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楼主: pc255

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-8-27 22:53 | 显示全部楼层
hi pc255,

did you foresee Robert Kuok trying to shrink his business in Malaysia, and any further acquisition to expand its business will be park under Singapore-based Wilmar?

goodluck88 发表于 2010-8-27 09:34


As pointed out in PPB thread, each PPB share is almost 1 Wilmar share.
Which ever way, their fortune is tie together. (From M'sia / PPB stand point)
If the business is park under Wilmar, PPB will have the same benefit.
So, there is no reason to particularly park business under PPB.
Frankly I will not call that shrinking the business.
PPB is now in the business of supplying a lot of cooking oil to a lot of East Asian (via Wilmar).
Their holding in Wilmar was not an accident.
FFM used to hold a minority stake in Kuok Oil and Grain (KOG),
and these business is now the biggest value contributor.

From a Malaysian domestic food company to a huge regional agriculture business,
this is the best way to think that they had actually enlarge the company.

Some further comment (with regards to some discussion on 医师's thread:
PPB management had done a lot for all shareholder, especially the minority shareholder.
They could have sell everything (PPB OIL PALMS BERHAD + KOG) to Wilmar in exchange for cash, and distribute the cash to you.
Selling for cash only need 50% + 1 shareholder approval, under Msia take-over code.
Kuok Brother Sdn Bhd + a few friendly party will easily had done that.
And other minority shareholder will not get to participate in the future of Wilmar,
cos not likely everybody will go buy in SGX market with the cash they receive.
(but Kuok will still likely to be in charge of Wilmar - had this been a cash option)
By retaining the stake in PPB, they had kinda ensure a decently good deal for ALL PPB shareholder.
These guys had serve their entire life at PPB, and making it what it is today.
To imagine that the kind of comment being blasted at Datuk Oh during the AGM,
you can imagine how unhappy he can be.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-29 15:37 | 显示全部楼层
136# 蛋散

Some update for the eDividend, does it work?

Yes - for some company. PPB dividend came in via eDividend today (28 Sept 2010 payment date) .. nice one.
No - some other company like HapSeng Consolidated / Plantation (handled by Symphony) which ex on 8 Sept, and paid on 21 Sept, the cheque still came in.

--
Your mileage may vary.

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发表于 2010-11-4 12:16 | 显示全部楼层
hi pc255, may i know your opinion on petgas?

it seem that the profit margin of petgas is very high and got a good cash flow

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 13:52 | 显示全部楼层
143# sshe

哈。考功课。
请允许我迟点才交可以吗?

--
PetGas vs PetDag - which one you like best? How about PetChem?
鸡饭好还是炒饭好?咖喱饭呢?

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发表于 2010-11-4 13:59 | 显示全部楼层
143# sshe

哈。考功课。
请允许我迟点才交可以吗?

--
PetGas vs PetDag - which one you like best? How about PetChem?
鸡饭好还是炒饭好?咖喱饭呢?
pc255 发表于 2010-11-4 13:52


i did not look into petchem, just have a quick look into petdag and petgas...

petdag has good cash flow in last two years but petgas seem is more stable and have better balance sheet where it got large cash portion

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-8 23:07 | 显示全部楼层
A few comment on F&N:

Qtr:
Dairy latest qtr may start to show the high raw material problem. Something that might cause persistent pain going forward. Even if they have a 3.8% rev growth Q-on-Q, the op profit is lower at 32m vs 42m. 6.4% operating profit margin vs 8.7% last qtr.

Profit boosted by 1 off land sale.

Reasonably strong cash flow overall.

Full year:
I was looking back at what I had written down the other day,
http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=1832&page=9#pid163372
and the full year figure was a bit above what I thought to be good and generous assumption.

Some of the growth surpass my expectation.
Dairies growth at 10% in Msia - I thought that Msia is a saturated market, that is what it look like to me few years ago before Nestle acquisition.
Would you believe that they are cap by capacity in Msia can milk factory?! West Port plant, where are you? Hurry up!

Some of the more exciting item coming from the presentation (mine own emphasis):
• Indochina volume leaped 23% ~ strong Tea Pot brand inroads
• F&N brand building in Thailand & Indochina
• Exploring soft drinks exports to new markets ~ Thailand / Brunei
• Expanding foot print to Indochina’s canned milk market

I just google that Thai + Vietnam population is combine of 150 million. Way to go.

Special dividend - aiyo, got nothing to buy?
And why do you park the King ice cream at SG?
Still no mention what is happening with the SG market..

Those of you who will receive the special dividend in the early Jan 2011, please remember to buy some 100plus and Season drink for CNY celebration in support of your company! Let's ko KO growth to 0, and power 100plus to growth 30% next year. Haha.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in financial / security analysis, neither am I working in any related field. Just a serious retail / amateur investor. I own share in F&N.
免责声明: 我不是财务专家或金融分析师,也不在任何相关领域工作, 我只是认真的业余投资者.我拥有F&N的股票.买卖自负.

--
King's Red Bean Potong  - Yummy!
Mana postman? Postman, postman - cepat cepat!

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发表于 2010-11-9 11:49 | 显示全部楼层
FN派1.10的股熄,难道生意真的那么好?

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发表于 2010-11-10 09:17 | 显示全部楼层
FN派1.10的股熄,难道生意真的那么好?
bursa 发表于 2010-11-9 11:49


RM1.10是特别股息,卖掉玻璃业务后得到的现金。

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发表于 2010-11-10 17:09 | 显示全部楼层
扣掉卖玻璃厂1.1, EPS= 0.851,say PE=16,
Estimated price after EX= 16 x 0.851 =RM 13.60

add coming div RM1.48
estimated current value = RM 15.10.

Sit back and see how will it go.

市场先生给的价是无法估计的。

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发表于 2010-11-10 17:10 | 显示全部楼层
calling pc255... wilmar is mayday mayday....

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发表于 2010-11-10 20:02 | 显示全部楼层
pc!来发表一下WILMAR

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发表于 2010-11-10 20:09 | 显示全部楼层
151# 小巴菲


他应该是又去了跑步或骑脚车来解压了....

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-10 21:25 | 显示全部楼层
calling pc255... wilmar is mayday mayday....
ckwong8086 发表于 2010-11-10 17:10
pc!来发表一下WILMAR
小巴菲 发表于 2010-11-10 20:02


I have briefly seen the result - I guess I will wait till PPB result and do my homework together. So thousand apology, but please hold on.
One thing is the %#@#@$# timing they release the result, I didnt know SGX can release at morning before 7am & market opening.

151# 小巴菲
他应该是又去了跑步或骑脚车来解压了....
夜孩子 发表于 2010-11-10 20:09


Ha, do that everyday - so no pressure. If you dont do, then PRESSURE!

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-10 21:36 | 显示全部楼层
扣掉卖玻璃厂1.1, EPS= 0.851,say PE=16,
Estimated price after EX= 16 x 0.851 =RM 13.60

add coming div RM1.48
estimated current value = RM 15.10.

Sit back and see how will it go.

市场先生给的价是无法估计的。
小灯笼 发表于 2010-11-10 17:09


That is if you fix it at PE16. But their Malaysia milk business growth 10%, indonchina growth 22%, and Thai also did well.
100Plus growth >20%, so is their juice. Or even if we take the CEO words that will only grow high single digit, there is some room to play if we take Peter Lynch PEG measure. But your calculation looks like a reasonable bottom to base the other various assumption. Since F&N is not a fry share, and no liquidity premium, sometimes this make me feel that the somehow the market price relative to investor willing to pay是心里有谱.

Well, like what you say, sit back and watch the show. If you do nothing also the dividend will be 袋袋平安

--
Do you like King's ice cream potong?

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-22 23:31 | 显示全部楼层
A few comment on PPB / Wilmar result:

Wilmar tonnage continue to increase.
Merchandising and processing is almost 10 million ton per quater now.
A trend line analysis of this tonage is pointing to about 2.5% per qtr growth.
Raising 1.4B loan to probably pay for Sacrogen.
This is a company that is doing a very large trade financing. Even a trade receivable can change in a quater by hundreds of million USD.
Operating cash flow looks a little better this qtr, about +200M USD Q-on-Q.
The pledged deposit does not have any further scary increase.
The oil seeds and grain loss is well discussed, so I wont go further there.
Let's hope that margin will normalise..

PPB:
Flour had a good qtr, profit of almost RM44M.
Pretty good cash flow too at 73M
There is a persistent profit from other operation which I dunno where it came from. Anyone?


Further discussion:

Processing 10 million ton per qtr is a very large number.
Robert Kuok had been in sugar refining business for many many years. They rarely loss money, just a matter of how good the profit is. So, Wilmar might do the same thing. Raw sugar, just like CPO / Soybean, is a up and down thing. In my humble opinion for this business, moving a bigger tonnage is always a good thing.

Edible oil consumer pack is probably not their biggest business. Just like their sugar here, the one you see at the supermarket is not their biggest business. Coke bottler and condensed milk producer is one of their bigger customer, others like confectionary mfg, or company like Nestle too. My guess in China, the instant noodle maker is their biggest customer. Anyone with any idea?

Wilmar is probably replicating their edible oil channel with other grain, and price fight for market share. They probably can afford to bleed to kill off small scale competitor. burger6699 had some good idea /write up in ppb thread.

When you have something that you have to use everyday, the fellow that control the biggest volume actually have a say in the margin of the product. Wilmar might have the advantage here, most obviously in China. CPO price up? 贵来贵卖, you still have to eat. This might happen. Off course I sure hope that this will happen.

Dorab Mistry saw the problem with the company few months back by saying that it will be a good move if Wilmar merge with Golden Agri, the world 2nd largest palm oil plantation.  Highly respected old hand.

后记:
There had been extensive discussion about the result recently, which is a good thing, and I will just say this: I do not know more than you guys do. So, I will just write down my humble opinion, so that I can look back at myself sometime in future. My take is maybe I should not write too much (sometime I wonder what rubbish am I writing.. 不知所谓!), and let the people discuss more? Maybe better that way.


Disclaimer: I am not an expert in financial / security analysis, neither am I working in any related field. Just a serious retail / amateur investor. I own share in PPB/Wilmar.
免责声明: 我不是财务专家或金融分析师,也不在任何相关领域工作, 我只是认真的业余投资者.我拥有PPB/Wilmar的股票.买卖自负.


Let's have some fun with my favourite quote..
--
PPB 捞赛, 我绑赛绑没出.
绑水咯! 笑!

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发表于 2010-11-22 23:47 | 显示全部楼层
A few comment on PPB / Wilmar result:

Wilmar tonnage continue to increase.
Merchandising and processing is almost 10 million ton per quater now.
A trend line analysis of this tonage is pointing ...
pc255 发表于 2010-11-22 23:31

hi, i cant see this article from TheEdge ('Wilmar and Golden Agri should merge,' says Dorab Mistry ), do u have more info, can pm me? tq..
http://palmoilis.mpob.gov.my/Net ... ECT4=AND&n=DATE,TITL&l=20&SECT1=IMAGE&SECT2=THESOFF&SECT3=PLUROFF&SECT5=BULL&SECT6=DOCORDER&d=BULL&p=3&u=/Netacgi/bullboard.cgi&r=57&f=G

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发表于 2010-11-23 01:18 | 显示全部楼层
thx pc, for ur idea...,
btw do u think china goverment will allow this 贵来贵卖?

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-12-2 23:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-12-2 23:24 编辑

Wilmar subscription of 20% FFM for RM378M:

- Wilmar gain flour in Msia, Vietnam, (also in Jawa Indonesia - however I not sure if this is fully operational), PPB/FFM gain a potential foothold in China. We still do not know what they will buy yet, so it with be cliff hanger till the "otential Acquisition" is annouced. I suspect they will be a flour division holding company setup in China, if PPB/FFM is financially able to subscript for a portion of that. From what I read, there is a 4000ton/day capacity for wheat in China.

- They can now leverage on each other distribution. And join forces when needed, like Vietnam.

- Honestly, I am not sure who is in favour on the overall deal. As shareholders, what we see here is that they would now work together, which is a good thing.


Other comment:

btw do u think china goverment will allow this 贵来贵卖?
moneymoney180 发表于 2010-11-23 01:18


Ha, the latest article around suggest that it will not. However this is probably bleed a lot of small timer to dead, and big timer will be stronger. The market is heading towards oligopoly or duopoly.

在这之前医师把PPB当成种植股来看待!
那是多么错误的看法!!
tabibho 发表于 2010-12-1 11:32


I personally view this company as essential food company. 长期有的做的. Sugar in msia was 40 yrs business, also price control.

3163# tan81
目前 CPO 和原产品的牛 = Wilmar 的熊
夜孩子 发表于 2010-12-2 19:19


What I have to balance thing out by having CPO upstream producer. KLK (via BKawan) is my prefer counter weight to this. Utd Plant would another good choice in my opinion.

Lastly, just some general question:
Every company, good or bad should by right have its strong point, and also its weak point.
Wilmar weakness? Not enough in house raw mat, and at the mercy of market price.

Would you say the same to each and every company that you invest? Even CPO upstream company?



Disclaimer: I am not an expert in financial / security analysis, neither am I working in any related field. Just a serious retail / amateur investor. I own share in PPB/Wilmar.
免责声明: 我不是财务专家或金融分析师,也不在任何相关领域工作, 我只是认真的业余投资者.我拥有PPB/Wilmar的股票.买卖自负.

--
PPB 捞赛, friend, skali 捞 ka 完, can bo?
表捞捞停停 eh 赛 bo?

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发表于 2010-12-3 07:54 | 显示全部楼层
pc!关于中国不给食油涨价,你有什么看法?

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发表于 2010-12-3 11:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ckwong8086 于 2010-12-3 11:23 编辑
pc!关于中国不给食油涨价,你有什么看法?
小巴菲 发表于 2010-12-3 07:54

ok, dont allow me to 涨价, no problem... but let me have IPO on HK this time...
u help me, i help u. (u need to jiao dai to your people, i need to jiao dai to my shareholder...)

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