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MALTON-LA,可攻可守。。。

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x 389
发表于 2017-3-6 14:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 heamq 于 2017-3-6 16:40 编辑

MALTON-LA只剩下55%的票还没有被公司以现金赎回,今年6月底赎回25%,然后明年6月底再赎回最后的30%。

LA持有人也可以选择转换去母股,比例1对1,无需加现金。

目前母股站在RM0.92,有可能冲上RM1.00以上,那LA持有人有多一个赚钱的机会。

先看以下的一张图,如果母股始终无法冲上RM1.00,那持有人只好当LA是债卷,老老实实的收利息和赎回,那根据图中的计算,CAGR是3.34%,跟银行FD不相上下。



LA有凭单的特质,可以转换为母股,而且间中又可以收到利息,而且一部分25%/55%今年到期,剩下的30%/55%明年到期,所以需要分开计算。然而,如果用网上的凭单合理价计算机,那是无法算的,因为它有给利息。反而我设计的Binomial算法,在Column AC做小小修改就可以了。



看以下的图,这是算那2017年到期的部分,在Column AC加RM0.015*2=RM0.03,就算出它的合理价是RM1.0423。




看以下的图,它是算那2018年到期的部分,在Column AC加RM0.015*6=RM0.09,就算出它的合理价是RM1.1016。





那么综合起来,LA的合理价是=(25%*RM1.0423+30%*RM1.1016)/55% = RM1.0746。

我今天早上以RM1.03的价钱买了80800股LA,大家买卖自负。

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点评

请看第一张图,LA每年给RM0.06的利息,分四次,每三个月一次。  发表于 2017-3-7 11:58
请问如果公司赎回是以RM1,那我们买价RM1.03如何来赚?  发表于 2017-3-6 23:51

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发表于 2017-3-6 20:17 | 显示全部楼层


今天母股close RM0.96
我的margin account里唯一一只股就是Malton-LA

@随便走走 @storm0227

点评

至少不会输钱。。  发表于 2017-3-7 12:00
我搭 B大的船 XD 多谢 B大的邀请  发表于 2017-3-7 10:36
没子弹了 b大XD  发表于 2017-3-6 21:16

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发表于 2017-3-7 15:53 | 显示全部楼层
heamq 兄, 你买入1.03 6月股息 是1.5分
但是赎回价是1块钱。。 无形中亏了1.5分

不知你有没有考虑在内?

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x 389
 楼主| 发表于 2017-3-7 16:31 | 显示全部楼层
暴力队长 发表于 2017-3-7 15:53
heamq 兄, 你买入1.03 6月股息 是1.5分
但是赎回价是1块钱。。 无形中亏了1.5分

有啊,你看第一张图,就是算综合起来的回酬。

今年六月赎回的那部分是可以收2次1.5分共3.0分,而明年六月赎回的那部分是可以收到6次共9.0分的利息的。

点评

看到了。 谢谢提点。  发表于 2017-3-7 16:35

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 楼主| 发表于 2017-3-8 13:52 | 显示全部楼层
果然有炒股的风格。。。
根据刚刚午休的市价,做个update给大家看看,
MALTON=RM1.02
LA=RM1.04
WB=RM0.295





参考上图,如果以市价RM1.04买进,包赢的回酬跌到CAGR 2.24%。





参考上图,今年6月赎回的部分,LA的合理价是RM1.0960。





参考上图,明年6月赎回的部分,LA的合理价是RM1.1627。

两者统合起来,LA的价值=(25*1.0960+30*1.1627)/(25+30)= RM1.1324。






参考上图,除了母股和LA,还有一个WB,而且这个WB交易量比母股还高,那也该算算它的合理价,知道多一点,当要做决定时是有帮助的,哇。。合理价才RM0.1684,而市价已经高在RM0.295,0.2950/0.1684=175%。

干嘛会这样的呢?或许基于以下的原因:
1)有人知道母股将会被庄家大炒特炒,而WB的杠杆比LA高,以巴仙率来算,买WB当然会赚更多?
2)其实什么都不是,只是不知所谓的人乱乱炒而已,牛市时,本来就没有理智的?


最后,买卖自负。。

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点评

母股RM1.04了,再涨就要带动包赚的LA一起上了  发表于 2017-3-8 15:54

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发表于 2017-3-10 15:24 | 显示全部楼层
heamq 发表于 2017-3-8 13:52
果然有炒股的风格。。。
根据刚刚午休的市价,做个update给大家看看,
MALTON=RM1.02



母股最高1。11
LA要挑战1。06了

点评

果然动到1。10了  发表于 2017-3-13 10:08
母股如果稳定在1。15,LA很快会去到1。10。  发表于 2017-3-10 18:15
干嘛要把LA在折价的情况之下卖出?干嘛不拿LA去换成母股才卖?大概是怕母股很快就掉头跌,来不及换,所以还要等母股稳定在1.11左右一阵子,LA才会跟上去吧。  发表于 2017-3-10 16:26

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发表于 2017-3-12 16:29 | 显示全部楼层
heamq 兄,请问拿LA去换成母股需要多久时间...

点评

我没有换过MALTON的,所以不肯定,不过我以前我有换过其他公司的,一两个星期吧,你可以打电话去问它的Registrar。  发表于 2017-3-12 19:31

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发表于 2017-3-13 09:41 | 显示全部楼层
今天 called Registrar 换成母股需要 Max T+8day...

Registrar's Name and Contact:
SHAREWORKS SDN BHD
No. 2-1, Jalan Sri Hartamas 8Sri Hartamas50480KualaLumpur
Tel:0362011120
Fax:0362013121

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发表于 2017-3-13 14:05 | 显示全部楼层
@随便走走

1.14了

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 楼主| 发表于 2017-3-14 16:26 | 显示全部楼层
不玩了,刚才以RM1.14卖完出去。。

点评

怕换到回来时,母股已经跌下去了。 其实我对这个公司没有什么信心的,只是因为LA可以现金赎回,基本上没有风险,所以才会买它,可是呀,现在1.14的价格,比现金赎回1.00已经有很大距离了。  发表于 2017-3-14 19:19
做么没有考虑转换去母股才卖掉? 这样风险比较高?  发表于 2017-3-14 18:31

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发表于 2017-3-15 17:12 | 显示全部楼层
F_F@PANG 发表于 2017-3-13 09:41
今天 called Registrar 换成母股需要 Max T+8day...

Registrar's Name and Contact:

LA明天要挑战1。20了

点评

今天不是有到1.20吗?  发表于 2017-3-15 18:35

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发表于 2017-3-16 03:51 | 显示全部楼层
Bioosmo 发表于 2017-3-15 17:12
LA明天要挑战1。20了

我已经申请转换母股了, 希望不会因为貪心想多赚而损失
       

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发表于 2017-3-16 18:11 | 显示全部楼层
Loan Stock Interest
MALTON BERHAD

EX-date
29 Mar 2017
Entitlement date
31 Mar 2017
Entitlement time
05:00 PM
Entitlement subject
Loan Stock Interest
Entitlement description
23rd Quarterly Interest Payment in respect of RM70,585,567 nominal value 7-year 6% Redeemable Convertible Secured Loan Stocks of Malton Berhad
Period of interest payment
02 Jan 2017   to   01 Apr 2017
Financial Year End
30 Jun 2017
Share transfer book & register of members will be
31 Mar 2017   to   31 Mar 2017 closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlement
Registrar or Service Provider name, address, telephone no
SHAREWORKS SDN BHDNo. 2-1, Jalan Sri Hartamas 8Sri Hartamas50480Kuala LumpurTel:0362011120Fax:0362013121
Payment date
07 Apr 2017
a.Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before 4:00 pm in respect of transfers
31 Mar 2017
b.Securities deposited into the Depositor's Securities Account before 12:30 pm in respect of securities exempted from mandatory deposit
c. Securities bought on the Exchange on a cum entitlement basis according to the Rules of the Exchange.
Number of new shares/securities issued (units) (If applicable)
0
Entitlement indicator
Percentage
Entitlement in Percentage (%)
6
Par Value

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x 1
发表于 2017-3-30 15:33 | 显示全部楼层
昨天转换完成 合计用了 13工作日.....

费用如下
Postage – RM4.00 (per counter)
Handling Fees – RM10.00 (per counter)
Registrar Charges – RM21.60...

今天 1.34 我也下船...  

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发表于 2017-4-4 17:42 | 显示全部楼层
F_F@PANG 发表于 2017-3-30 15:33
昨天转换完成 合计用了 13工作日.....

费用如下


1.37了喔
再上我就换WCT

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发表于 2017-4-5 22:41 | 显示全部楼层
Bioosmo 发表于 2017-4-4 17:42
1.37了喔
再上我就换WCT

Malton的姐妹公司WCT又拿到新合同

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发表于 2017-5-4 21:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Bioosmo 于 2017-5-4 22:00 编辑
Bioosmo 发表于 2017-3-6 20:17
今天母股close RM0.96
我的margin account里唯一一只股就是Malton-LA


@随便走走 @storm0227

发布于 2017年05月3日 • 最后更新 one day ago
WCT 马顿若合併 壮大规模提升竞争力


(吉隆坡3日讯)分析员指出,倘若WCT控股(WCT,9679,主板建筑股)和马顿(MALTON,6181,主板产业股)合併,可收窄它与重量级建筑和产业股--金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)与怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑股)的市值及估值之间的差距。

艾芬黄氏资本分析员表示,2家公司若合併,将创造市值高达35亿令吉的公司。

金务大和怡保工程的市值,分别为129亿令吉和126亿令吉。

早在去年11月2日,该分析员在报告中已不排除WCT控股和马顿合併的可能性,因为共同大股东丹斯里林晓春可借此整合所持有的2家上市公司相似的业务。

产生协同效应

林晓春分别持有WCT控股和马顿的18%及35%股权。由于2家公司都有较高的负债,假设要合併可能会通过换股的方式进行,而合併将会产生协同效应。

换股活动也将允许林晓春整合在2家公司的股权。根据2家公司的价格或账面价值为1倍计算,1股WCT控股相等于1.3股马顿股票,料将使林晓春在WCT控股的股权,从18%,提高至24%。

「我们相信,合併可结合2家公司的人才、在各地区建立更广泛的产业产品、并利用当前的产业整合趋势,提升竞争力。」

分析员称,马顿是一家涉及综合发展项目的利基产业发展商和建筑承包商。它主要是透过大股东林晓春旗下Pavillion品牌,发展35亿令吉的武吉加里尔城(Bukit Jalil City)。

马顿在吉隆坡、雪州、柔佛边佳兰拥有381英亩的地库,毛发展总值为83亿令吉,可维持未来10至15年的产业发展活动。马顿建筑和管理项目业务尚有10亿令吉的订单。

「武吉加里尔城是马顿的旗舰项目,包括一个区域性购物商场称为Pavilion Bukit Jalil以及高楼住宅产业。」

其首次于2015年推出发展总值17亿令吉的商店和服务式公寓,大部份已出售。目前10亿令吉的未入账销售主要来自该项目。潜在脱售该商场的股权给策略投资者,可释放该商场的价值,并可降低高企于63%的净负债。

分析员没有给予马顿任何投资评级,但认为其合理价为1.48令吉。而WCT控股,分析员则将其2017至2019财政年的每股盈利预测,分别下修2%至13%,以反映较低的建筑和产业盈利。

分析员预期建筑业务取得较低的按进度付款,主要是因为去年所竞标的新项目大部份尚处于初步阶段,以及新管理层对发展计划的审核导致新产业项目推介被延迟。

整体而言,分析员维持WCT控股「买进」投资评级,目标价为2.46令吉。

WCT - REIT Deal, Share Placement As Catalysts.

Its next phase of its de-gearing initiative is the REIT deal in mid-2017.

The property market remains tough with no new launches planned (Till mid April 2017); the RM500 million internal sales target could be at risk if year-to-date (YTD) sales of RM133 million lose momentum.

Job visibility looks good, with more LRT3 and MRT2 packages up for tender.

A share placement overhang and uncertainty about the REIT deal could cap the upside to its share price.

Key points from management include: i) the de-gearing initiative continues to be the priority, and other land bank disposal moves are also on the cards; ii) the RM500 million property sales target remains intact amid a still-challenging market, with no new launches planned in the second half of 2017 (2H17); iii) WCT is upbeat on job flows and targets to secure a larger-value LRT3 package; and iv) the second tranche of the share placement is likely in 2H17.

With a 0.9 times net gearing level that is at the higher range of comparable contractors/property developers.

Medium-term focus continues to be the group’s REIT plans. The unchanged guidance was that the RM1.1 billion REIT deal could be realised either by the formation of a new REIT vehicle or an outright asset injection into an existing REIT. Under the new REIT vehicle scenario, WCT will likely retain a 30% to 40% stake. Observers expect more developments by mid-2017.

WCT clinched an RM186 million contract to undertake package TD1, which is the construction of Johan Setia Depot (Phase 1) for the LRT3 project — its first contract win for 2017.

WCT has also tendered for other larger-value LRT3 packages worth RM400 million to RM500 million. It is also bidding for more MRT2 jobs, though likely smaller than the RM893 million package V204 secured in late 2016.

Management remains upbeat about its job flow prospects in 2H17.

Based on optimistic scenario and assuming no delays in the REIT deal, WCT should be able to raise RM1.2 billion to RM1.3 billion from the REIT (estimated RM660 million in net proceeds), RM300 million to RM400 million from the land sale, and RM221 million from the share placement by end-2017.

Assume WCT retains an about 40% stake in the REIT.

It is speculated that the placement will be to a strong strategic partner who will come to add value to WCT.

Observers expect WCT’s strong job flow outlook to be mitigated by property sales risks and uncertainty surrounding its REIT plans.

In November 2016, its original founders sold out to tycoon Tan Sri Desmond Lim Siew Choon, in a transaction valued at RM2.50 per share, for a total of RM614.28mil. About three months later (Jan 2017), the company has proposed to place out up to 10% of its existing issued and paid-up share capital, or approximately 125 million shares. The company hopes to raise about RM212.5mil based on an indicative issue price of RM1.70 per share.

It will allocate RM80mil to repay bank borrowings and RM130mil for working capital.

WCT counts some big local funds as its substantial shareholders. Based on Bursa filings, Lembaga Tabung Haji has a 9.83% stake in WCT followed by the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) with 8.03%, Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera with 6.29% and the Retirement Fund Inc (KWAP) with 6.3%.

With a combined stake slightly less than one-third, these four government-linked investment funds can yield significant clout.

Speculation that the company may opt to bring in a strategic shareholder which could be a shot in the arm to alleviate cash-flow constraints. Lim - who is synonymous with the Pavilion Group of malls and Malton - had previously roped in strategic partners for his other big ventures.

WCT's debt borrowings stood at RM2.59bil now (Jan 2017).

Earlier strategy to dispose of remaining non-core assets that kicked off with the sale of Ascent Paradigm to the EPF for RM347mil could be shelved or take longer than expected.

WCT’s construction division has an outstanding orderbook of about RM5bil. Out of this, RM755mil relates to the Tun Razak Exchange infrastructure works which does not generate any cash flow, as profits will be used to acquire a plot of land there.

WCT will need funds for working capital related to some of its newly secured sizeable jobs such as the MRT2 (RM896mil), Pan Borneo Highway (RM389mil), several packages at Rapid and the development cost for Paradigm Mall JB, Lead Residence Klang and Waltz Residence KL.

WCT’s property division has developments in the Klang Valley, Iskandar Malaysia and Sabah, while it also owns three malls and a hotel as part of its property investment assets.

But there are synergistic opportunities that can be created with Lim’s 28% stake in PavREIT and 41.2%-owned Malton. The fact that Lim paid a premium for his WCT stake indicates that he may have grand plans for the company. Since his entry, Lim has assumed the helm of WCT as executive chairman.

The company also saw several changes to the board. WCT’s co-founder and previous managing director, Peter Taing Kim Hwa, still owns a small stake of 0.36% in the company.


Bandar Malaysia

Tan Sri Desmond Lim’s Group of companies (WCT, MALTON) might set to benefit from the termination of the Bandar Malaysia deal between MoF (through TRX City) and IWH-CREC. This is due to:

1. Back in Dec-15, out of 40 tenderers, there were only 2 strong tenderers – (1) TS Desmond Lim with his Qatar back and (2) TS Lim Kang Hoo (IWEH) together with CREC.

2. Although TS Desmond Lim eventually lost out the bid,  news sources mentioned that TS Desmond Lim had inserted a bid valuing Bandar Malaysia lands at RM15b; higher than the RM13b valuation bid by IWH-CREC. Hence, strongly believe Desmond Lim is the next best tenderer being second in line.

3. WCT (19% owned by TS Desmond) has already secured the MRT2 viaduct works (Package V204) from Bandar Malaysia towards Kampung Muhibah worth RM896m back in 2016.

4. Also, WCT had previously in Oct 2015 received a letter of award from 1MDB Real Estate S/B (currently TRX City S/B) for the completion of infrastructure and roadway works at the TRX worth RM755m. This infra works is close to the vicinity of Bandar Malaysia and hence this forms a strong working relationship between WCT, Bandar Malaysia and its owner – TRX City S/B.

Bandar Malaysia to get new master developer
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2017/05/236220/bandar-malaysia-get-new-master-developer

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发表于 2017-5-4 21:25 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2017-5-5 18:22 | 显示全部楼层
malton and wct 2017 new high!

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