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楼主: pc255

[谢绝灌水] pc255专区

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发表于 2010-12-31 12:39 | 显示全部楼层
1-Jan-1031-Dec-10PerformanceKLCI
Out/Under performance PPB15.9617.268.15%19.34%-11.19% Bkawan10.2816.964.40%19.34%45.06% FN10.61541.51%19.34%22.17% Icap1.742.0920.11%19.34%0.77% PDag8.711.734.48%19 ...
pc255 发表于 2010-12-30 23:43

hi, what is your comment on wilmar involved herself in china property industry?

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-2 22:42 | 显示全部楼层
200# ss2020

Purely on the equity portfolio:
vs KLCI

2006 - Low single digit outperformance
2007 - Low single digit outperformance
2008 - High single digit outperformance
2009 - Low single digit underperformance
2010 - Low single digit outperformance

I do not have figure for overall portfolio, but I generally stay around 75:25 equity:the rest (bond FD etc)

ThermoFisher did better. He is the benchmark that people should look up to. In 2008 alone, he did a +40% outperformance. Did not lose money on the down year, that itself is worth +80% on the up year.


hi pc255, may i know your opinion on petgas?

it seem that the profit margin of petgas is very high and got a good cash flow
sshe 发表于 2010-11-4 12:16


PetDag / PetGas - I had both. Heavy weight is PetDag, as I find the free cash flow will probably pay better dividend in future.
Sorry that I did not reply earlier - thought that I have the time to write a detail analysis of the both the company - As a father, I have to learn the word quality time with family, and let go some of these homework.

PC兄!WILMAR有捡便宜货吗?
小巴菲 发表于 2010-12-22 19:18
hi, what is your comment on wilmar involved herself in china property industry?
ckwong8086 发表于 2010-12-31 12:39


Wilmar:
I am not picking up any during the recent sales. I went to Jusco for shopping instead...
CK wong - I do not have any comment regarding the property investment. I am tempted to shout "Stupid, cause the share to slide.. blah blah blah" Then again, few year down - you might say - wah suddenly another hidden thing. Give you example - PPB when diversify into Palm Oil Plantation - it does not look anything great. Today - it is everything about that company.

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-2 22:46 | 显示全部楼层
1# pc255

你跑赢大市吗?KLCI 2010 +19.34%

The result of the survey looks very promising, and credible. It fitted a Bell curve very well.
Looks like investalks.com as a group did reasonably well. Then again, like they say - in a bull market everyone is a winner.
The real issues at hand is this:

For those that are underperforming, why not consider buying KLCI Index ETF? 0820EA - FBMKLCI-EA. Will pay you dividend too. Your performance will be as good as KLCI. I understood that some might be at early stage of investment and the added cash inflow dilute some of the performance (depending on how the cash inflow is treated / calculated.). Still worth while considering.

For those outperforming - Let's hope that everyone keep it up. (If everyone is outperforming - who is underperforming?)

See:
http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=5047
http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=1845

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发表于 2011-1-2 23:46 | 显示全部楼层
額外題:魚大,是不是長得帥的人,都特別有自信的
ShynanGoh 发表于 2010-12-31 12:31


你是在说你自己吗?

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发表于 2011-1-2 23:53 | 显示全部楼层
你是在说你自己吗?
ThermoFisher 发表于 2011-1-2 23:46


Can I  say 同意~~?

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发表于 2011-1-2 23:55 | 显示全部楼层
200# ss2020

ThermoFisher did better. He is the benchmark that people should look up to. In 2008 alone, he did a +40% outperformance. Did not lose money on the down year, that itself is worth +80% on the up year.

pc255 发表于 2011-1-2 22:42


其实我也一直在探讨长期持有是否也能够达到接近的回报率,尤其是持有高股息的蓝筹股;要做到年年不亏是极困难的事,尤其是在牛熊交替的阶段更难避免亏损,我觉得若能做到减低亏损只能算是成功了一半,能够在大家恐慌时再度进场买回自己看好的股才能算成功。

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发表于 2011-1-2 23:58 | 显示全部楼层
你是在说你自己吗?
ThermoFisher 发表于 2011-1-2 23:46

鱼大 & 吴大 都是帅到很有自信。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-5-24 21:51 | 显示全部楼层
ss2020

PetDag / PetGas - I had both. Heavy weight is PetDag, as I find the free cash flow will probably pay better dividend in future.

pc255 发表于 2011-1-2 22:42


http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 2726&pid=638871

Was quite happy that the bumper dividend came as expected.
No ex/payment date given yet, but from past corporate practice, the dividend is paid out before Merdeka. I kinda expect this as well.
Anyone have any comment with regards to future PetDag dividend AFTER they change the Financial Year end to end 31 Dec 2011?

--
Postman, postman where are you?
Hope you come with my Petronas Dagangan dividend voucher before Merdeka this year as per tradition.

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发表于 2011-5-24 22:14 | 显示全部楼层
Petgas's quarter report was not good as the profit margin dropped...

Its dividend remains same as last year...

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-7-4 21:34 | 显示全部楼层
回复 209# pc255

PetDag announced that dividend payment is dated 23 Aug 2011.

Had anyone seen any write up / comments / news on this:
Anyone have any comment with regards to future PetDag dividend AFTER they change the Financial Year end to end 31 Dec 2011?

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发表于 2011-7-15 14:04 | 显示全部楼层
pc255兄一切可好

我还固执的hold着手头上的FnN
而它也不负众望的成了我portfolio里头表现最好的
期望他这几年在没有cola 的包袱下 可以继续成长

而且意的发现原来pcc兄跟我是petgas共同的股东

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-11-15 21:48 | 显示全部楼层
Came across this.. Thought I will keep a picture here for my future amusement..

Company that have a market transaction value bigger than the market capitalisation... hmm..
And 80% of company outstanding stock is traded in 1 day? Wow..

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发表于 2011-11-15 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
Came across this.. Thought I will keep a picture here for my future amusement..

Company that ...
pc255 发表于 2011-11-15 21:48



    好久好久没看到你发表了,很期待你的分享

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-2 22:20 | 显示全部楼层

2011 closing2010 closing+ / -%
Bkawan17.4616.90.563.31%
KLK22.722.10.62.71%
FN18.2153.221.33%
Resort3.833.390.4412.98%
Genting1111.18-0.18-1.61%
Icapital2.052.09-0.04-1.91%
Nestle56.243.3412.8629.67%
Pchem6.25.520.6812.32%
Pdagangan17.811.76.152.14%
PGas15.211.14.136.94%
PPB17.1617.26-0.1-0.58%



Comment on my heavy weight:

Petronas Group
PetDag - One of the best performer in KLCI component stock this year. Earning CIMB analyst one of the best call in O&G sector. Should still have very strong free cash flow for the forseable future. However the share price may have price in that already.

PetGas - This share move decently big time this year. I wonder if this is a window dressing, or the fudamental is really changing. If it is, why is it only move towards end of the year. The Malaka regas plant had been made known for months, if not year. Also the Pengerang site is not news...

PChem - Not much to comment, other than this share is a huge volume (by value) magnet when the insti (local and foreign) is moving about. Yeah, I remember it touch RM7.50 sometime mid year 2011. Wish I had sold for price.. Ha, 马后炮!

F&N - Seems to be doing quite well post Coke, as far as I can see, they have turn very aggressive in the soft drink business. The Thai flood will dampen the mood for a while. Let's hope that the Pulau Indah plant will kick and continue to growth the SCM business. The CNY 100plus campaign had started, and looking at various super/hyper mart stocking, really is exciting for the shareowner of the company. Happy with the dividend declared.

KLK / BKawan - Basic soft commodity seems to be pretty resilient in view of the global uncertainty. Should be doing decently well going forward. Everyone have to eat right? And palm oil is the only source of growth in the world of edible oil. Very impressive final dividend declared, especially for BKawan.

Nestle:
Ha - this I didnt realise could so easily move from RM50 to RM56/57. I thought it will stay around RM50 for a while...At +30% for year 2011, this prove that even elephant can dance. I was kidding myself and those around me, ya, if before 2011 year end it move to RM75 I will sell it all. < Minum milo anda jadi sihat dan kuat! >

Genting / Resort:
Wah, Uncle Lim shopping in USA, and everywhere!

PPB - Pretty disappointing year.. No much to say really. Am hoping that Wilmar will do better this year.

Icap: Hmm.. What can I say?


All that give me a high single digit outperformance vs KLCI, not inclusive of dividend.
Looking back - I thought it had been a harder year relatively to sit and do nothing. And I think blue chip guy like me should envy those trader which might make some good result trading the year away. Penny stock anyone?

评分

参与人数 1威望 +4 收起 理由
蛋散 + 4 good sharing point

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发表于 2012-1-5 21:53 | 显示全部楼层
pc255兄

我是FnN的supporter~~
真的很期待接下来的季报
又可以看到水灾的影响,又可以看到coke 的影响
不知道会profit 会dip 多少

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-1-6 21:52 | 显示全部楼层
Hi titep_shin 兄, If you have sit on F&N for the whole year, return not bad!
Also should be happy with the special dividend ...呵呵
Today mood is not bad for the share, wonder if it keep it up.
Frankly, if we had invested DLady for the year, the return would have been better.  I have no DLady...

Never mind...

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发表于 2012-1-6 23:47 | 显示全部楼层
我2009年底开始拥有FnN,所以现在大概两年咯
今年九月它小跌rm16.5的时候我又再加码
I m realy happy with its dividen, and I m preparing to invest more in FnN if its price dip further if coming quarter report not nice.

现在真正体会到冷眼说的:跌的时候不敢加码,就不买
I have become Dlady shareholder in september 2011
guess i m lucky

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发表于 2012-1-7 11:10 | 显示全部楼层
回复 215# pc255


Including big dividends from all your consumer stocks, your full year performance should be positive mid-teens.  A benchmark for comparison is ICAP.  Clearly, you have outperformed ICAP both in terms of NAV (RM2.74-RM2.55=RM0.19 or 7.4%) and Share Price (RM2.05-RM2.09=RM0.04, or -1%) in 2011.  Well done!

Your portfolio also looks more impressive compared to what ICAP was holding.

Ehh, you can set up another Close-End Fund and compete with ICAP ah?  I will switch everything to your fund.  Don't tell Teng Boo.  

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-2-20 22:07 | 显示全部楼层
Have not updated for a while, and since I had a little musing on F&N, thought might as well put it here...

F&N:
Some see the threat of Coke.
Some see the growth of 100+ and Asian drink.

Some see the problem with the Thai plant.
Some see the potential of Indocina population.

Some see the risk of the share price now.
Some see the possibilities of the share price tomorrow.

Some are scare of the western giant crushing a small peanut.
Some do think highly of the management that understand Asia.

Risk vs reward? It is everywhere. (It's called greed and fear)

--
What do I see? I see all of the above.
What do you see?

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-17 23:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2012-7-17 23:41 编辑

Investing as forward future looking function.
Happen to look at smartphone market share, and got myself thinking that how do we look at changes and what it bring to future.
Would you have sell RIM share back in June 2010? And keep buying Apple? Or buy Samsung?
How to predict this sort of change? Blackberry got hit by a tsunami!
--
Oh oh, I got company issued BB phone..
Should I wash it in the washing machine and ask for a new phone?

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