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楼主: sinosuke

[谢绝灌水] SINOSUKE专区 -- 小新投资的一点一滴。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-9-30 18:12 | 显示全部楼层
time to analyse another co. Yesterday uncle mentioned about 0027 galaxy entertainment group (GEG). Let's take a look.

NAV: HKD8.43
Share price: HKD44.90
Lot size: 1000 unit
(Note: For me, i dont afford to buy even 1 lot which is equivalent to SGD7k!)

Revenue (refer pic)
Increase by HKD22bn from 2010 to 2011. After that the momentum of revenue increase is not that huge. Therefore, the best timing to enter the position would be 2010.....

GP (refer pic)
Huge increase from 2011 to 2012 due to Galaxy Macau is fully operated. FYI, Galaxy Macau was fully operating in FY2012, it started operating in May 2011.

GP analysis by casino (refer pic)
Galaxy Macau: Opened in May 2011. GP margin has increased from 16% in FY12 to 22% in FY14. Galaxy Macau has overtaken Starworld in FY2012 in terms of revenue and GP contribution.
Starworld Macau: Opened before Galaxy Macau. GP margin has increased from 12% in FY2011 to 15% in FY14.

Dividend
No dividend from 2009 until recent special dividend of HKD0.7 in FY13 and HKD0.45 in FY14.

Gearing
Net gearing in NIL!!!!! because after minus total borrowing with cash, it is negative, ie cash balance is more than borrowings (both short and long term).

Cash flow (refer pic)
Operating cash flow increase yoy. High investing cash outflow in FY12 mainly due to placement of FD and purchase of PPE. As for high financing cash outflow in FY13 mainly due to repayment of bank loan.

Recent development
1) Galaxy Macau
launch galaxy macau phase 2 in 2012
expected to complete mid 2015
double galaxy macau
2) Phase 3 & 4 in Cotai
commence investigation in late 2014
3) Hengqin Island
2.7 square kilometre land parcel for a world class
4) Grand Waldo
Grand Waldo Complex is expected to re-launch in early 2015.

To do
- to analyse the share movement from 2010 till todate.
- to know more about Hengqin Island and Grand Waldo project




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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-1 01:05 | 显示全部楼层
今晚和某大哥谈了这支股。大哥说那时的27是高负债前景不明朗, 股价很低, 因为它不派股息所以他没买。本小姐也是之前根据dividend growth来filter全部股票,所以对照那些过后股价升了的股, 发现自己根本用了错的criteria来filter. 而且, 大叔已经再三强调dividend, PE都是已经是history了。。。

lesson learnt: historical dividend and PE should not be the main criteria in assessing a company. It is the future that matters.


今晚也是因为有人提起宏观,我才想起以前读cat T5时, 老师就有教PEST了。我觉得这算是宏观一种吧!

Political : government policy

Economy: supply and demand & competitor

Substitution

Technology



自己想要的东西就要努力争取, 自己嘴巴说要但是没有行动那是没用的。加油!

点评

Xander hehe. 几时要请我吃日本拉面。 ops, 现在不能再调戏你了。。  发表于 2014-10-3 23:22
这样,金发不是猴子?!  发表于 2014-10-3 15:45
我以为头发黑的是大哥,有点白的是大叔,全白的是爷爷  发表于 2014-10-3 14:23
复杂关系 :)  发表于 2014-10-1 08:51
那么我是大哥了!  发表于 2014-10-1 08:38
保护隐私。 >30= uncle <30 = 大哥。 Hehe  发表于 2014-10-1 08:20
有大哥,有大叔,好复杂哦!  发表于 2014-10-1 01:09

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-7 00:52 | 显示全部楼层
晚上深思时就疑惑为何大叔从没称赞我。或许大叔对我要求严格或许我对他微不足道, 而我比较相信后者。还是要在投资上加油! 小新, fighting!

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-8 00:46 | 显示全部楼层
恋爱中的少女总是甜。~~~

兔子先生原来和我差不多时间开始投资,但我发现兔子先生的研究得比我仔细, 要多多向他学习。

27的share price. 曾经只是10-20++ 过后像火箭那样。upload 不了historical share price. 算了

晚了,晚安!

点评

of course cannot, share is still my major investment. i just feel very sweet~~~  发表于 2014-10-8 11:13
现在可以喝水饱吗?:)  发表于 2014-10-8 08:35

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-10 23:19 | 显示全部楼层
今天继续记录。。。

今天看到了一幕就好像mr donald trump在fire了人过后所说的结论,好精彩。内容类似a君是很有经验的operator, 你给他resources它可以把operation做得很好,note:很好不代表会赚钱哦, 很好代表service provided is of high quality。所以说operator的mindset和businessman是不一样。Businessman是看gross profit的,如果某个branch or division的生意不好就应该想办法improve, improve不了就要想退路,而不是傻傻的经营下去。businessman果然和operator不一样。

把它应用在工作上, 我总是小看现在的工作岗位,过着得过且过的生活。为了做而做, 没hit到objective. 要每天想着怎样再improve才好。

脑海还是一片乱,毫无目标的生活是没有意义的。仰慕的大叔和公司的高层是名牌大学毕业的, 他们都是很快catch到东西,分析能力超强。

完毕。明天继续看赌场股。

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-11 00:59 | 显示全部楼层
27 galaxy entertainment

To do
- to analyse the share movement from 2010 till todate. (refer pic attached)
Based on the historical share price chart, as at 31 Dec 2010, the share price was HKD8.8. Net gearing at that time was 28% and only starworld macau was operating.

Come to 2011, it has almost doubled to HKD14.24 which is almost in line with the gross profit (from HKD2bn to HKD5.4bn), the net gearing was as high as 54%. Galaxy macau had just opened around May 2011. Fung fung asked us whether we dare to buy while the gearing was so high and the prospect was so uncertain that time.

Come to 2012, the share price has increased to HKD31.80 from HKD14.24 although the momentum of gross profit is not as huge as 2011 (from HKD5.4bn to HKD9.5bn)!!! Net gearing was zero while full years result of galaxy macau had been reflected in FY2012.

Come to 2013,  the share price continued to climb to HKD70.65 from HKD31.80 while the momentum of gross profit is lesser. Net gearing remained zero while the increase of GP was not as huge as FY2012.

Recently due to the effort of China government to combat corruption, news are everywhere that the results of casino industries would be badly hit, therefore, the share price has climbed down to HKD66.45 as at 30 June 2014 as compared to HKD70.65 as at 31 Dec 2013.

Conclusion
The share price keeps climbing while the momentum of GP has decreased. I understand that i might be wrong to compare memontum of gross profit against share price. 因为大叔买股是买公司的未来。如果在对的时间,看准公司的成长(esp opening of galaxy macau in May 2011), 真的考眼光和胆量。。。就像xiamen port.

- to know more about Hengqin Island and Grand Waldo project (to be continued)

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-12 00:29 | 显示全部楼层
与投资无关

今天的我感到非常幸福,希望继续幸福下去 :)

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-11-20 00:21 | 显示全部楼层
最近在职场里从大老板上看到了生意人的思考模式,是长远的。他积极培养孩子当接班人,给予孩子的是鼓励,而孩子在老爸面前积极的表现自己。30多岁的儿子协助老爸规划公司将来,而同样30岁的男同事每天加班到八点多,截然不同的人生,就因为身世不同。老板儿子积极为公司将来打算,而员工就以员工的思维每天去打工。老板的思维vs打工仔的思维。我一定要跳出打工仔的思维转向投资者的思维。尽量在工作上sharpen自己的skills.难以想象10年后的我是怎样的,怎样也好,现在要自我增值,机会是留给有准备的人的。大叔的职场良言真的拍手称赞,我还是会很仰慕他的。人生规划可以像是balance sheet. assets= investments, skills in workings environment, healthy, family, creditors = loan/credit card, equity = net assets.

想在此记录今天所思考的东西:
楊衞隆 低息引發先進國通縮
http://wisecopy.blogspot.in/2014/11/20141119_33.html
“濫發貨幣不能提升實質收入,當收入呆滯的時候,樓價被封頂。政府繼續維持超低息也不能推高樓價。實質收入下降的時候,樓價下跌,工資下跌,令到消費和零售成本下降。通縮其實是消費萎縮。
消費不停萎縮,樓價最終支持不住,突然暴跌,引發嚴重通縮,經濟衰退,然後大蕭條。大蕭條的時候,政府繼續濫發貨幣就會出現超級通脹。”
很庆幸自己是读会计,有学到一点经济的知识。这段引发我深思, 当钱泛滥,就会有通胀 (屋子也会涨价),purchasing power就会降低,所以人民负担不起这些屋子,所以demand<supply, 楼价就跌, 楼价跌可能引发发展商还不了loan, 银行就有高的non performing loan, 然后没钱借出去给其他公司,公司借不了钱, 周转不灵,加上人民因为物价起,减少消费所以公司生意也是不好, 引发经济风暴、萧条。应该是这样吧!要多多向大叔学习宏观, 没时间就尽量挤时间出来学习。

此文供我以后参考,记录自己的想法。

点评

祝sinosuke和大家新年快乐,万事如意!  发表于 2015-2-20 23:25
sorry,德国大通胀,美国大蕭條。  发表于 2014-11-20 08:36
何人,何故,何时,何地,何事。大蕭條。历史上通縮有几次,大蕭條就那么一次。德国大蕭條。  发表于 2014-11-20 08:31
投资者的思维??  发表于 2014-11-20 08:27

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发表于 2015-1-27 09:33 | 显示全部楼层
sinosuke 发表于 2014-8-15 22:35
thanks! i will look at it tmrw~~~

楼主,Hock Lian Seng share price recently increased so much to $0.36.

Any buy in?

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发表于 2015-2-26 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
楼主,HLS today announced a super good result. Proposed dividend of 4 cent. Today closing price is S$0.39. High yield

点评

没买, 算了。  发表于 2015-2-28 21:04

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 楼主| 发表于 2015-11-22 16:34 | 显示全部楼层
錢是重要,但是在人生上有負面影響就不好了。

小伙是家裡的幼子,小伙的爸爸繼承了家裡的財產,家裡開著雜貨店. 小伙的日子總算衣食無憂。也因為這樣,小伙開始懶惰,做他覺得對的東西,別人的苦苦婆勸,他一概不理,並且罵回他們.他把家裡的錢全都借出去給人家,為了借錢而借錢...把小伙老婆辛苦存的錢都拿去借給人了,多次在孩子面前對老婆拳打腳踢,老婆終於忍不住和小伙提出離婚,小伙為了面子,不肯. 這個單方面的離婚足足用了兩年時間才完成。離婚後,小伙變本加厲,爸爸給他的雜貨店他從以前的9點開店到最後的中午兩三點開店,從以前的晚上10點的關店到最後的凌晨12.30关店,家里的爸爸和姑姑都怕店被打枪。劝他,他不听。。。关店后,小伙并不去睡觉,而是架摩托车去借给人家钱,有些钱借了收不回,他还是继续借出去,为了面子。。。搞到早上六点才睡觉。小伙心想爸爸有的是家产,我要怎样做都可以。日复一日,终于在离婚十年后,大肠癌找上门来。

开始,他觉得自己是可以被医好的,但已经太迟了,是第三期的大肠癌,已经扩散到肝了。小伙拿着钱去求医生把他医好但现实是医生无能为力了。他渐渐的感到衰弱,走路也没力,肚子因为大肠癌而变得涨大,两个星期没胃口吃下东西了,瘦骨如柴。可怜的小伙爸爸和姑姑要照顾他,可怜他们啊,都很老了,还要牵着小伙起来上厕所,有一次小伙没力,不小心跌倒了。可怜他啊!难道这是因果?而他的小儿子在他去世的前几天一直喊着要爸爸的财产,小伙仿佛看到年轻的自己在骂着自己爸爸,答应把家产给他。小儿子是小伙最疼的也是最操心的,小儿子的脾气暴躁,年少气盛。

小伙在生病时信息給前妻道歉,最令我印象深刻的是他衰弱地問前妻,如果我有機會痊癒,你會和我再一起嗎?前妻知道小伙快不行了,連忙答應他。早知當然,何必當初。。。

心態不對造成以後的結局。或許小伙的家裡貧窮點或沒有家產,小伙不會變成這樣。健康最重要,不然有錢也沒命花。

点评

健康最重要  发表于 2015-11-22 16:51

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发表于 2015-12-25 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
进来学习学习

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