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[公司专区] 2054 TDM 嘉隆發展

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发表于 2010-8-22 12:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
公司的背景:

TDM Berhad was formed in 1965 and was listed on Bursa Malaysia in 1969. The company is presently listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia.

TDM Group's core businesses are in oil palm plantation and healthcare.

The Group's plantation division is involved in the development and management of oil palm plantations and in the processing of crude palm oil and palm kernel. The division currently manages approximately 37,000 hectares of oil palm plantations and owns two palm oil mills in Terengganu. In 2007, the Group ventured into the setting-up of oil palm plantations in Kalimantan, Indonesia.

The Group's healthcare division operates three specialist hospitals, namely the Kelana Jaya Medical Centre in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Kuantan Medical Centre in Kuantan, Pahang, and Kuala Terengganu Specialist Hospital in Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu.

公司的组织结构:



30大股东股权与流动膘:


公司的董事:
http://www.tdmberhad.com.my/ci3.html
http://www.tdmberhad.com.my/ci2.html

公司的红股与股息记录:


过去7年的图表:


糊涂与TCS的分享:
http://tengkhan.blogspot.com/search/label/TDM
http://timcheeso.blogspot.com/search/label/tdm

棕油,医院与家畜业,可是一种"必须品"的生意.
就是这个简单的原因,它就成为我的其中一个'研究品'.
下个贴将会讲解公司的基本功与深入的研究.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 16:46 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 whytoocare 于 2010-8-22 18:20 编辑

以2010两季的成绩表,看来全年少少可以去到eps=30.
以forward esp=30与RM2.15股价来计算:
1) 公司的Dividend Policy>30% profit payout. 所以DY最少会有3%. (但我期待有50%的profit payout --> DY=5%)
    Dividend Policy: http://www.tdmberhad.com.my/ir.html
2) 现在的PE=7.17. 历史的高峰期,去到PE=13. 如果PE=10,股价=RM3.00.


从以下的图表看,棕油与医院业的收入明显的在上升. 家畜与其他业比较不稳定.
1) 下半年的棕油收成将会比上半年高.(将会解释在Production Output与CPO Price部分)
2) 2010年,医院业年预测将会第一次达到双为数. Kuantan Medical Centre的新分行预测将会在2012完工.
3) 家畜与其他业,两者加起来大概是公司收入的27%. 公司之前有提及有要除去家畜业.
个人给它打个3.5分.如果不要算2008的成绩(因为棕油价暴长),我会给它4.5分.



同行业比较:

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评分

参与人数 1威望 +2 收起 理由
大时代 + 2 谢谢分享

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 17:05 | 显示全部楼层
TDM TO BUILD RM120M KUANTAN HOSPITAL

CLASSIFICATION: PRESS RELEASES/REPLIES/DIGEST
TYPE: News Digest
06 August 2010

Terengganu state-owned company, TDM will build a RM120m 7-storey hospital for Kuantan Medical Centre (KMC). The new facility will be equipped with the latest technology, 150 beds based on the single-room concept and serviced by 33 consultants.

The hospital will have five operating theatres and 12 intensive care units. The existing hospital has 84 beds and 18 consultants. The new hospital is expected to be completed in 2012.

TDM's CORE BUSINESSES
Healthcare is one of TDM's three core businesses apart from plantation and food industries. Chairman, ROSLAN AWANG CHIK said there was need for the Company to meet the increasing demand for quality heathcare and medical services in line with higher standards of living .... There is also a need to make it financially reasonable for the public to have access to the services ...." he said on Jul 27, 2010 at the ground breaking ceremony.

ROSLAN said that the number of patients at KUANTAN MEDICAL CENTRE had risen by 16%, from 48,670 in 2008 to 56,396 in 2009. " .... In the first half of this year (2010), the number of patients was 31,749 compared to 27,232 in the corresponding period last year (2009) ...." he said.

He also said the Healthcare Division contributed 20% and 11% to Group Revenue and Profit respectively for FYE Dec 2009. ROSLAN said TDM now operated two medium-sized private hospitals, Kelana Jaya Medical Centre in Selangor and Kuala Terengganu Specialist Hospital in Terengganu.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
TDM to expand land holding in Kalimantan

By June Ramlee
Published: 2010/05/22

TDM Bhd (2054), a plantation group owned by the Terengganu state government, plans to expand its land area in Kalimantan, Indonesia, in the next seven to nine years.

The chairman of the group, Senator Datuk Roslan Awang Chik, said the company now has a total of 25,000ha in Kalimantan for oil palm plantation and plans to increase it by 80 per cent.

"In Malaysia, we find that land is scarce and that is why we are venturing out and the best place to do that is in Kalimantan and we plan to double the size in the next seven to nine years," Roslan told a press conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.

The company also has 32,000ha in Terengganu.
Among its other operations, TDM is building new hospitals. The latest hospital the company is building is at Indera Mahkota in Kuantan, Pahang, for RM200 million, which will be completed in 2012.

Meanwhile, the company is still looking for a buyer for its poultry business.

"We are not looking to dispose of it immediately as we are looking for a suitable buyer, whom the farmers can work with. Right now we have at least four parties who are interested to buy over the business," Roslan said.

Earlier, the company reported that its first quarter net profit surged 89 per cent to RM55.9 million this year. This was mainly due to higher yields from its oil palm plantation business.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... cles/jrtdm/Article/

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 whytoocare 于 2010-8-22 18:56 编辑

Production Output

很明显的,下半年的棕油收成将会比上半年高.

1) 3 Years FFB Trend


2) 3 Years CPO Trend


3) 3 Years PK Trend


Palm Oil Price

这季棕油价在高处.
再配合下半年的棕油高收成的因素,所以我估计2010年少少可达到eps=30.

1) 2010 Monthly Trend


2) Past 5 Years Monthly Trend


3) Past 25 Years Monthly Trend


CPO Futures

希望未来少少可以保持在RM2500-RM2600.
我个人觉得CPO价比较不会下降,只会上升. (看下一个贴了:Bio-diesel link Petroleum.)
*如果超种,那又是另一个故事了*


http://www.palmoilhq.com/crude-palm-oil-cpo-futures/

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 17:56 | 显示全部楼层
Bio-Diesel Link Petroluem

对不起... 必须自己读.

http://www.mpoc.org.my/upload/Biodiesel_Link_v5i4_4i.pdf

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 17:59 | 显示全部楼层
Malaysia To Keep 5% Biodiesel Blend, But Delay Plan To 2011

February 23, 2010 19:18 UTC+8

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)–Malaysia has decided to stick to an original plan to mandate a 5% palm oil-based methyl ester blend in conventional diesel sold in the country, but its implementation could be pushed back further to next year, a government official said Tuesday.

The Commodities Ministry is expected to make an announcement in the next 10 days after it was recently discussed at a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Najib Razak, the official said.

The Malaysian government had drawn criticism from the biodiesel industry after a move earlier to dilute the proposed blend to 3% in a bid to contain government subsidies needed for the program.

Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok told Dow Jones Newswires in October that the government would need to spend MYR250 million a year to subsidize a 5% blend.

The original plan was to start using blended diesel in government vehicles, followed by its expansion to include industrial and transport sectors and eventually cover all diesel sold in the country by February 2010. However, its implementation missed several deadlines before the government last year said it may consider a lower blend instead.

But bio-diesel makers argued a 3% blend won't be enough to support the sector that is already facing waning demand from major bio-diesel buyers in Europe and the U.S. due to restrictive import policies and doubts about the product's carbon limiting potential.

According to the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysia's 10 bio-diesel plants already have a capacity to produce two million tons of bio-diesel a year. But most plants are running below capacity or have shut down amid poor demand and high palm oil prices.

The product is not commercially viable without government subsidies if feedstock prices are too high. According to biodiesel producers and analysts, at current crude palm oil prices of around MYR2,600/ton, crude oil would need to trade around $100 per barrel or above to make bio-diesel viable without subsidies.

Palm oil prices have risen 25% to MYR 2,635 since October 2009 as demand picked up after last year's global economic melt-down while crude oil has been languishing around $80/bbl.

But the government has been reluctant to subsidize palm bio-diesel on fears that rising feedstock prices may add to its subsidy bill and create larger deficits.

In 2009, Malaysia had a fiscal deficit of 7.4% of gross domestic product due to existing subsidies on fuel and essential items. The fiscal stimulus packages announced at the height of the global financial crisis also added to the government's spending bill.

The blending program was conceived mainly as a means to boost demand and push up prices when palm oil prices dipped to around MYR1,800/ton in 2008, falling some 60% from a record high of MYR4,486/ton.

A 5% biodiesel mandate can use up around 500,000 tons of palm-based biodiesel annually, compared with an estimated 300,000 tons for the lower blend, biodiesel producers said. Malaysia produces around 18 million tons of palm oil a year and most of it is sold as edible oil.

-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires; +603 2026 1233; shie-lynn.lim@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 23, 2010 06:18 ET (11:18 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOil ... delay-plan-to-2011/

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 18:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 whytoocare 于 2010-8-22 18:16 编辑

Plantation Statistics


很累啊... 不写了.
本人只有一粒半吧了.
目的只是纯粹分享.也希望各位高手指教,让我学习.
谢谢.

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发表于 2010-8-22 18:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcs 于 2010-8-22 18:45 编辑


图表中的 41072 ,是 2010 june 的数据。 (建议你应该把全部数据,提前一格)




论坛能和你分享TDM的,恐怕只剩下糊涂兄了,我已经很久没留意它了。
原因很简单,因为我发现TDM的产量已经饱和,而我对产量饱和的种植公司定的标准较高。

TDM的产量最多只有20,如果你有读蛋散的帖子,utdplnt随随便便就有26,以20的产量来说是很不安全的。





这是我的旧评语:

我曾分析过TDM,可惜的是,TDM是家运气很差的公司,当然你要说管理不当也可以。但是我比较偏向它的运气。

TDM曾是A &W 的经营者,由于亏损,好像直接卖给了KUB。

TDM曾脱售亏损的医疗单位,可以说它的记录不佳。

TDM养鸡的死亡率比一般业者高,好像是4%,比平均的2%高 ,但最近有改善了。

TDM的园丘全部在风水不好的登州,登州的产量只有14。

TDM 的healthcare是专科来的,和h1n1无关,它是分析血液的。还有婴儿整形,妇产,泌尿科。耳鼻喉如果不是很严重,也不会去看专科的。

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发表于 2010-8-22 18:52 | 显示全部楼层
 terenggunaTDM FFB
 
cpo 产量
产量
2006jan21,89627,212.49
223,71924,934.69
328,50326,066.47
430,42227,470.62
531,01529,629.90
627,23630,841.17
735,38140,816.25
841,70051,739.08
946,21055,871.28
1038,46844,567.78
1148,26056,417.58
1233,88338,435.49
2007jan29,28235,146.79
224,62223,918.69
326,23222,805.93
430,26725,421.85
533,33332,701.06
634,06836,254.85
740,23949,591.13
849,33062,939.48
948,00259,854.18
1044,82155,172.31
1147,91063,966.55
1239,05948,120.04
2008jan34,31941,593.60
230,39730,557.14
335,21634,317.90
435,83233,863.53
538,20740,025.18
638,86246,460.34
744,45961,015.87
849,42761,826.68
949,81656,169.56
1052,90669,977.08
1152,55162,945.31
1240,63847,644.25
2009jan30,96240,453.96
229,07930,896.16
333,31635,396.74
432,42933,314.14
534,95233,989.76
634,05933,989.88
739,51040,570.48
843,93749,391.64
945,58955,390.11
1063,20268,808.91
1144,34252,210.92
1238,89855,344.91
2010jan33,23442,267.42
230,40933,745.69
337,74740,207.72
434,30032,184.92
533,79131,569.52
639,37141,071.87
748,116?

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发表于 2010-8-22 19:14 | 显示全部楼层
如上图, 登家楼的cpo产量是上升的,但TDM的产量已经在一年前饱和。
不过如果你是用 6 month moving average, 答案比较没这么明显, 你可以cut 到excel 处理。

2008 july - 2009 june
terenggunaTDM FFB

cpo 产量
产量
484,594567,619


2009 july - 2010 june
terenggunaTDM FFB

cpo 产量
产量
484,330542,764



这段期间,登家楼产量下跌不到1%, TDM 产量下跌4.4%。

很可能登家楼的土地增加了(不是不可能),不过最新资料还没有更新,所以我查不到。
也可能是别州的FFB拿到登家楼提炼,或者登家楼的FFB拿到别州提炼。

但你可以参考这个,答案我还不知道:
http://econ.mpob.gov.my/economy/ei_monyield.htm

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 19:24 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 whytoocare 于 2010-8-22 19:27 编辑

10# tcs

哦... 被捉到了... 改了.

我曾分析过TDM,可惜的是,TDM是家运气很差的公司,当然你要说管理不当也可以。但是我比较偏向它的运气。

TDM曾是A &W 的经营者,由于亏损,好像直接卖给了KUB。

TDM曾脱售亏损的医疗单位,可以说它的记录不佳。

TDM养鸡的死亡率比一般业者高,好像是4%,比平均的2%高 ,但最近有改善了。

TDM的园丘全部在风水不好的登州,登州的产量只有14。

TDM 的healthcare是专科来的,和h1n1无关,它是分析血液的。还有婴儿整形,妇产,泌尿科。耳鼻喉如果不是很严重,也不会去看专科的。


看来管理臣开始走向真切的路线了.
卖家畜业,再扩张油棕园与正在发展医院业.
但是全部东西都必须花费时间.


谢谢你的图... 一目了然!
可以在第八贴看到,多数油棕园是处以成熟的阶段.
http://www.investalks.com/bbs/vi ... mp;page=1#pid176722

我的时间没浪费掉!
TCS兄让我学到很多东西.
谢谢!

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发表于 2010-8-22 19:27 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcs 于 2010-8-22 19:39 编辑
terengguna 是 Terengganu 对吗?
想问,你是如何找到每个州的产量呢?


terengguna的spelling,是根据mpob写的,只要你看懂就可以了。

这里有所有的资料。
http://econ.mpob.gov.my/economy/EID_web.htm

【Production】,【Production of Crude Palm Oil】

通常收割了的FFB都会送去最近的提炼厂,较少有跨州提炼的事,不过你可以做更仔细的计算,验证我的话到底对不对。


另外,我不根据 TDM CPO production 计算是因为这个数据是提炼厂的output,并不能验证产量。

P/S , TDM 的种植地,全部都在登家楼, 占了登家楼总种植面积的 1/6 , 因此我选州属来比较。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 19:44 | 显示全部楼层
13# tcs

果然是棕油高手.

我想问一个无知的问题.
提炼FFB = 得到 CPO & PK吗?
如果是,不能整粒FFB卖吗?价钱太底?如果可以整粒卖,价钱哪里找?

谢谢你的link...很有用.

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发表于 2010-8-22 19:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcs 于 2010-8-22 20:12 编辑

提炼FFB = 得到 CPO & PK吗?  对。

FFB的价钱,是根据 20% 的cpo 和 4% 的pk计算出来的,这个公式是自己发明的。如果要拿到这个价钱,必须是大公司。

对于小园主来说, 要扣除暴利税, 东海岸价格更低, 厂商要求milling margin ,因此FFB收购价较低。

要求得FFB的价格,你点击price,依次寻找【MPOB Daily FFB Reference Price Summary By Region】,不要去管 19%, 18%, 17%,因为这是古老的数据,没有实质意义。

TDM的园丘分布很散,它不能确保每一粒FFB能送到自己的厂提炼,因此它必须和它的大股东(登州政府)买卖FFB(有买有卖)。


另外我想强调一点为什么我这么担心低产量的公司,CPO价格最近不是很好吗?
没错CPO价格是不错,但有没有想过这可能是泡沫?
今年年头的金属产品和baltic index出现泡沫。
可可,小麦出现泡沫, 因为旱灾和水灾,死了很多农作物,相续的,肥料公司和种子公司股价也出现泡沫。
你“觉得”世界的天气反复无常会造成粮食危机吗? 供需缺口是多少?没有人有答案,既然没有答案,我们就不能预测软商品会继续上升。
我用“觉得”是因为我的功课还没有做到这种程度,我只能靠图表。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 20:13 | 显示全部楼层
15# tcs

FFB的价钱,是根据 20% 的cpo 和 4% 的pk计算出来的,这个公式是自己发明的。如果要拿到这个价钱,必须是大公司。

对于小园主来说, 要扣除暴利税, 东海岸价格更低, 厂商要求milling margin ,因此FFB收购价较低,你点击price,依次是寻找【MPOB Daily FFB Reference Price Summary By Region】。


哦...明白.谢谢.

想知道...棕油价在07-08年的暴涨,除了石油价的原因,还有别的吗?

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发表于 2010-8-22 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcs 于 2010-8-22 20:24 编辑

16# whytoocare

07-08年, 世界在炒粮食危机, 因此才有这个涨潮。
油价也是原因,因为生资能源造成。


最近, 小麦涨了 50% , 黄豆涨 20% , 黄豆油涨 7% ,棕油也跟着涨。可以说没有什么原因,也不用理由 ,全凭炒家和粮商想法。
实际资料可参考 http://www.cmegroup.com/  。
可是问题是,今年好像不会发生粮食危机。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-22 20:37 | 显示全部楼层
15# tcs

另外我想强调一点为什么我这么担心低产量的公司,CPO价格最近不是很好吗?
没错CPO价格是不错,但有没有想过这可能是泡沫?
今年年头的金属产品和baltic index出现泡沫。
可可,小麦出现泡沫, 因为旱灾和水灾,死了很多农作物,相续的,肥料公司和种子公司股价也出现泡沫。
你“觉得”世界的天气反复无常会造成粮食危机吗? 供需缺口是多少?没有人有答案,既然没有答案,我们就不能预测软商品会继续上升。


泡沫我就不敢讲也不懂.
但是我最怕的就是连环的效应.
坏的东西一个传一个,一两下就把整个规律弄得凌凌乱乱.
糖价1KG起两毛...一杯水起一毛.

所以比较'鸡肯'(怕)的我都会拉必须品的消费股来做长期投资.
公司不转价给消费者,消费者赚咯.
公司转价给消费者,消费者就去投资那间公司咯.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-27 13:30 | 显示全部楼层
Strong ringgit to hurt palm oil refiners?

Written by Niluksi Koswanage   
Thursday, 26 August 2010 22:50

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil refining margins in No 2 producer Malaysia could turn negative after the ringgit hit a 13-year high last week — a scenario that might see refineries cut back on output.

The ringgit, Asia’s second-best performer, has rallied 8.9% so far this year thanks to recent moves to allow the currency to be used more widely, interest rate hikes and an inflow of funds into local bonds.

But the appreciating currency hastened a sell-off in benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures last week, triggering concerns that refiners may take up less crude palm oil (CPO) priced in the ringgit for processing and export in US dollars.

Here are some questions and answers on the currency’s impact on Malaysia’s US$25 billion (RM78.5 billion) palm oil industry:

Can further ringgit rise hurt refining margins?
Refiners say the ringgit hitting 3.0 per dollar from 3.1370 now will erase the current US$38-US$45 a tonne margin made from producing refined, bleached and deodorised palm olein, which is widely used as a cooking oil.

That level for the ringgit may not be far off. Analysts say the ringgit may rise to 3-3.05 per dollar in the medium term as the Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to release forex controls with other nations in trade settlements.

Any 0.3% increase in the ringgit will erode refining margins by US$3 a tonne, refiners and traders said.

Does the ringgit largely determine margins?
To some extent, but margins are also determined by availability of CPO and its end-products as well as demand.

Refined palm oil products rallied over the past two months due to tight supplies after refiners trimmed production in the second quarter to below 70% of the 22.8 million tonnes of total capacity versus 74% in the first quarter.

Improving CPO output from September or October may lead to a stock buildup and weigh on feedstock prices, prompting refineries to process more.

But aiming for margins above the breakeven point of US$40-US$50 a tonne will depend on securing big orders from top consumers, India and China.

In these two Asian giants, demand has slowed and buyers are relying on domestic oilseeds or importing more soyoil that has narrowed its premium to RBD palm olein.

What is the impact on the palm oil industry?
Palm oil firms with refineries and estates could focus more on selling CPO rather than refined products to avoid further costs.

Profits could get dented for planters with extensive refineries such as Singapore’s Wilmar if the ringgit strengthens. The firm posted its first quarterly decline in four years due to tight edible oil supply.

Winners are more likely to be firms focusing solely on oil palm estates such as IJM PLANTATION []S BHD [] and Genting Plantations Bhd. Their profits may grow as they focus on selling CPO priced in ringgit. — Reuters

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... m-oil-refiners.html

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-7 23:47 | 显示全部楼层
Palm Oil Ends Up Higher On Lower Output, Soyoil

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Monday on spillover support from gains in China and a bullish outlook for soyoil, trade participants said.

They added that concerns over dry weather in the U.S. adversely affecting the upcoming soybean harvest provided support.

The benchmark November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR50 higher at MYR 2,620 a metric ton after hitting an intraday high of MYR2,630.

CPO production in Malaysia and Indonesia is estimated to be significantly lower on month in August and early September as many plantation workers are on leave amid the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a Singapore-based trading executive said.

Another trader said there will be downward pressure on prices only if Malaysia's end-month closing stocks are estimated above 1.6 million tons.

Malaysia's end-month palm oil stocks were estimated at 1.52 million tons, up 7% on month in July.

Malaysia usually puts out figures on production, exports and end-month closing stocks of palm oil by the 10th of every month but the numbers for August are likely to be delayed because of the upcoming Muslim festival of Eid.

Most traders put immediate resistance at MYR2,630/ton.

Traders expect prices to move within the current range of MYR2,550- MYR2,620/ton until next week due to thin trade participation.

Many among them are also awaiting fresh leads from key soybean crop data of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to be issued by the end of this week.

In the cash market, palm olein for delivery in November and December traded at $872.5/ton and $875/ton, free on board Malaysian ports.

Cargoes for April/May/June changed hands at $860-$865/ton, FOB, a Singapore-based exporter said.

Open interest on the BMD was 67,081 lots, versus 69,764 lots Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of lots of CPO 14,090 were traded versus 10,683 lots Friday.

Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1000 GMT:

Month   Close  Previous  Change   High    Low
Sep'10  2,739   2,695    Up 44    2,740   2,702
Oct'10  2,670   2,624    Up 46    2,680   2,639
Nov'10  2,620   2,570    Up 50    2,630   2,585
Dec'10  2,612   2,564    Up 48    2,618   2,578
Jan'11  2,603   2,555    Up 48    2,612   2,595

-By Surabhi Choudhary, Dow Jones Newswires; +65 6415-4086; surabhi.choudhary@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 06, 2010 07:41 ET (11:41 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOil ... ower-output-soyoil/

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