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[公司专区] 8583 Mahsing 馬星集團

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https://klse.i3investor.com/blog ... arget_at_RM1_6b.jsp

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A Look At The Fair Value Of Mah Sing Group Berhad (KLSE:MAHSING)
Simply Wall St  April 7, 2020
How far off is Mah Sing Group Berhad (KLSE:MAHSING) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Mah Sing Group Berhad

The model
As Mah Sing Group Berhad operates in the real estate sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 10-year government bond rate (3.4%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today’s value at a cost of equity of 13%. Compared to the current share price of RM0.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate – Perpetual Growth Rate)

= RM0.04 / (13% – 3.4%)

= RM0.4

KLSE:MAHSING Intrinsic value April 7th 2020
KLSE:MAHSING Intrinsic value April 7th 2020
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mah Sing Group Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.321. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Mah Sing Group Berhad, We’ve put together three essential aspects you should further examine:

Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Mah Sing Group Berhad we’ve uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does MAHSING’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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感谢论坛,通过这论坛学习了许多

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