟。」

原棕油需求緩和

獨立市場調查公司天祥集團(Intertek)在本週一指出,大馬3月份首20天的原棕油出口數據已經按月減少12.8%,至71萬9302公噸。

其對手瑞士通用公證行(SGS)則稱,原棕油運貨量在這期間已下降9.5%。

此外,僑豐投行分析員也認為,原棕油需求已經緩和下來。

他解釋,「價格居高不下時,市場只會按著需求買貨。除非市場預期將繼續走高,買家才會進一步追高價格。」

大連商品交易所(DCE)9月份原棕油期貨今日下跌2%,至每公噸9060人民幣,或相等於1381美元。早盤休市前,其價格稍微回揚至9068人民幣。

另一方面,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)最活躍的6月份期貨,則下跌2.8%,至每公噸1058.25美元,價格已經逼近大馬交易所的原棕油期貨價格。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 6ao075J3W222A945k6S

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发表于 2011-3-25 12:57 | 显示全部楼层
各位大哥,kulim属于不属于种植股呢?

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x 1
发表于 2011-3-27 09:07 | 显示全部楼层
请问哪个网页可以查询油棕局新鲜棕果出厂价?

如:
北马       A级榨取率19.00%   rm780/吨       B级.....
南马       A 级榨取率19.00%   rm788/吨      B级......
中马       A级........

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x 52
发表于 2011-3-31 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
Will falling palm oil prices make biodiesel viable again?

KUALA LUMPUR: The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, against a backdrop of falling palm oil prices and declining appetite for nuclear energy after Japan’s earthquake, have once again directed the spotlight on biodiesel as an economically-viable energy source.

While certain countries have seen the implementation of firm biofuel mandates to spur the industry, Malaysia has postponed its plans due to costlier feedstock in recent years, apart from inconsistent stance on the matter by policymakers.

Analysts said they are not too optimistic on the domestic biodiesel industry at this juncture due to the lack of well-defined policies and strategies for the sector.

JF Apex Securities analyst Ng Keat Yung said if the government makes biodiesel usage in vehicles mandatory, the move will reduce palm oil inventory in the country and hence, push up prices of the commodity.

Costlier palm oil essentially means more expensive inputs for biodiesel production, creating a vicious cycle for the industry.  

“Biodiesel players will have to work hard. Government subsidy is important,” said Ng, who forecasts palm oil will trade at an average of between RM3,000 and RM3,100 per tonne this year.

Third-month June palm oil futures were traded at RM3,252 per tonne on Tuesday, down 17.3% from a high of RM3,930 per tonne seen on Feb 10.

On the other hand, crude oil futures were transacted at about US$104 (RM315.10) per barrel on Tuesday, some 20% higher than the US$87 level it traded at on Feb 10.

Malaysian Biodiesel Association officials could not be reached for comment. The association, set up in September 2008, represents 21 members across the country.

Notable biodiesel players here include Carotech Bhd, which has grabbed headlines for not being able to service its bank borrowings. It was one of the most aggressive players in the biodiesel industry and analysts say its fate reflected much of the industry’s roller coaster outlook.

Another player, Kulim Malaysia Bhd, had disposed of one of its biodiesel plants in Singapore in 2009.  

Foreign biodiesel entities here include Australia-based Mission New Energy Ltd, which runs a facility in Kuantan.

Biodiesel has been touted as the cure to the problem of high crude oil prices, which rose to a peak of over US$140 per barrel in mid-2008, just before the onset of the global financial crisis.

In the early days of the biodiesel fever, crude oil prices were rising but the price of feedstock, namely crude palm oil (CPO), did not rise as much. For a long time, CPO prices were trading below the RM1,500 per tonne level. Thus, biodiesel projects were seen as viable then.  

However, commodity prices are volatile and rarely predictable.

As crude oil prices rose, so did palm oil, which surged to as high as RM4,000 per tonne in mid-2008. The promotion of palm oil and other edible oils as biodiesel alternatives for fuel meant that they now tracked each other closely. This meant players were not able to make enough to bridge that gap. Alternatives like Jatropha also became more favoured alternatives as its price did not track crude oil so closely.   

The lack of local government support is also a major factor for the industry’s setbacks.

While the Malaysian government was quick to introduce the National Biofuel Policy in 2005, it has not been fully implemented. The blending of 5% palm methyl ester with diesel, also known as B5 biodiesel, was supposed to be implemented in stages, starting with government vehicles from Feb 1, 2009 — but they have since been deferred.

One of the major markets for biodiesel is Europe, where renewable energy is big business and government support is strong. Europe has dominated the biodiesel industry with an estimated 90% of global production, supported by tax exemptions and national usage targets.

The European Union (EU) Biofuels Directive requires 2% of the energy for transport to come from renewable sources, including biodiesel and bioethanol, rising to 5.75% by the end of 2010, and 20% by 2020. Most of the biofuel produced in Europe utilises rapeseed oil.

Palm oil, by comparison, has always proved a sticking point with the EU which has announced even tighter guidelines on what it classifies as sustainable biofuels. One guideline states that the land used to grow the biofuel, which in this case is palm oil, must not be from cleared rainforest.

Should Malaysia’s B5 biodiesel plan, which has been postponed over the last few years, take shape this year, the fuel will be sold at petrol kiosks across Malaysia’s central region beginning June 1.

The Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry has indicated its commitment to implement the biofuel initiative. This means biodiesel plants which have stayed idle due to costlier production inputs in the past could be revived.

Updates by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board show that biodiesel exports in the first two months of this year amounted to a mere 14 tonnes, compared with 25,046 tonnes seen a year earlier.

According to news reports, as at February this year, the government has given out 60 biodiesel production licences but less than 20% of them have commenced operations.

It was reported that the government will subsidise the cost of biodiesel to ensure that prices at the pump match that of diesel. According to news reports, the subsidy could come between four sen and seven sen per litre. The 10% sales tax on biodiesel will also be waived.

However, there has been no official updates on the biodiesel subsidy so far, although a ministry official said the Finance Ministry has given its consent for the scheme.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... l-viable-again.html

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发表于 2011-4-5 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
MPOB: Innovation vital in achieving efficiency and productivity

BANGI: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) stresses the importance of innovation in achieving higher efficiency and productivity for the palm oil industry.

“To maximise the income of the palm oil industry, we must find solutions including those through research and development (R&D) to address the oil palm productivity that has stagnated for many years. The industry is plagued with average of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) yield stagnating around 19 tonnes per hectare per year and Oil Extraction Rate (OER) of around 20%,” said MPOB chairman Datuk Seri Utama Shahrir Abdul Samad at MPOB’s Programme Advisory Committee (PAC) meeting.

The annual PAC meeting involved scientists and experts in the oils and fats industries both locally and overseas.

In achieving higher productivity, Shahrir said targets had been set to achieve 26 tonnes of FFB per hectare from the current 21 tonnes and to increase the OER from 20.49% to 23% by 2020.

“In the upstream, this can be achieved through implementing measures including adherence to Good Agriculture Practice, accelerating the replanting of old and unproductive oil palm with good quality seedlings and mechanisation to enhance harvesting of FFB,” he said.

He said the palm oil industry needs to leverage on mechanisation and automation as a way to overcome the labour shortage which could affect the maintenance and harvesting of the FFB.

He said MPOB also encourages the industry members to participate in Codes of Practices (CoP) which was launched in 2007 as a result of an increasing requirement for certification in the oils and fats industry. CoP is a certification scheme that covers the entire production chain from nursery up to processing of palm oil products to ensure efficient operations at oil palm premises, higher productivity, compliance with food safety, quality and sustainable requirements.

Shahrir said in ensuring high quality oil palm planting materials and adhering to good nursery practices, MPOB is in the process of mandating the implementation of MPOB Codes of Good Nursery Practice for Oil Palm Nursery. According to him, mandatory implementation of Codes of Good Nursery for Oil Palm Nursery in 2012 involves auditing over 400 oil palm nurseries from next year onwards.  

He also said that MPOB has been collaborating with other renowned institutions to carry out R&D projects as it is important to match research objectives with institutional capacity.

“MPOB’s collaborations with other renowned institutions have successfully made breakthroughs in areas of biotechnology, food and nutritional studies,” he added.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... d-productivity.html

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发表于 2011-4-8 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
3月棕油庫存或刷三個月新高

(吉隆坡7日訊)隨著棕油產量強勁復甦,而海外需求則緩慢成長,大馬3月棕油庫存或將刷三個月新高。

《路透社》的調查顯示,5家種植研究機構預測大馬油棕庫存2月將升5.4%至156萬公噸,寫下自去年12月以來最高水平。

經歷了年初洪災及暴雨衝擊收成,接下來明朗的天氣有利油棕生產,產量相信將好轉,有望勁揚16%至127萬公噸。

2月棕油出口則料在連續三個月下跌後,首次取得成長,上升1%至113萬公噸。

儘管位於東馬的沙巴、砂拉越的暴雨或導致收成進度減速,及降低搾油率,進入4月的產量料仍會受到大馬主要地區天氣好轉而提升。

市場人士認為,大馬棕油經過兩年低產量後逐步恢復,棕油期貨價格將進一步受壓。

而全球兩大植物油消費國—印度及中國料增加訂單。

隨著雅加達將其原棕油出口稅從25%下修至22.5%後,下個月大馬從印尼進口料見回升。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 33p0OUo4tdr064b8zzl

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发表于 2011-4-10 12:16 | 显示全部楼层
Crude oil surges above $126, dollar slumps

NEW YORK: Oil surged to a 32-month high on Friday, April 8 above $126 a barrel on concerns about long-term supply cuts, while expectations of more interest rate hikes in Europe drove the euro to a 15-month peak against the U.S. dollar.

Gold rose to a record high for a fourth straight day as commodities gained broadly on expectations of stronger demand from the worldwide economic recovery and a weaker dollar.

European shares saw a five-week closing high, lifted by rising commodity stocks such as miners, and on optimism over the start of the first-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season next week. But Wall Street stocks ended lower on concerns about the impact of higher energy costs on the economy.

The MSCI main world equity index .MIWD00000PUS rose 0.5 percent to its highest since July 2008, and on track for its third consecutive weekly gain.

Interest rate hikes by China and the European Central Bank this week failed to contain the bullish outlook as investors eyeing heightened inflationary threats flocked to hard assets such as oil, gold and other precious metals as hedges.

"It's an across-the-board surge in all the commodities. Gold, oil ... they're all up. People are dumping the dollar and buying commodities," said MF Global senior commodity analyst Edward Meir.

Brent crude surged $3.98 to settle at $126.65 a barrel, its highest level since August 2008, as the war in Libya, unrest elsewhere in the Arab world and postponed elections in Nigeria drove bullish sentiment on oil.

U.S. crude settled up $2.49 to a 30-month high of $112.79.

The greenback was pressured by the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown as the White House and Congress struggled to break a budget impasse that threatens to shut down the U.S. government and idle hundreds of thousands of federal workers.

Boosted by Thursday's European Central Bank rate hike, the euro rose to its highest since January 2010. The currency was up more than 1 percent on the day at $1.4475 EUR=.

The ECB's move to raise its key interest rate to 1.25 percent has widened the euro zone's yield advantage over the United States, Britain and Japan, where rates remain at record lows.

"The market is ignoring all of Europe's fiscal and banking troubles and trading off a single indicator -- interest differentials," said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

Stronger-than-expected German trade data helped underscore the health of Europe's largest economy, helping investors side step resurgent doubts over the resilience of the zone following Portugal's request this week for aid.

U.S. stocks fell late in the session. The prospect of a government shutdown motivated investors to buy protection ahead of the uncertain outcome of weekend budget talks. Many traders were buying short-term put options on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY.P).

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 29.59 points, or 0.24 percent, at 12,379.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 5.36 points, or 0.40 percent, at 1,328.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 15.73 points, or 0.56 percent, at 2,780.41. - Reuters

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... -dollar-slumps.html

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发表于 2011-4-11 21:49 | 显示全部楼层
Brent falls below US$126 on Libya peace talks

SINGAPORE: Brent crude fell below US$126 on Monday after the African Union said Muammar Gaddafi has accepted a roadmap to end the civil war in Libya including an immediate ceasefire in the North African producer.

South African President Jacob Zuma, who led a delegation of African leaders at talks in Tripoli, met Gaddafi for several hours. The issue of Gaddafi's stepping down had also been discussed, the African Union said.

Brent oil fell 88 cents to US$125.77 a barrel by 0625 GMT after hitting an intraday low of US$125.54.

The May contract surged on Friday to settle above US$126 a barrel, the highest level in 32 months, as commodities rallied due to a weaker dollar and as continued fighting in Libya raised fears of longer-term supply cuts.

U.S. crude for May delivery fell 36 cents to US$112.43 a barrel.

Peace talks in Libya, where the unrest has been supporting oil prices, are "definitely going to weigh on the oil market," ANZ analyst Serene Lim said.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia reiterated its position during weekend that its "huge" spare output capacity allows it to meet a rise in demand or a drop in supplies.

The country would have "no problems" producing at its claimed 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd) capacity if the market needed the oil, a senior Gulf source told Reuters on Sunday.- Reuters

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... ya-peace-talks.html

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发表于 2011-4-12 17:47 | 显示全部楼层
March palm oil output up by 29.4%, stocks up 9%

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil output and stocks surged in March as production recovered after adverse weather conditions at the start of the year.  

Palm oil output rose by 29.4% or 321,693 tonnes to 1.416 million tonnes in March from 1.094 million tonnes in February, according to the statistics released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

In Peninsular Malaysia, output rose by 32.2% to 791,471 tonnes. Sabah saw an increase of 28.18% to 434,568 tonnes while Sarawak output rose by 21.32% to 189,993 tonnes.

MPOB said the total stockpile increased 8.95% to 1.614 million tonnes in March from 1.481 million tonnes in February. Peninsular Malaysia’s stockpile went up by 4% to 863,558 tonnes, compared with 830,290 tonnes in February. Sabah and Sarawak also registered increases in their stockpile of 19.23% and 6.29% respectively.

Meanwhile, crude palm oil (CPO) futures for June-delivery rose RM18 to close at RM3,417 per tonne yesterday.

According to a trader, January and February are generally slow months with production picking up gradually in March.

In January, palm oil output was the lowest in 12 months with only 1.057 million tonnes produced as a result of La Nina weather phenomenon bringing excessive rainfall to Malaysia, resulting in floods in various palm oil production areas.

“The March numbers are not too exciting,” the trader said. He expects CPO price to remain at around RM3,400 per tonne for the year.

He added that soybean production is expected to grow this year while production of palm oil in Indonesia is also set to pick up in the second half of the year, which may affect CPO prices.

MPOB’s report also showed that palm oil export for March went up by 10.78% to 1.234 million tonnes, compared with 1.114 million tonnes in February.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... 94-stocks-up-9.html

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发表于 2011-4-13 07:37 | 显示全部楼层
棕油價下半年有支撐
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(吉隆坡12日訊)由於其他植物油走弱及原油價格下跌,大馬棕油期貨在週二下跌近2%。研究機構預測,由於棕油產量接下來將上升,因此棕油價格在下半年將走低。儘管如此,由於原棕油與大豆油之間的折價擴大中,因此這能支撐住棕油價格。

截至今午12時29分,大馬交易所的6月份棕油期貨合約下跌49令吉,至每公噸3368令吉。交易商表示,進一步的下行風險將會來自最新公佈的棕油庫存數據。他進一步指出,出口數字令人擔憂,外在因素會是原油及玉米價格下跌。

黃氏星展研究在報告中預測,4月份的棕油產量將緩和至136萬3000公噸,5月開始才恢復上行走勢。大馬棕油出口接下來也會維持一個增長趨勢,即4月及5月的出口將分別按月成長17%及5%,符合季節性更高的產量。因此,期末庫存會持平。

以基本面來看,midf研究預測,原棕油的價格將保持不變,因為產量仍在復甦中及需求維持穩定。從技術分析角度,原棕油價格在短期內仍有上行空間。該研究機構也正面看好種植領域。

該研究機構也預測,需求將維持穩定,主要是中國為了控制糧食價格上升,釋放了3月份庫存,因此該國即將需要添補庫存。原棕油價格在次季將在每公噸3000令吉以上水平交易,下半年則在2500令吉及3000令吉之間浮動。

明年或晉下行循環週期

拉昔胡申研究則相信,在原棕油價格連續2年上漲後,2012年將開始一個新的價格下行循環週期。由於在天氣恢復正常,全球生產將改善,這將導致價格下行循環週期長達2年。

益資利投行在報告中預測,接下來的生產將持續增加,因為天氣情況改善及下行週期結束。此外,在生產持續強勁復甦及出口差勁下,次季庫存水平將進一步上升。

達證券在報告中指出,原棕油與大豆油之間的折價擴大,買家轉向原棕油。原棕油的折價已擴大至約每公噸187美元(1個月遠期合約),原油價格高企也拉高生物柴油的需求。此2因素將持續支撐原棕油價格。

黃氏星展投行也預期,下半年棕油供應的高漲,最終也會擴大原棕油與大豆油油之間的折價。

無論如何,艾芬投資銀行認為,原棕油價格將維持在每公噸3300令吉至3500令吉的範圍內,大豆油與原棕油的溢價已接近每公噸200美元,因而降低了原棕油價格的下行風險。

再者,原油價格已漲至每桶126美元,進一步改善植物油及生物柴油的的競爭力。
http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... Bd608n146xY1wav3OVc

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发表于 2011-4-13 23:33 | 显示全部楼层
Improving output and stable demand for palm oil

Palm oil
Maintain positive: The average crude palm oil (CPO) price in March surged 31.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM3,463 per tonne. The year-to-date (YTD) average CPO price of RM3,641 is 41.1% higher than that in the corresponding period last year. Reflecting the escalation in price, the YTD average of the KL Plantation Index also increased 23.2%y-o-y. Fundamentally, we expect the CPO price to remain intact as output is still in the recovery mode and demand remains stable. In the short term at least, there is still upside based on the technical chart.

During Budget 2011, the prime minister announced the mandate on the B5 programme, which is the blending of 5% palm methyl ester (biodiesel) with 95% petroleum diesel, and targeted its rollout in June 2011. We are two months away from the deadline but there is currently no exhortation from the authority on the matter. The biodiesel mandate is expected to take out 500,000 tonnes of CPO (the main feedstock in producing biodiesel), representing 3% of the national output and 34% of current inventory level. We are sceptical on the June deadline as a CPO price higher than RM3,000 per tonne does not make biodiesel economically viable.

We retain our positive view on the plantation sector as the Southern Oscillation Index is still pointing to production-disrupting weather abnormality. Demand is expected to remain stable, mainly from China, where in order to control rising food prices it released its inventory in March. China will need to replenish its stockpile in due course.

We believe the CPO price will continue to trade above RM3,000 per tonne in  2QFY11 and will hover between RM2,500 and RM3,000 in 2HFY11. We reiterate our RM3,400 per tonne average CPO price forecast for CY11. Our top-pick plantation stocks are Sime Darby Plantation Sdn Bhd and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd because of their sizeable plantation areas and their existing biodiesel plant that would benefit from the potential B5 programme mandate. — MIDF Research, April 12

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... d-for-palm-oil.html

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发表于 2011-4-13 23:33 | 显示全部楼层
Improving output and stable demand for palm oil

Palm oil
Maintain positive: The average crude palm oil (CPO) price in March surged 31.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM3,463 per tonne. The year-to-date (YTD) average CPO price of RM3,641 is 41.1% higher than that in the corresponding period last year. Reflecting the escalation in price, the YTD average of the KL Plantation Index also increased 23.2%y-o-y. Fundamentally, we expect the CPO price to remain intact as output is still in the recovery mode and demand remains stable. In the short term at least, there is still upside based on the technical chart.

During Budget 2011, the prime minister announced the mandate on the B5 programme, which is the blending of 5% palm methyl ester (biodiesel) with 95% petroleum diesel, and targeted its rollout in June 2011. We are two months away from the deadline but there is currently no exhortation from the authority on the matter. The biodiesel mandate is expected to take out 500,000 tonnes of CPO (the main feedstock in producing biodiesel), representing 3% of the national output and 34% of current inventory level. We are sceptical on the June deadline as a CPO price higher than RM3,000 per tonne does not make biodiesel economically viable.

We retain our positive view on the plantation sector as the Southern Oscillation Index is still pointing to production-disrupting weather abnormality. Demand is expected to remain stable, mainly from China, where in order to control rising food prices it released its inventory in March. China will need to replenish its stockpile in due course.

We believe the CPO price will continue to trade above RM3,000 per tonne in  2QFY11 and will hover between RM2,500 and RM3,000 in 2HFY11. We reiterate our RM3,400 per tonne average CPO price forecast for CY11. Our top-pick plantation stocks are Sime Darby Plantation Sdn Bhd and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd because of their sizeable plantation areas and their existing biodiesel plant that would benefit from the potential B5 programme mandate. — MIDF Research, April 12

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... d-for-palm-oil.html

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