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 楼主| 发表于 2017-1-11 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 糊涂 于 2017-1-11 17:03 编辑

稿还没写好,先分享数据。

第4季的产量比去年少了约12.3%,全年的产量更难看,可算是这几年来的最糟糕表现,或许这就是它股价低迷的理由之一吧?

种植地段则在告诉我们公司未来有成长空间,尤其是1-3年树龄的种植地段高达23%,预料能够为公司未来的产量带来积极的贡献。

数据方面,我觉得难得可贵的就是在re-planting的过程中,过去的3-4年之间种植了超过7000公顷地段,依然能够维持正现金流。





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謝謝糊塗大大的分析。送花  发表于 2017-1-17 16:19
謝謝糊塗大大的分析。送花  发表于 2017-1-17 16:19
感谢分享!  发表于 2017-1-15 18:56
Thanks  发表于 2017-1-15 18:39
Thanks  发表于 2017-1-15 18:39
谢谢, 明白了  发表于 2017-1-13 22:51
税后盈利+depreciation-capex  发表于 2017-1-13 15:47
大大, 看到你post的图表,想请问你用什么formula计算FCF的?  发表于 2017-1-12 23:40
嗯,主题乐园只是一部分,我认为它的营运方针有些改变,可能会提高赚幅。不过,我只会考虑在4.6以下才买入布局。  发表于 2017-1-12 15:42
谢谢糊涂大大的分析,大水鱼想知道糊涂大大看上genm的原因是否是主题乐园的完成呢?  发表于 2017-1-12 15:12

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x 1874
 楼主| 发表于 2017-1-11 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 糊涂 于 2017-1-11 21:11 编辑

再来一些比较重要的资讯:


SWKPLNT产量不高的主要原因是:

Two principal factors caused the low yield of the Group:
the inability to harvest from 1,855 ha at SP Suai due to a dispute with local participants; and a dispute with locals at our Mukah estates in the Central Region affecting approximately 5,503 ha. Active steps are being taken with the ultimate objective of resolving the disputes.
注:
1。 2015年已经取回约1000ha的地段,希望2016年会有新的进展。
2。 约8000ha地段没有收成的前提下,公司其实只靠余下的18,000ha的种植地段生产。若用北部yield或16mt/ha来推算步入6年的成熟地段,换%来计算就相当可观了。


另外一个我觉得产量有机会在明年复苏的原因:
1。 2013的翻种的3000ha地段,今年就步入第4年了,而且后续有来。。
2013
2014
2015
Replanting
3000
1800
1000
Mature
227
600
600
2。 9月1日以76m 宣布收购1908ha 已全面种植地段,树龄1-4岁,预期明年就可以收成。


点评

謝謝分享  发表于 2017-1-18 20:25
感谢分享  发表于 2017-1-17 16:22
謝謝分享  发表于 2017-1-17 16:18
謝謝分享  发表于 2017-1-17 16:18
感谢分享  发表于 2017-1-17 01:07
Thanks...  发表于 2017-1-15 21:56
感谢分享!  发表于 2017-1-15 18:56
感谢分享  发表于 2017-1-15 18:38
Agree your point! Thanks Hudu dada for your sharing!  发表于 2017-1-11 23:25

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x 2
发表于 2017-1-18 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
糊涂大大, complet 他现在可以All in ma? fcf yi jiu qian jing ma?

点评

最近看到Hutu兄还住着,没想到 one day offer, 655 就让我住下来了 :) 今天还有 high tea provide, thanks to you :)  发表于 2017-1-18 17:02
貌似我已经入住很久了,医师刚好住在我房间隔壁,这家酒店没准备早餐的。 :(   发表于 2017-1-18 16:26
我陪你,买在0.655  发表于 2017-1-18 15:15
complete的跌势已经停下来了,只是票不好买。我一直在66分左右顶住,住了很久的套房咯。你要来陪我住套房么?  发表于 2017-1-18 10:54

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x 2
发表于 2017-1-18 11:21 | 显示全部楼层
icon8888 发表于 2017-1-18 10:13
糊涂大大, complet 他现在可以All in ma? fcf yi jiu qian jing ma?

已经在0.66 赛郎...

点评

请问大哥是i3里的icon8888吗?赛浪!  发表于 2017-1-18 11:41

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x 1874
 楼主| 发表于 2017-1-18 12:22 | 显示全部楼层
SWKPLNT之我见

在CPO价格突破RM3000之际,相信种植公司的盈利将会开始复苏,然而市场上大部份的种植股却依然在低价位徘徊,我觉得这倒是个很奇怪的现象,这次会不会像去年一样的钢铁股一样慢半拍才飙升呢? 我不知道,但我认为,在确定CPO上扬周期成型之前先未雨绸缪,选好有潜质的公司并把功课做好总是没错的。“这会提高投机的胜算与一点点的运气”

SWKPLNT是砂州老牌种植公司之一,它的种植业效率并不好,不过公司从2007年上市后一直都慷慨派息,即使过去数年营运环境不佳的情况下,它的派息率依然是超过40%。我认为过去的几个季度或许是SWKPLNT最糟糕的时期了,无论公司盈利还是油棕产量都不理想,公司的股价也一直在1.7x的低谷徘徊。

种植股的PE一般上都能够维持在15左右,主要是因为种植地段会越来越少,地库的价值也会水涨船高。上市公司之中,若以市值/土地面积来计算的话,SWKPLNT是上市公司最廉宜的种植股之一:

基于SWKPLNT是净现金公司,那我们就可以简单的计算一下 cost per hectares:
2015年报 = 43,128 hectares的地段
2016年收购7月完成收购3,050 hectares的地段
再减去约8,000 hectares的争议地段
- 公司土地总面积高达 = 43,128 ha + 3,050ha - 8,000ha =  38,178ha
- 以今天的市价RM1.75来计算,SWKPLNT的市值约RM489mil
- 市值/土地总面积 = RM489mil/38,178ha = 12.8k/ha

若以1.75的价格来投资SWKPLNT,就相等于以RM12,800买入1公顷的地段,而且大部份的土地已种植油棕,目前的收成虽然是差强人意,但胜在价格便宜呀!其它的资产如150mt/hrs的榨油厂,油棕幼苗培育中心等等业务就算是附送的。这算不算是超值呢?

我认为现在的价格低迷的主要原因是几乎没有多少人留意它,而且表面上看来它的业绩、果串的收成也越来越不理想。因此,它值不值得投资就得看它是不是一个价值陷阱,我们至少也要能够判断它的业务在逐渐好转或正在变坏才能做出正确的决定。

种植股可算是最容易研究的公司类型了,主要的数据如每公顷的收成,种植地段的树龄,榨油的效率等等都可以轻易的从年报中获得,只要稍微整理一下资料分析,就能够做出一个合理的结论了。

整理了资料后,我做出了一些结论:

  • 第4季的产量比去年少了约12.3%,全年的产量更难看,可算是这几年来的最糟糕表现,或许这就是它股价低迷的理由之一吧?
  • 种植地段则在告诉我们公司未来有成长空间,尤其是1-3年树龄的种植地段高达23%,预料能够为公司未来的产量带来积极的贡献。
  • 数据方面,我觉得难得可贵的就是在re-planting的过程中,过去的3-4年之间种植了超过7000公顷地段,依然能够维持正现金流。





SWKPLNT产量不高的主要原因是:
Two principal factors caused the low yield of the Group:
the inability to harvest from 1,855 ha at SP Suai due to a dispute with local participants; and a dispute with locals at our Mukah estates in the Central Region affecting approximately 5,503 ha. Active steps are being taken with the ultimate objective of resolving the disputes.
注:
1。 2015年已经取回约1000ha的地段,希望2016年会有新的进展。
2。 约8000ha地段没有收成的前提下,公司其实只靠余下的18,000ha的种植地段生产。若用北部yield或16mt/ha来推算步入6年的成熟地段,换%来计算就相当可观了。


另外一个我觉得产量有机会在明年复苏的原因:
1。 2013的翻种的3000ha地段,今年就步入第4年了,而且后续有来。。
2。 9月1日以76m 宣布收购1908ha 已全面种植地段,树龄1-4岁,预期明年就可以收成。

2013
2014
2015
Replanting
3000
1800
1000
Mature
227
600
600

功课如下:



注:我有投资SWKPLNT,以上文章可能会有主见成分。若要投资,请自己再次核实。


点评

谢谢糊涂大大的分享 +100  发表于 2017-1-19 00:37
谢谢分享。  发表于 2017-1-18 22:23
谢谢糊涂大大的分享,也谢谢重开布落格,好久没能进去逛了  发表于 2017-1-18 22:14
谢谢分享!  发表于 2017-1-18 21:57
糊涂大大的股我都赚的,这次也买来支持支持,谢谢。  发表于 2017-1-18 17:48
bought a few at 174 few days back when you first mentioned :)  发表于 2017-1-18 17:09
是的,价格被锁在1.75,此股应该是有庄。。  发表于 2017-1-18 16:58
谢谢分享  发表于 2017-1-18 16:44
股价被有心人牢控在 1.75,1.75 有源源不断的供应,但就是不做 1.74  发表于 2017-1-18 16:43
感谢分享  发表于 2017-1-18 16:22

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参与人数 1威望 +5 收起 理由
tabibho + 5 优质的分享。

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发表于 2017-1-18 16:30 | 显示全部楼层
糊涂 发表于 2017-1-18 12:22
SWKPLNT之我见

在CPO价格突破RM3000之际,相信种植公司的盈利将会开始复苏,然而市场上大部份的种植股却 ...

老大,这或许就是种植股涨潮没来的主因


Plantation - Key Takeaways from MPOB Palm Oil Seminar

Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 18 Jan 2017, 10:13 AM

We attended the MPOB Palm Oil Economic Review and Outlook Seminar 2017 where the 2016 CPO average price was announced at RM2,653/MT, 2% higher than our forecasted RM2,600/MT and 5% above consensus RM2,520/MT. Speakers were largely in agreement with the consensus expectation of stronger 1Q17 prices (up to RM3,400/MT) and weaker 2H17 prices (down to RM2,200/MT) on production recovery. Malaysian production is expected to recover 9-12% while Indonesian production could rise 7-18%. Biodiesel programs should continue supporting CPO prices, though we think non-subsidized production could remain weak on large CPO-Brent premiums. We maintain our NEUTRAL call but near-term POSITIVE view with unchanged 1Q17 CPO trading range of RM2,900-3,300/MT and FY17E average of RM2,500/MT. Our TOP PICK is TAANN (OP; TP: RM5.00) as a double beneficiary of higher CPO prices and stronger USD/MYR, while we also like laggard pure plays such as IOICORP (OP; TP: RM5.15) and young planters. IJMPLNT (OP; TP: RM3.92) and UMCCA (OP; TP: RM7.11). Other calls and TP are maintained, namely OUTPERFORM on HSPLANT (TP: RM3.00); MARKET PERFORM on SIME (TP: RM8.60), KLK (TP: RM26.00), PPB (TP: RM16.75), FGV (TP: RM1.72), TSH (TP: RM2.12), and CBIP (TP: RM2.10); and UNDERPERFORM on GENP (TP: RM10.90).

2016 average price of RM2,653/MT above expectations. We attended the MPOB Palm Oil Economic Review and Outlook Seminar 2017, which was well attended by some 370 participants across the industry. At the seminar, MPOB Director General Dr Ahmad Kushairi Din announced the average CPO price for 2016 of RM2,653/MT, which was 2% above our forecasted RM2,600/MT and 5% above the consensus average of RM2,520/MT. This was a strong 23% rebound from 2015 average of RM2,154/MT due to tighter supplies on the back of weaker production on 2015 droughts.

Short-term optimism, but expect 2H17 price weakness. The speakers were in agreement with the near-term positive CPO price outlook, which is likely to fade by 2H17. Mr Ling Ah Hong (Director, Ganling Sdn. Bhd.) noted that production is likely to weaken in 1Q17 on lingering drought effect with recovery only in 2H17, hence likely supporting prices up to a peak of RM3,400/MT during the quarter. Meanwhile, all speakers concurred that the widely expected production recovery in 2H17 will likely lead to a price decline, with a general consensus of a bottom near RM2,200/MT from Mr Ling and Dr James Fry (Chairman, LMC International Ltd.). This is largely in line with our in-house view of a higher 1Q16 trading range between RM2,900-3,300/MT but a full-year average of RM2,550/MT indicating lower CPO prices in later quarters as production improves.

Production to recover. With fading drought impact, speakers reiterated the sector-wide consensus of production recovery in 2017. Dr. Ahmad Kushairi shared MPOB’s 2017 production forecast of +12% to 19.4m MT, while Mr Ling expects a more conservative improvement of +9% to 18.9m MT. We note that our expectation of 11-12% improvement is closer to MPOB’s forecast. Meanwhile, Dr. Fadhil expects Indonesian production to recover to 32-33m MT (+7-16%) from 28.5-30m MT, while Mr Ling expects Indonesian production to rise 18% on both drought recovery and maturing of younger areas.

Support from biodiesel. Dr Fry and Dr. Mohd. Fadhil Hasan (Executive Director, GAPKI) both brought up the Indonesian biodiesel fund (BPDP) which collects a USD50/MT levy on palm oil exports, which is used to subsidise biodiesel production. Assuming crude oil prices average USD50/barrel (bbl), Dr Fry estimates 2.00m MT of CPO can be funded at a CPO price of USD745/MT. Meanwhile, Dr. Fadhil mentioned that target absorption in 2017 is 5.50m kiloliters (kl) (4.84m MT) of which 3.00m kl (2.64m MT) is PSO (public service obligation; or subsidized), and 2.50m kl (2.20m kl) non-PSO. Assuming 2017 collection of USD950m, we estimate potential subsidized biodiesel production at 3.17m kl (2.80m MT), but non-subsidized production is likely to remain weak considering the relatively large CPO-Brent premium of c.USD330/MT currently.

Reiterate NEUTRAL; near-term POSITIVE. We maintain our short-term positive stance on the sector and reiterate our view that planters’ share prices have yet to fully reflect the substantial CPO price gains in 4Q16. Our 1Q17 CPO trading range is RM2,900-3,300/MT while FY17E average CPO price is RM2,550/MT. Near-term prices are supported by the expected production decline up to Feb 2017, while depleted stocks are likely to remain under the 2.0m MT mark throughout 1Q17. External factors are also supportive, such as stronger USD, better crude oil prices, and sustained high soybean oil (SBO) prices. However, weak demand from key markets (due to higher CPO price and SBO competition) could limit price upside. Our TOP PICK is TAANN (OP; TP: RM5.00) as we believe the high CPO price and USD/MYR benefits both its Palm Oil and Timber businesses, while offering a decent dividend yield of 3.6%, one of the higher yields in the sector. We also like laggard pure plays such as IOICORP (OP; TP: RM4.39), and younger planters IJMPLNT (OP; TP: RM3.92) and UMCCA (OP; TP: RM7.11) for its young area in Kalimantan which appears to be seeing faster production recovery compared to Malaysian areas.

Source: Kenanga Research - 18 Jan 2017

点评

冷眼前辈说jtiasa 估值廉宜,糊涂大怎么看?  发表于 2017-1-18 22:14
说起来,还是冷眼强,它上次的分享就是以种植股为主。  发表于 2017-1-18 22:10
那些专家做roti canai 比较厉害,去年下半年是布局棕油股的好时机,我先入手Jtiasa, 然后 inno+tecguan,再来就是都督介绍的taann... 现在只持有糊涂大介绍的tdm  发表于 2017-1-18 20:39
这样写哪里还有春天? 酱的报告出来真及时 :)  发表于 2017-1-18 16:57
可以去看看以前的forecast 准不准 :-)  发表于 2017-1-18 16:41
还要看美国,中国,南美有没有天灾。现在言之过早。  发表于 2017-1-18 16:38

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