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No Risk Investment Strategy

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发表于 2014-6-17 15:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 KoonYewYin 于 2014-6-19 17:13 编辑

During my last 31 years in share investing, I realize that not one single strategy can work all the time because all business operations face different challenges at different time. As a result, their share prices fluctuate and I have to change my strategy quiet frequently to make profit.

How can I find a strategy that I do not have to change so frequently? How can I find a company that can consistently make increasing profit?

As you know, in Malaysia, we do not have companies like Coco Cola, Gillette Razor and MacDonalds which have the competitive market advantage to generate increasing profit consistently. But we have well managed plantation companies like KLK and Batu Kawan which produce palm oil.

Fortunately for us, only Indonesia and Malaysia have the most suitable climactic condition for growing oil palms in the world and our largest buyers India and China cannot grow oil palms. That is why almost all the palm oil is produced in Indonesia and Malaysia.

The long term Batu Kawan chart shows that its price was Rm 2,50 in 2001 and currently it is Rm Rm 20.00 , an increase of Rm 17.50 in 13 years, ie 7 times in 13 years.

The long term KLK chart shows that its price was Rm 4.00 in 2004 and currently it is Rm 24.00, an increase of Rm Rm 20.00 in 10 years, ie 5 times in 10 years.

Between the 2 companies, Batu Kawan is a better buy. If you buy Batu Kawan you will get about 18% return per year plus about 4.0% as dividend = 22% per year.

If you make use of margin finance costing 4.6% per year, you can easily get another 10% per year at least, totaling 32% per years. You just buy and keep for a long term and you don’t have to do anything.

As you know all shares fluctuate in price. If you sell some when the price is high and buy back when the price is low, you can further improve your profit.

在过去31年的投资生涯里,我意识到,没有一个策略是永远都行得通,那是因为所有的企业在不同的时间都面对着不同的挑战。

因此,股价的波动,使我不得不经常改变我的策略来获利。

那我怎样才能找到一个不需要频密更变的策略呢?我如何才能找到一家能够持续提升利润的公司呢?

众所周知,在马来西亚,我们并没有一家像可口可乐,吉列剃须刀和麦当劳的公司,一家拥有市场竞争优势并且持续增加利润的公司。

但我们有优质管理层的种植公司,KLK和Batu Kawan。

幸运的是,全球最大的油棕买家,中国和印度都无法种植油棕树,只有印度尼西亚和马来西亚拥有最合适的气候条件来种植油棕树。

这也就是为什么几乎所有的棕榈油都产自印度尼西亚和马来西亚。

Batu Kawan 图像显示,在2001年,它的价格是 RM2.50,而目前它的价格是RM 20.00,13年里涨了RM 17.50,13年里,翻了7倍。

KLK长期图表显示,2004年它的价格是 RM4.00而目前它是RM 24.00,在10年内增涨了RM20.00,在10年内,翻了5倍。

2个公司之间,Batu Kawan是一个更好的选择。如果你投资Batu Kawan,您将获得每年约18%的回酬,加上每年股息约4.0%,一共22%。

如果你利用证券融资,每年利息4.6%,你可以轻易地获取每年额外10%回酬,共计每年32%。您只需购买并长期拥有的,也不必做任何事情。

众所周知,股价有上升也有下跌的时候。低买高卖可以进一步提高你的利润。





The unofficial account of Koon Yew Yin (This account does not represent or attempt to speak on behalf of Koon Yew Yin)

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发表于 2014-6-17 20:42 | 显示全部楼层
the concept is correct, but all about talking above 10 years

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发表于 2014-6-17 20:43 | 显示全部楼层
the concept is correct, but all about talking above 10 years

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x 137
发表于 2014-6-17 22:30 | 显示全部楼层
I personally is an owner of small oil palm estate, however oil palm industry is different than those companies which are owned by Warren Buffett.

First of all, it is not monopoly or oligopoly industry where it can sell higher product price by reducing quantity produced since there are no or few competitors in the market.

Secondly, there is no product differentiation. All FFB are the same, trader will buy from anyone, not only from 红尘菩提oil palm estate or others since there is no brand loyalty.

Further more, there is low barrier of entry  (护城河)for other competitor to enter the market and increasing supply, hence lowering price as well as profit.

Last but not least, all agricultural product cannot last for long, hence the price fluctuates. The producer is unable to stock them when price is low and sell them when price is high.

Above are just my humble opinion. I am willing to hear more opinions from anyone about oil palm industry. Thank you.

点评

謝謝分享!  发表于 2014-10-14 17:41

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发表于 2014-8-26 11:47 | 显示全部楼层
謝謝、承知学习了

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x 151
发表于 2014-10-25 21:29 | 显示全部楼层
  no risk no return

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x 1
发表于 2014-11-29 13:27 | 显示全部楼层
这也是我个人想法 常抓不放 不过也得看该股的潜力要经得起风波

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发表于 2014-12-4 12:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 AseaTradingLink 于 2014-12-6 09:38 编辑
红尘菩提 发表于 2014-6-17 22:30
I personally is an owner of small oil palm estate, however oil palm industry is different than those ...


I am not a big fan of plantation company and thinking of exactly what you think previously. Supply and demand cycle are long for plantation sector compare to manufacturing sector and it take sometime for tree to growth as setting up a new factory/ production line are much faster than growing a tree.

However, when government announced Economic Transformation Programme(ETP). To my surprise, government included Oil Plam as one of it 12 NKRE, whereas some manufacturing sector like Glove manufacturing,Furniture Manunfacturing (Johore) and Shoe Manufacturing (Perak) has been excluded from 12 NKRE of ETP.

This make me have a second look at the sector.

One of my relative who practice Warren Buffett value investing told me he has waited for plantation stock price to come down for few years already. But share price of those plantation company who fit  Warren Buffett financial criteria remain stable and never drop as expected despite palm oil price have drop significantly. And he still do not have opportunity to buy any share in plantation sector at the price he want!!!

Actually, the top 3 plam oil company on KLSE are not plantation company, they have a manufacturing division, refinery and oleo Chemical division, make them able to hedge against price fluctuation. Thus, when palm oil price drop, profit on plantation division might drop but it manufacturing division, especially, Oleo Chemical division, which use plam oil as a raw material would have lower cost of raw material and profit of it manufacturing division increase. Thus, it is not fair to compare a plam oil company with your own estate as you do not own a factory and you have no hedging ability. Thus, they are immune to price fluctuation or at least has the ability to mitigate it.

As for barrier of entry. It is supply of plantation land that form a barrier of entry. Big group like IOI converting their plantation land to property development make plantation land become lesser and lesser. This form a barrier of entry in peninsular unless you pay higher price for land. Only East Malaysia still have supply of plantation land. Big corporation have to go to Indonesia to search for plantation land whereas small holder unable to do that. Thus, there is some form of barrier of entry.

It is only it share price still at the peak of palm oil price that prevent investor to invest the company in reasonable stock price.



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发表于 2014-12-4 17:48 | 显示全部楼层
AseaTradingLink 发表于 2014-12-4 12:52
I am not a big fan of plantation company and thinking of exactly what you think. Supply and deman ...

Thanks for sharing your opinion, I mean low barrier of entry in the form of technology and capital. It will be very much easier to buy a plantation land rather than set up a monopoly business such as brewery, gambling and tobacco. I personally will compare different business and the return as well as margin of safety when investing. Since we have the choice, why not choose something that is better? Cheers

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x 137
发表于 2014-12-4 17:54 | 显示全部楼层
AseaTradingLink 发表于 2014-12-4 12:52
I am not a big fan of plantation company and thinking of exactly what you think. Supply and deman ...

In addition, your opinion are actually not contradict to mine, since you agree that the top three plantation company are not 100% plantation company.  Their management of course will know the risk/disadvantage of plantation too and will take the right course to maximise profit. This is why sime and ioi(before spliting into ioipg and ioicorp) are engaged in properties business.

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x 462
发表于 2014-12-19 20:46 | 显示全部楼层
这个帖子有点旧,对近期的股市有没有新的想法?

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x 56
发表于 2014-12-27 13:55 | 显示全部楼层
klse还有几多个像这样的公司?  银行股有几个,种植股看来看去还是这两个!!!!

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发表于 2015-2-14 12:59 | 显示全部楼层
KLK 从2001年的种植地150,000 公顷.来到了目前的270,000公顷.10多年来平均每年增加了近10,000公顷的地皮.当然,也要归功于棕榈油从当年的不足1000块,来到目前的2千多.

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发表于 2015-2-14 13:50 | 显示全部楼层
BKAWAN和KLK两者之间,选BKAWAN吧。
我的一位大学同学目前在KLK当高级管理层,他说呀,老板跟他讲,买BKAWAN,不要买KLK。
除非你是基金经理或是打算买卖几千万,需要高交易量来方便买进卖出,不然选BKAWAN啦。

我喜欢BKAWAN,因为它有个额外的隐藏着的EPS,
目前BKAWAN的NAB是11.33,可是你翻看KLK的年报,你会发觉它的园丘账面是严重低估,所以实际上BKAWAN的NAB是绝对超过20.00的。
那些园丘土地是会慢慢继续增值,就当增幅跟通膨率不相上下,讲它是5%,那么每年平均就有20.00*0.05=1.00,这额外的1.00隐藏EPS是在财报看不到的。所以假设BKAWAN的财报里说EPS是1.00,我们应该加多1.00的隐藏EPS,总EPS是2.00,以目前股价18.72,PE不到10倍。

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发表于 2017-4-7 16:38 | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽

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thjqr 该用户已被删除
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发表于 2017-9-15 12:02 | 显示全部楼层
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