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楼主: 糊涂

[谢绝灌水] 糊涂专区 : 谈股轮票

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发表于 2016-3-11 03:11 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 林群力 于 2016-3-11 03:14 编辑
lmt1111 发表于 2016-3-10 23:20
糊涂大...我可以很自私的抹杀你一点点的私人时间吗?因为我真的很想明白你的选股概念,买卖价位选择和公 ...


10几20年的投资心得,岂是一点点时间就能学会,冷眼30多年也要写书,也不是“一点点时间就能学会”。我看“没有心得”才是关键,无招。

如果要成为大师,如果想用一点点时间学会,到报馆的财经部应征吧,冷眼和曹仁超都有共同的经验,一个南洋商报,一个明报。老巴以前是派报员,爱迪生也派过报纸,虽然我看不起爱迪生这人,但一个成功的大师,跟媒体脱不了关系的,这是投资捷径。

我是这样认为的,财经记者能够贴近行业的运作中心。

点评

我认为: 条条大路通罗马,最重要的还是踏出第一步.  发表于 2016-3-13 17:02
要成为大师,不一定要接触媒体,但有人要走捷径,不就这样建议他咯。  发表于 2016-3-12 02:35
高手和大师,还是有一个鸿沟。  发表于 2016-3-12 02:33
不用到报馆才能成为高手,在 investalks 也是有很多高手 。。。。  发表于 2016-3-11 18:09

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发表于 2016-3-12 00:13 | 显示全部楼层
糊涂 发表于 2016-3-9 16:10
我还有一些免费票,昨天也买入了一点chinwel投机,我认为该说的我都分享了,怎么买卖操作就看大家了。
...

糊涂兄, 今天公布新闻会对Chinwel影响有多大呢?
http://globalfastenernews.com/ma ... amp;ArticleID=14689

The Regulation comes in force the day after publication in the Official Journal on February 28, 2016
据说很多买家已经开始终静观其变或小量进货,等待中国最新价格. 其间Chinwel也仅仅收到紧急订购而已.
Your response & thoughts will be greatly appreciated.

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-13 16:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 糊涂 于 2016-3-13 16:58 编辑
wynlim 发表于 2016-3-12 00:13
糊涂兄, 今天公布新闻会对Chinwel影响有多大呢?
http://globalfastenernews.com/main.asp?SectionID=26& ...


我个人认为这项坏消息已经反映在股价上了,过去几天大量的卖压应该就是2月26日欧盟决定而引发的,相对之下,我们获得信息可就慢了许多;无论如何,当这项利空消息公布后,相信股价的下跌空间应该是不大了,接下来能够左右股价的反而是官老这一类的大户。

短期内或许会有较大的波动,但我相信很快就会稳定下来,只要中国商家开始出价格,管理层自然会见招拆招,这只不过是做生意中的一个较大的波浪,我相信管理层应该有能力应付。

从管理层的访谈中(如下文),他们预测新条例只会影响bulk purchase的部分或相当于20%的欧洲市场销售,影响并没有我早前想象的那么大。与此同时,它的安全篱笆与石笼网需求庞大,并打算在年杪增产与进军物流业等利好也会抵消部分的冲击。再加上签署TPPA后,预计公司的DIY业务能够打进美国市场,早前蔡董告诉我美国市场比欧洲来得大,因此他对TPPA后的业务相当看好。

总个来说,我认为这一次的利空或坏消息,或许是一个不错的投机机会。短期内公司的成长会受到一些负面影响,但长期而言应该是利多于弊。至少,落实了总比让投资者胡乱猜测而造成恐慌来得好。


Chin Well (MYR1.67): Anti-dumping repealing to affect ~10%
We attended Chin Well’s 2QFY6/16 result and corporate update briefing today. The repealing of anti-dumping law in EU for fasteners from China (effective 26-Feb) may not be as bad as it seems.

In terms of numbers, only its bulk sales of bolts may be affected, which makes up 20% of EU sales, i.e. MYR56m (~11% of FY15 revenue). In the likely scenario of margin compression due to the need to match China’s pricing, management has guided for single digit margins. This division is enjoying ~15% PBT currently. If this halves to 7.5%, the estimated PBT reduction is MYR4.2m, i.e. less than 10% of FY15 PBT.

We also find comfort in (1) China’s labour cost increase; (2) part of the repealing involved a promise of being more environmentally friendly, lowering CO2 emissions and proper waste water treatment (Chin Well pays MYR0.6-0.7m every month); (3) China’s promise to cut 15% output over five years; (4) Failure of China manufacturers to stock up on wire-rod which saw prices shoot up 30% since January; (5) perception of inferior quality of China products; (6) most customers would source from various countries (as per past practice) for risk and cost hedging.

It is hard for China to penetrate the DIY market as it is labour intensive and there is usually a 1-year customer audit period. Cost wise, environmental cost increase could mean a levelled playing field for others vs China by 2020. Lastly, there will also be a time-lag of at least a few months before China’s threat materialises, due to the above mentioned factors.

Having said so, the fact is everyone is holding back big/bulk orders awaiting China players' pricing. Chin Well has only received small urgent orders during this period.

Whilst it will be hard for Chin Well to repeat its 1HFY6/16 PATMI growth of 113% with the expected headwinds, management has shared two expansion plans.

It intends to invest ~USD400k for a gabion machine end-2016. Currently, its gabion and fences capacity are fully utilised. In 2Q, wire product revenue jumped 28.2% YoY as it secured more new projects in Malaysia and began regular supplies overseas.

Chin Well is also looking to set up a recurring source of income. It has commenced construction of a new automatic warehouse in Port Klang for MYR12.8m, which will complete within 6-9 months. It plans to utilise 30-40% of the space, whilst renting the remaining out for storage of hardware related items. At 80% utilisation, management hopes for ~MYR2m p.a. contribution.

Separately, on the US side, it seems that the worst is over. Orders are coming in, though not consistently and not at previous levels. PrimeSource is Chin Well’s only customer in the US and the supplier of Home Depot. The PrimeSource takeover resulted in inventory rationalisation and order halts (due to over stocking previously) which affected Chin Well significantly.

The group’s balance sheet remains solid. It currently has a net-cash position of MYR71.4m.

As its stellar performance is not expected to continue into the 2H, we look at its 12M trailing EPS of 20.7sen (vs. annualised 1H EPS of 24.6sen). The stock is trading at 8.1x trailing EPS, which is below its 3-year historical average PER of 11.4x.

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明白谢谢糊涂老大。  发表于 2016-3-21 09:19
我认为数据的差别并不是重点,重点是要明白数字背后的意义,公司是不是一直再创造价值。  发表于 2016-3-20 23:15
糊涂老大,用net profit + depreciation - capex的算法是有何差别吗?虽然算出来的差距不大。  发表于 2016-3-20 21:47
Thanks for sharing!  发表于 2016-3-20 21:35
我是用net profit + depreciation - Capex   发表于 2016-3-20 20:56
想问糊涂兄如何计算FCF的?我拿2015年报里的Net Cash Generated From Operating Activities (61145) -CAPEX (12720)=FCF (48425)。 所得出的数据与糊涂兄的有差别。找来找去都不知道少算了什么。求指点。  发表于 2016-3-20 00:13
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-3-16 18:21
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-3-15 09:34
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-3-14 17:56
Chinwell应该会越来越好,加上TPPA协议如果达成,未来5年可期,可惜我没买  发表于 2016-3-14 17:55

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发表于 2016-3-13 22:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 gujjones 于 2016-3-13 22:26 编辑
糊涂 发表于 2016-3-13 16:53
我个人认为这项坏消息已经反映在股价上了,过去几天大量的卖压应该就是2月26日欧盟决定而引发的,相对 ...


谢谢糊涂大公布跟管理层的对话内容 从对话里面可以看得出管理层对这场风浪都是在可以控制范围,也带出很多公司未来展望 不错

点评

不小心按错的!不好意思~  发表于 2016-3-20 03:00

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-3-17 19:26 | 显示全部楼层
价值冷中求之聚美(ChooBee)

最近重翻看巴菲特语录,其中有句话让我深以为然 :“那些最好的买卖,刚开始的时候,从数字上看,几乎都会告诉你不要买。”,我过去数年的投机都证明了往往看起来最不起眼的投机项目,却能够带来最大的回酬。如去年买入的银行股、今年买入的中钢短期内看起来都不可能会涨,可它却偏偏为我的组合带来了不错的回酬。

钢铁股之中,基本面最好的就是中钢与聚美了,若仔细的研究这两家公司,不难发现它们有许多共同点,如:
• NCAVPS高过股价
• 稳定的股息派发
• 在艰难的营运环境中依然能够赚钱并不断的创造股东价值
• 在艰难的时候,提升机器来提高产品的质量
• 净现金

无论如何,聚美的主要营业额来自钢铁贸易,占了总营业额的6成以上,生产业务以生产16“以下的钢管为主,它的产品被广乏的运用在基建工程与产业发展上并预料会在大马11发展计划下间接受惠。

上个季度突然出现的2mil减记导致它的每股净利跌至每股0.7分后,它的股价就一路往下滑直到1.34才获得扶盘。若从过去盈利的盈利数据来看,它几乎毫无是处,若数据会说话,那几乎就是告诉你不要买。

近来,受惠于钢铁价格大步走高,许多业绩并不怎样的钢铁业者如Anjoo、Lionind等等都开始大步走高,偏偏就只是聚美一家独憔悴,因此我就扶了它一把,在1.43的价格买入了一点点来投机(不是我不想多买,而是市场根本就没有多少卖家)。


我个人认为它下季度的业绩理应会受惠于钢价回升,每股盈利至少有3分以上,再加上预料在6月公布5至6分的股息,投机即使无法赚大钱也不会血本无归。若泽一次钢铁业真的复苏,那聚美回到2块钱以上的价位也是很正常的事。问题是,这市场上又有多少人会看上这样的冷门股?即使价值再高又有何用,群众还不是比较倾向于往热门股的方向冲过去?

点评

谢谢分享  发表于 2016-4-8 02:45
tq  发表于 2016-3-23 19:45
謝謝分享  发表于 2016-3-22 16:43
謝謝分享~  发表于 2016-3-20 15:57
leo_ksting, 你所谓的技术面是老大造的  发表于 2016-3-20 01:10
谢谢大大  发表于 2016-3-19 10:38
聚美技术面目前一流。  发表于 2016-3-19 00:26
Thanks  发表于 2016-3-19 00:10
Thanks  发表于 2016-3-19 00:10
Thanks  发表于 2016-3-19 00:09

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发表于 2016-3-20 00:00 | 显示全部楼层
糊涂 发表于 2016-3-17 19:26
价值冷中求之聚美(ChooBee)

最近重翻看巴菲特语录,其中有句话让我深以为然 :“那些最好的买卖,刚开始 ...

如果钢铁业苏醒,以行业平均5-7% profit margin,股价合理于2-2.5之间。
钢铁业很难苏醒,虽然中国淘汰落后产能,不过中国/全球经济增长出现放缓,大马更不用讲。加上,之前他们不计成本生产的那堆储备,量大到惊人。
从12月触底后3个月的上涨走势,己经放缓。可能无力了。我有点怀疑是抄淘汰落后产能的消息而己。

点评

中国提出的一带一路,其中的目的是清除过剩的钢铁产量,现在说钢铁业要复苏还台早了。。。  发表于 2016-4-10 22:49
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-4-8 02:46
我觉得自己还是运气成份多一点,抓势我还没有入门呢。  发表于 2016-4-7 17:48
糊涂大捉势果然一流!  发表于 2016-3-25 14:52
虽然间中有交易,但中钢依然是我的主力。:)  发表于 2016-3-24 21:19
我有只疆尸钢铁股竟然不动,这次亏大了T.T  发表于 2016-3-23 11:46
现在放太早了吧,全球原物料在涨,升势中。。。。  发表于 2016-3-23 09:58
老大,到了第一目标,有放一点票吗?  发表于 2016-3-23 09:53
谢谢糊涂大大,huat ah!!!  发表于 2016-3-23 09:50
中钢太疯狂了,今天看来有机会站稳1.40的关口。  发表于 2016-3-23 09:42

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发表于 2016-3-27 20:18 | 显示全部楼层
抢反弹要谨慎,目前来看,商品只是反弹而已,基本面没有发生根本变化

点评

谢谢分享  发表于 2016-4-8 02:48
是吗  发表于 2016-4-3 09:29
我们不是内行人,不清楚最坏的时期是否过去了  发表于 2016-3-28 17:12
当班cscsteel "反弹" 到rm2.00 你就会看到基本面的变化了 :D  发表于 2016-3-28 10:13

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发表于 2016-4-1 19:48 | 显示全部楼层
combug 发表于 2016-3-27 20:18
抢反弹要谨慎,目前来看,商品只是反弹而已,基本面没有发生根本变化

是行内人士吗?
可以解释市场的实际情形吗?

点评

谢谢分享  发表于 2016-4-8 02:49

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 楼主| 发表于 2016-4-7 17:46 | 显示全部楼层
最近的2个星期,中钢的股价一直都在1.36-1.42之间游走,它并没有随着钢铁板块的股票上涨,我想它近期内或许还会这样的横摆下去。钢铁业的分析员都说钢铁并未摆脱产能过剩的困境,近期的价格上扬或许不会持久,这也导致许多人都还是抱着观望的态度。

我个人认为,在大马执法单位加强监管钢铁走私的前提下,大马的扁钢中上游业者的前景会比国际业者更好,尤其是国内大型建筑计划如婆罗州大道、 MRT2等预期将会带来稳定的需求。换句话说,大马中上游目前的情况是供应减少,需求稳定,足于让中钢立于不败之地,而扁钢价格上扬则是附带的利好了。

中钢的一些资讯分享与建议
1。中钢Q1的EPS预计能够达到2.5分以上,HRC原料短缺或许会影响公司的盈利。
2。大马市场因为关税局严查HRC走私导致市场严重缺货,这对中钢来说或许也是一件好事,相信会为它的PNO带来一些订单。
3。扁钢价格大好( 如下图)
4。预料中钢第2季会因扁钢走高而大好,8月出炉的业绩有看头。
5。马币走高对中钢来说是好事,因为它目前的原料极度依赖进口。

我的小小建议: 6月ex的8分股息理应能够为股价带来一定的护盘,若手上有票,别忙着卖,这一次可以守久一些。

注: 中钢目前是我的主力(占了约20%比重),因此这篇文章或许有主观成分。





转贴:
http://www.asianmetal.com/news/viewNews.am?newsId=1286252

CRC prices climb up in Malaysia
2016-03-31 08:26:43  

BEIJING (Asian Metal) 31 Mar 16 - As steel prices in international market increased sharply in past weeks and are standing high at the moment, CRC prices in Malaysia go up further at the moment. The current price of CRC SPCC 1.0mm*1,219mm*C is MYR2,150/t (USD548/t) with GST excluded, up by MYR50-100/t (USD13-25/t) compared with that of last week. Insiders predict it is likely that CRC prices will rise further in the near future.

A trader in Kuala Lumpur said the current price of CRC SPCC 1.0mm*1,219mm*C from local steel mills is MYR2,150/t (USD548/t) with GST excluded, increasing by MYR100/t (USD25/t) compared with that of last week. “Prices rebounded by around MYR150/t (USD38/t) in past two weeks,” he said. According to the source, Malaysian government has been very strict with imported HRC recently. In addition, Malaysia began to collect 6.35%-25.4% anti-dumping tax for imported HRC from China in February. As a consequence, prices of HRC, the raw material for CRC, continued to climb up in past three weeks.

The source revealed that local steel mills do not hold many stocks for CRC at the moment, causing a relatively tight supply. He has 200 tons in hand for the time being, while his regular level was about 400 tons in past months. “Some customers can accept the current price but some others prefer to watch the market,” he said, adding that he sold 250 tons in March, while it was only 100 tons in February.

A trader in Penang told Asian Metal that the price of CRC SPCC 1.0mm*1,219mm*C from local steel mills is MYR2,150/t (USD548/t) with GST excluded, up by MYR50/t (USD13/t) compared with that of last week. The source pointed that Megasteel’s supply to local market is very tight at the moment and the mill limited some traders’ buying quantity in past days.

Holding an inventory of 150 tons against the regular level of 250 tons, the source is not eager to sell materials at the moment, predicting a further price increase in the short term. He revealed that his sales volume is about 100 tons in the latter half of this month, when prices showed an upward trend, which is a little higher than that of 70 tons in the former half. In his opinion, if prices continue to go up, the market will perform inactively but customers will gradually accept the current higher price level in the future.

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nice sharing . tq  发表于 2016-6-22 11:28
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-5-22 21:48
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-5-22 21:48
謝謝分享  发表于 2016-4-11 13:11
明白了,感谢大大。  发表于 2016-4-10 09:03
ahhon,有一部分write back上季度已经进帐了,我想下季度即使有,也不多了。因此并不算上write back。  发表于 2016-4-9 20:39
Latitude兄,应该没影响,联合钢铁应该是搞H beam与长钢等。  发表于 2016-4-9 20:36
感谢大大分享  发表于 2016-4-9 01:24
请问糊涂大,Q1的2.5E P S有没有考虑去年买地时的write back ?  发表于 2016-4-8 20:13
谢谢  发表于 2016-4-8 15:26

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发表于 2016-4-8 01:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Bioosmo 于 2016-4-8 01:57 编辑
糊涂 发表于 2016-4-7 17:46
最近的2个星期,中钢的股价一直都在1.36-1.42之间游走,它并没有随着钢铁板块的股票上涨,我想它近期内或许 ...


2016年8月出炉的业绩有看头与否我不知道。
但是2016年5月出炉的业绩几乎肯定比不上2016年2月出炉的业绩,要维持2016年2月出炉的业绩难如登天。
糊涂老大已经看出来了。(中钢Q1的EPS预计能够达到2.5分)



@storm0227  你让我有点小失望喔,居然偷懒没做功课。我们这些小鱼如果没做足功课,随时会翻船!

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result of lower hot rolled steel price,意思是说扁钢价格大好,对CSC反而是坏事? 是不是因为CSC做冷扁钢的材料是热扁钢,虽然冷扁钢价格上升,但他的材料热扁钢价格也跟上升,所以扁钢价格上升对CSC并不是利好?  发表于 2016-4-9 15:40
最近一直被拉耳朵,是好事来的~~~XD  发表于 2016-4-9 00:22
Storm大大给我酸一下,可能5月逃过一劫,应该算有赚吧...呵呵  发表于 2016-4-8 18:07
B大就是会酸人 XD  发表于 2016-4-8 17:42
Storm被b大拉耳朵XD。b大威武~~真的知错了?XDXD  发表于 2016-4-8 12:30
B大就是B大+2  发表于 2016-4-8 08:48
B大就是B大+1  发表于 2016-4-8 08:46
b大,哈哈哈~最近比较少做功课,0rz 我知错了0rz 等下个星期一我就可能比较得空了0rz 等下要出门了,拜见大都督0rz  发表于 2016-4-8 08:43
B大就是B大  发表于 2016-4-8 08:09
其实我觉得不只csc steel, 其他的如Ann joo, ssteel在下一个report也不会很好,市场现在是买他们未来更久的业绩吧。。。。  发表于 2016-4-8 07:07

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发表于 2016-4-9 16:33 | 显示全部楼层
想问大家一下,这里除了糊涂大大,还有谁知道:

1)CSC是做的是什么钢?

2)  所做的钢有什么用途?在哪个领域广泛使用?

3)材料是什么?从哪里获得材料?

4)是不是扁钢的价钱越高,csc就赚越多?

5)根据http://app.finance.ifeng.com/dat ... ;end_day=2016-04-09 的资料,为什么

2014 6月 扁钢价格在157,8月出的业绩却亏2.3仙

2015 6月 扁钢价格在125,8月出的业绩却赚 2.8仙

2015 12月扁钢价格在104,2月出的业绩更大赚 3.2仙 (扣除那个write back)

这样看,变成扁钢价格越高,对CSC越不利了

6)还是大家都和我一样,只知道CSC是钢铁股而已? (一个因为没做功课怕被糊涂大大打屁股而拚命找同伴的散户)






点评

tq for the info  发表于 2016-6-22 11:30
刚刚去逛了,谢谢你的资讯  发表于 2016-4-10 11:11
建议你,除了看糊涂大大的贴, 也看看leo大的贴,对你的问题有帮助。。。。  发表于 2016-4-9 17:40

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发表于 2016-4-10 19:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 leo_ksting 于 2016-4-11 05:31 编辑
jiekefu 发表于 2016-4-9 16:33

1)CSC是做的是什么钢?


想问大家一下,这里除了糊涂大大,还有谁知道:

1)CSC是做的是什么钢?
      Pickling line - 把HRC 用acid 洗干净, 上油成为 P&O.
      Cold Rolling Mill - 把P&O 轧成CRC
      Galvanising Line  - 把CRC 镀锌 GIC
      Color Coating Line  - 把GIC 涂漆 PPGIC
       Annealing process 俗称 去火, CRC 去火后, 成为DQ 级, 可以使用在forming process。


2)  所做的钢有什么用途?在哪个领域广泛使用?
       供给下游业者, 用在屋顶结构 (Purlin, Truss, Roofing), Cladding, slitting, framing, 等等
          钢管业务,路边防撞栏,电灯柱, Floor Decking, stamping 等等。。。。


3)材料是什么?从哪里获得材料?
      材料是HRC 和 CRC 。
       部分中钢进口,大马政策强制必须购买LIONCOR 的HRC。
         必须买本地HRCquota后,才能进口。
  

4)是不是扁钢的价钱越高,csc就赚越多?
      除了原本的margin. 原料涨价,HRC就涨,CRC就涨,全部都涨。
         之前便宜拿到的货全部赚 原来的margin 外加 price increase 的margin.


5)根据http://app.finance.ifeng.com/dat ... ;end_day=2016-04-09 的资料,为什么

2014 6月 扁钢价格在157,8月出的业绩却亏2.3仙
2015 6月 扁钢价格在125,8月出的业绩却赚 2.8仙
2015 12月扁钢价格在104,2月出的业绩更大赚 3.2仙 (扣除那个write back)
这样看,变成扁钢价格越高,对CSC越不利了

不能比,之前原料一直跌,腐蚀margin。
只能控制生产时operating cost 和 administative cost。
如果原料来贵了,write off 就损失了。
所以,EPS 不定。


6)还是大家都和我一样,只知道CSC是钢铁股而已? (一个因为没做功课怕被糊涂大大打屁股而拚命找同伴的散户)

    CSC 出名的扁钢老大,品牌第二, 不会出事。
    只是股价跑得太快,接近5年新高,
    所以必须拉长时间来收票。
    也需要等后面的同伴跟上来。
    今年EPS 将大幅超越去年。
    一旦利好出炉,
    在扁钢板块里,股价上升空间未来居前三名。
      

点评

高手  发表于 2016-6-22 11:34
谢谢  发表于 2016-4-13 13:58
高手一出手,就知有没有。赞!送你花一朵。  发表于 2016-4-11 16:55
謝謝分享  发表于 2016-4-11 13:22
Leo大,还有前两名是那家公司啊?XD  发表于 2016-4-11 07:03
谢谢分享  发表于 2016-4-11 00:04
现在的价钱是反应现在的走势的,股票是看未来的,而不是看过去的,没有未出炉的利多,你觉得中钢可以站得这么稳吗?  发表于 2016-4-10 22:11
我也誠心的感謝糊塗大大和leo大的分享。中鋼一定會緊緊的抱著,絕不放手 :)  发表于 2016-4-10 22:03
感恩leo大大的解答  发表于 2016-4-10 21:17
谢谢分享!  发表于 2016-4-10 20:36

评分

参与人数 1威望 +5 收起 理由
tabibho + 5 优质的分享。

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发表于 2016-4-11 00:17 | 显示全部楼层
炮声一响,黄金万两。
从没听说战争了,要看死了多少人,
破坏多严重,等报告出炉,
才决定黄金的价值。

股价就是反应现在的情形,
加上预期未来的走势。
从来都不是拿未出炉的过去三个月的表现,
决定未来的走势!

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发表于 2016-4-11 15:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Bioosmo 于 2016-4-11 15:49 编辑
leo_ksting 发表于 2016-4-11 00:17
炮声一响,黄金万两。
从没听说战争了,要看死了多少人,
破坏多严重,等报告出炉,



我下船了,剩下几张免费股
请记得Weida和Chinwell被扎沉然后抄底的故事
大行的投资报告出来了,你可以反其道而行的
也许大行是错的,你才是对的
无论如果,我不贪心,有赚就好
(本来下面的专业报告我是不应该贴上来的,以免变成下船就扎船的pattern;
可是你提出相反的意见,我不得不贴上来)

The Steel Industry ... Rally Unsustainable !!!

The recovery in international steel prices has resulted in renewed interest in steel-related companies which has seen share prices climbing over 60% since March 2016 till 10 April 2016.

However, industry observers doubt that the share price rally would have legs moving forward, simply because the demand for steel is still relatively weak, in addition to the overcapacity in the industry. The rally is unsustainable due to uptrend was not driven by fundamental demand.

It was reported that buying activities in the past 30 days (Till 10 April 2016) were mainly driven by the steel suppliers’ inventory replenishment. When steel prices are low, producers don’t like to have a high inventory; now (10 April 2016) that the price has gone up, they have started to stock up for replenishment, so the demand comes from the suppliers, not driven by fundamental demand in steel consumption
, like the construction sector.

Industry observers expect share prices of the local steel players to normalise after the rebound. Their profitability will still depend on global raw material prices, but in the short term, with all factors remain unchanged, it (prices) should be normalised now (10 April 2016).

However although demand remains constant, with higher steel prices, industry players are poised to have better margins.

Despite the more conducive steel prices, they are still insufficient for players like Masteel to break even. Masteel’s break-even price should be at about RM1,800 per tonne.

Nevertheless, the cut in China steel production may not be sufficient to support local steel demand due to stiff competition from cheaper imports. Although China announced in end January 2016 that its steel production capacity will be cut by 100 to 150 million tonnes, China itself has surplus capacity of circa 300 million tonnes, which means that the cut in production capacity does not necessarily translate into a cut in steel exports from China.

This, therefore, neutralises the positive impact on the local steel sub-sector.





点评

<Rally in steel stocks may be short-lived>这是The Edge最新的消息啊!http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/rally-steel-stocks-may-be-short-lived-%E2%80%94-analysts  发表于 2016-4-11 23:50
@Bioosmo 时间才是重点!那是过年前的消息!  发表于 2016-4-11 23:42
看好就买,看坏就卖。 我个人觉得糊涂大是位负责人的人。 B大呢,我个人觉得摧毁比建设容易,希望你能多给建设性的意见,那么大家才会进步。 如果你那么看坏某项领域,甚至卖剩免费票,我只能说那是你个人操作而   发表于 2016-4-11 23:33
支持老大!  发表于 2016-4-11 20:25
和气生财,买卖自负!+1  发表于 2016-4-11 19:38
和气生财,買賣自负.  发表于 2016-4-11 18:42
arionb212大大,新闻有报。《指没钱付裁员赔偿金 美佳钢铁150人薪水减半》http://www.nanyang.com/node/756360?tid=460  发表于 2016-4-11 18:13
如果LC 没了, 中钢的EPS会升天, 因为不用买低质量的HRC了。  发表于 2016-4-11 18:08
糊涂大大的研究很深, Mega 的PPE的确是残旧不堪。 二战复新的 tandem mill .  发表于 2016-4-11 18:03
倒是licom接到TNB sub出去再sub给licom的project!很赶工那种!提前买了大量的铁!做电灯柱那种! 没问得很细!只是过年跟老友吹水谈起!  发表于 2016-4-11 18:02

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发表于 2016-4-12 00:27 | 显示全部楼层
@SeansimD

不是我看坏,是3大投行 - Kenanga , Public Investment Bank 和 MIDF 的数据告诉我们钢铁的复苏还很遥远。
熟悉我的朋友都知道,我只相信数据。其他人怎样唱都好,我只忠于数据。
投行的数据告诉我们中国产能依旧过剩,还会继续Dumping来马来西亚。
除非政府敢得罪中国这个大靠山,直接向中国钢铁证收高额反倾销税。
要不然,马来西亚的钢铁何来春天呢?
靠MRT和LRT吞得下中国的150万吨过剩产能?
相信数据,不要相信人。这是我的经验之谈。



Rally in steel stocks may be short-lived — analysts
By Chester Tay / The Edge Financial Daily   | April 11, 2016 : 9:50 AM MYT   

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on April 11, 2016.

KUALA LUMPUR: The recent recovery in international steel prices has resulted in renewed interest in steel-related companies which has seen share prices climbing over 60% since last month.

However, investment analysts doubt that the share price rally would have legs moving forward, simply because the demand for steel is still relatively weak, in addition to the overcapacity in the industry.

Analysts are cautious about the rally as the uptrend was not driven by fundamental demand.

When contacted, MIDF Research analyst Kelvin Ong stated that buying activities in the past 30 days were mainly driven by the steel suppliers’ inventory replenishment.

“When steel prices are low, producers don’t like to have a high inventory; now that the price has gone up, they have started to stock up for replenishment, so the demand comes from the suppliers, not driven by fundamental demand in steel consumption, like the construction sector,” Ong explained.

He expects share prices of the local steel players to normalise after the rebound.

“Having said that, their profitability will still depend on global raw material prices, but in the short term, with all factors remain unchanged, it (prices) should be normalised now,” he said.

Malacca Securities Sdn Bhd analyst Kenneth Leong concurred, pointing out that although demand remains constant, with higher steel prices, industry players are poised to have better margins.

In March, steel billet and steel bar maker Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (Masteel) saw its share price jumped 69% to 63.5 sen as at March 31, from 37.5 sen in the beginning of the month. It continued to climb to a 11-month high of 68 sen last Thursday, and pared gains to close at 67.5 sen last Friday. It has a market capitalisation of RM164.53 million.

Despite the more conducive steel prices, a Public Investment Bank analyst said they are still insufficient for players like Masteel to break even.

“Masteel’s break-even price should be at about RM1,800 per tonne. The current price is not enough, but it is better than nothing. I would prefer to wait until their first-quarter (ending March 31, 2016) results before forming any opinion,” he said.

Industry players that have enjoyed a similar trend include Ann Joo Resources Bhd and Southern Steel Bhd, which saw their share prices appreciating 63.2% and 42.86% respectively since March 1.

The higher steel prices were initially triggered by China’s announcement on Feb 29 of plans to lay off 1.8 million workers in the coal and steel industries, about 15% of the workforce from both industries, to curb the overcapacity situation.

Since Feb 29, China domestic steel bar average spot prices have increased by 23.67% to 2,623 yuan (RM1,589) per tonne, from 2,121 yuan per tonne.

Nevertheless, in a research note dated April 5, Kenanga Research analyst Sarah Lim reckoned that the cut in China steel production may not be sufficient to support local steel demand due to stiff competition from cheaper imports.

“Although China announced in end January 2016 that its steel production capacity will be cut by 100 to 150 million tonnes, China itself has surplus capacity of circa 300 million tonnes, which means that the cut in production capacity does not necessarily translate into a cut in steel exports from China. This, therefore, neutralises the positive impact on the local steel sub-sector,” she noted.

Last Friday, Ann Joo closed at RM1.02, one sen or 0.97% lower, valuing the group at RM510.58 million, while Southern Steel also fell one sen or 0.99% to RM1, with a market capitalisation of RM419.42 million.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/rally-steel-stocks-may-be-short-lived-%E2%80%94-analysts


点评

留一点空间给大家,日子会过得快乐些,人也健康些 +1  发表于 2016-4-14 13:35
发哥,等股价来证明。  发表于 2016-4-14 13:13
问题是所为的内行人有多内行先?  发表于 2016-4-13 22:19
投行的数据看看就好。。。。其实我更相信内行人 +2  发表于 2016-4-13 17:42
投行的数据看看就好。。。。其实我更相信内行人 +1  发表于 2016-4-13 14:02
投行的数据看看就好。。。。其实我更相信内行人  发表于 2016-4-13 11:18
B大挖掘资料的确有一手,赞!  发表于 2016-4-12 21:37
可能快开波了,大家好好把握机会。  发表于 2016-4-12 09:05
说真的,我在论坛很多时候是潜水的。多数看到的都是B大你在“警惕”别人。 例如:八年的崩盘论。 与其那么有空,放些好股,好数据,好理由,我们来帮你推一推,你觉得怎样?  发表于 2016-4-12 07:09
谢谢B大的提醒,这篇新闻不新了,早上我就看了,哈哈。 数据的确会说话,但是B大你的话语略微剑锋,偶尔让人吃不消。 我所谓的建设是不如B大你来说说对于股市未来走向的看法,这样不是比较好吗?  发表于 2016-4-12 07:04

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发表于 2016-4-13 09:54 | 显示全部楼层
Bioosmo 发表于 2016-4-12 00:27
@SeansimD

不是我看坏,是3大投行 - Kenanga , Public Investment Bank 和 MIDF 的数据告诉我们钢铁的 ...

船开走了。。。。

点评

b大,我很笨的,常常被红猫骗接她的货。。。  发表于 2016-4-14 13:42
B大,我是出了名的收贡品未必办事,但收不到贡品一定不办事的家伙。。。没办法,最近红猫常常和我抢生意做,政府又来GST,只好厚脸皮提醒大大们赏赐。。。  发表于 2016-4-14 13:35
钢铁板块涨得太快太急,怕是无法持久。我是看不透了,静静看戏就好了。  发表于 2016-4-13 22:07
kmpp大大,看你简短的回复就知道你是真正了解的聪明人 XD  发表于 2016-4-13 14:02
先坐在潜水艇,等下个10年。。。 +1  发表于 2016-4-13 14:02
明白,我只是糊涂大和leo大讨贡品吃。。。顶高高很费力的。。。  发表于 2016-4-13 13:59
kmpp, 其实我卖票还有一个考量。2011年好景,LionInd RM2, Annjoo RM3, Cscsteel RM1.6。按Csc的历史PE8的价位,差不多了。如果Csc打破历史,那只能怪我自己眼光不够准。。。呵呵  发表于 2016-4-13 13:51
我顶高高的功劳,奖品呢?  发表于 2016-4-13 13:30
一定要等你大户下船后,怕股票再涨所以故意下order要小鱼争破头卖票,血流成河,我们小鱼到时才能卖?  发表于 2016-4-13 13:16
几时改Law变成小鱼只能上船,不能在你这种大户之前卖票下船?  发表于 2016-4-13 13:15

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发表于 2016-4-14 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
看不明白.....

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发表于 2016-5-16 18:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Bioosmo 于 2016-5-16 18:08 编辑


现在明白了吗?
Cscsteel EPS 2.43
上季的三份一都不到

点评

h2k
排队都买不到。。。  发表于 2016-5-17 22:56
Sorry B DA..=)  发表于 2016-5-17 11:10
完了完了...............1.38了..........  发表于 2016-5-17 09:38
@[linkin]park2, Please read 3750楼,which mean u din really read this楼 & simply just talk only  发表于 2016-5-16 23:05
which mean u din really read the report. Bioosmo.  发表于 2016-5-16 22:52
Not a very good result but still within expecation. cant compare with last quarter where there are half of it from bad debts recover.  发表于 2016-5-16 22:50
如果觉得这季不会比上一季好,卖是对的,如果觉得今年成绩会比去年好,买也是对的。。  发表于 2016-5-16 20:49
这个应该是预料中事。  发表于 2016-5-16 19:01
按季度对比有它的理由, 拿第四季和第一季对比, 有它的局限性, 二月农历年建筑商是不拿货过年的。  发表于 2016-5-16 18:24
库存下跌,未来一季应该会更好。  发表于 2016-5-16 18:17

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发表于 2016-5-18 16:57 | 显示全部楼层
帮老大转贴



CSCSteel Q1'16成绩单
中钢Q1'16业绩比我预期的2.5分稍微少了一点点,只达到2.43分,营业额也比去年同期减少了约25%,主要是因为产品价格与销售比去年同期来得少。无论如何,公司的税后盈利却受惠于原料价格走低(HRC)而暴涨了约60%左右。季报的重点如下:

1。 库存减少了21%左右,处于近年来的低水平。
2。 随着库存减少,每股净现金走高至79分,因此我相信上季度中钢也面对原料不足的问题。
3。 Depreciation或减记减少了13.43%,相信会继续推高公司的profit margin。
4。 管理层把这季度的盈利表现归功于今年初刚执行的GI/PPGI新税务架构,因此我相信下季度的业绩会更好。(This achievement was made possible partly as a result of the Malaysian authorities’ imposition of trade measures on pre-painted galvanised steel and cold rolled steel.)

点评

谢谢分享  发表于 2016-5-22 21:48
tq  发表于 2016-5-19 16:43
谢谢, B大!!!  发表于 2016-5-18 18:07

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发表于 2016-5-23 17:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Bioosmo 于 2016-5-23 17:49 编辑
leo_ksting 发表于 2016-4-13 09:54
船开走了。。。。



请钢铁大师来发表一下
船开走了吗?

據馬來西亞鋼鐵工業聯合會(MISIF)統計,自東協-中國自由貿易區協議(ACFTA)落實后,我國進口自中國的鋼鐵在6年內暴漲281%,由2010年的90萬4000公噸,漲至2015年的344萬公噸。

x 1 我要送花

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