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[公司专区] 9059 TSH 陳順風資源

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发表于 2010-5-11 00:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
第一次开贴, 请大家多多指教....

到今为止, TSH 累积的地库达到111,000公倾, (大部分都在印尼) 是一间中型种植股, 除了油棕业, 他也拥有上市子公司EKOWOOD, 从事地板家居. 以及小部分可可营收. 另外他还有发展空果串生物发电技术, 以及位来空果串造纸技术部 (under construction). TSH也拥有20% INNO PLANTATION 上市公司(前身sinora), 有20,000 ha 地库, 刚转型从木材业到油棕业, 很有可能被TSH收购.

以下是他的2009基本面:
NET PROFIT 72,314, ROE = 8.87%
NTA = RM1.78, EPS = 17.68, PE: 10.46 (today price RM1.85), and FINAL DIVIDEND 5 SEN, EX-DATE: 6/28

我唯一不喜欢他的负债很高, 都借钱来买地建厂, 而且成交量不高.
SORRY, I DONT KNOW HOW TO POST THE NEWS, CAN ANYONE TELL ME? TQ

TP = rm2.30

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发表于 2010-5-11 00:38 | 显示全部楼层
1# michael78

负债高其中一个原因是因为这几年不断在印尼买地,这个是可以理解的。虽然如此,可是 D/A 一直维持得很好,2009 为 0.53。唯一担心的应该是他的 Cash flow,因为 current ratio 只有 1.03。

如果印尼达不到很好的成绩,那 TSH 就有难。

补充,TSH 以前是可可公司,过后才转型为油棕的,现在还是马来西亚最大的可可生产商。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-11 18:39 | 显示全部楼层
Company Name : TSH RESOURCES BERHAD   
Stock Name  : TSH   
Date Announced : 11/05/2010   



Type : Announcement
Subject : Subscription of renounceable rights shares in Innoprise Plantations Berhad ("Innoprise")



Contents : The Board of Directors of TSH wishes to announce that the Company has fully subscribed its entitlement of 33,750,000 new ordinary shares of RM1.00 each at an issue price of RM1.00 per share pursuant to Innoprise's corporate exercise involving renounceable rights issue of up to 168,750,000 new ordinary shares of RM1.00 each on the basis of 3 rights shares for every 1 existing share held after the capital reconstruction at 5.00 pm on 14 April 2010.

With the subscription, the Company’s stake in Innoprise has increased from 20% to 23.86% comprising 45,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each. The subscription was funded through internally generated funds and borrowings.

This announcement is dated 11 May 2010.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-11 19:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 michael78 于 2010-5-11 19:06 编辑

Financial Information

Compound Annual Growth Rate ("CAGR") of earnings per shares (“EPS”) based on audited results and projection by ecmlibra avenue

32.12%

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-11 19:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 michael78 于 2010-5-11 19:22 编辑

CPO COMPARISON BTW 2009 AND 2010

JAN                                20,629         18,559
FEB                                16,840           15,099
MAR                               19,145          16,695


产量比去年减少了, 应该是出在 尼诺尔效应

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-12 23:54 | 显示全部楼层
2# chengyk


我对这公司的管理还可以, 每年要开辟5,000 - 7,000Ha 的新油棕地不简单. 我那边的油棕秧一棵要大约 RM7, TSH 拥有tissue culture 这方面的技术, 所以资本开销会大大的减底. 加上印尼如今经济突飞, 政治也比以前相对稳定, 前景我还是看好.

唯一担心是CPO油价, 因为它直接影响TSH 主要的收入.

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发表于 2010-5-13 00:04 | 显示全部楼层
6# michael78

还有一点可能很多人没有注意到,TSH 的 ton per hectares yield 大概 29 tons,比 IOI 还高。

影响他的盈利不只 CPO prices,ekowood 长期低迷也是一个致命伤。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-13 01:08 | 显示全部楼层
我把IOI 在12/31 的基本面和TSH 来比较:

                         TSH                IOI
s price 5/12          1.86              5.37
NTA                       1.78              1.64
NTA/price               0.96              0.305
EPS                        17.68            24.56 (update)
PE                          10.52             21.86
dividend                  0.05               0.12 (update)
dividend yield        2.69%            2.23%

就如chengyk 大大所说, production yield TSH 占优, 加上基本面略为好, 我将会再买进这股, 希望可以升回 2.2x   
2009 年报, wood product 占总收入 7%, 而且会持续底迷.

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发表于 2010-5-13 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
一些我之前做过的功课。



TSH 的 dividend payout policy 是 20% 到 30%。不过可以看到他一直都派发 5 sens 的股息,我相信未来几年也会一样,直到在印尼的油棕有贡献就会改善。

以今天 RM 1.86 的价钱计算, DY 大概是 2.69%,不高也不低。



这不是最新的数据,我翻查过他的 website,也是只有以上的数字,所以暂时还没有更新。不过从以上的表可以看到,TSH 最重要的地库都在印尼,而且大部分都还没有种植,以 michael78 兄说的,TSH 每年开辟 5000  到 7000 ha,所以以她目前的地库,未来几年都不会是问题。

再来就是等待收成的时候。

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发表于 2010-5-13 23:13 | 显示全部楼层
TSH 累积的地库达到111,000公倾, 这100k的地,油棕树龄知道吗?

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-14 22:51 | 显示全部楼层
10# 豆沙包


从报告所知, TSH 共种植了超过 20,000ha 油棕地, 包括 4,500ha 在沙巴的成熟树龄. 因此, TSH 的 production yield 这么高是可以理解的.

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发表于 2010-5-14 22:57 | 显示全部楼层
10# 豆沙包

其实我也好奇这个数据,前两天我已经写信去问了。

Hi Mr. XXXX,

    I am one of the shareholder of TSH. Recently i feel that your website is not updated. A lot of informations still staying at 2009, can you make some improvement for this issue?

    Besides, I would like to know some plantation informations (Palm Oil) as well:

    1. What is the total hectares of plantation land in TSH now?
    2. How many hectares is planted with palm trees? How many hectares is not planted?
    3. What is the tree's ages for the planted land?
    4. I know TSH is working hard to plan the palm trees in Indonesia's land, how many hectares is planted every year?

    Hope i will receive the reply soon. Thanks for your time and concern.

Best regards,
chengyk

他已经回信说会准备这些资料给我,迟一些我收到了在放出来。另一点让我觉得好奇,他居然要我的真名,说要 update 在 Shareholding record 里面,难道他觉得我是大户,其实我只有几粒,真的排泄。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-14 22:57 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-14 23:08 | 显示全部楼层
Milling and  refining capacity. TSH owns and operates 3 palm oil mills  in Sabah and 1 palm oil mill  in Sumatera,
Indonesia with total annual FFB processing capacity of 1.5 million MT. Around 16% of the total capacity is utilized to
process its own FFB while the balance is used to process FFB purchased from third party estates. TSH mills in Sabah
currently  earn  processing  profits  of  between RM10-15  per  FFB  ton.  The mills  are  running  at  about  80%  average
utilisation  rate. TSH  is also building another palm oil mill with an annual FFB processing capacity of 0.3 million MT.
The  new mill  which  is  located  in  Kalimantan,  Indonesia  will  commence  operation  in  2Q10.  Due  to  the  prevailing
scarcity of processing capacity, palm oil mills  in Kalimantan generally  reap profits of around RM50-60 per FFB  ton
processed.  Furthermore,  TSH  has  also  diversified  downstream  into CPO  refinery  and  PK  crushing  plant  in Sabah
through  TSH-Wilmar  Sdn  Bhd,  a  50:50  joint-venture  with Wilmar  International  Ltd.  (Wilmar),  a  company  listed  on
Singapore Exchange. The refinery has a design capacity of 0.75 million MT per annum and is envisaged to cater for
the capacity needs of the next 5 years. The refinery is currently running at around 60% utilisation rate.
Auxiliary income from bio-integration activities. As a company that prides itself as a “green industrialist”, TSH has
undertaken  a  comprehensive  bio-integration  program.  Bio-integration  solves  palm  oil mill  wastes  problem,  namely
empty fruit bunches (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), apart from providing auxiliary income to the company.
  Biomass: (i) TSH’s wholly-owned 14MW biomass power plant in Kunak, Sabah. It is the first biomass
power plant in Malaysia to be connected to the grid, since 2005. The power plant generates electricity
and  industrial steam  from EFB.  It has a  renewable energy purchase agreement  (REPA) with Sabah
Electricity Sdn  Bhd  to  supply  up  to  10MW  of  electricity  at  21.25  sen  kWh  for  21  years;  (ii)  TSH’s
9.8MW  biomass  power  plant  through  a  50:50  joint-venture  with Wilmar.  It  supplies  electricity  and
industrial steam to TSH-Wilmar refinery since 2007.
Biogas:  POME  emits  methane  gas,  a  greenhouse  gas  which  is  21  times  more  harmful  to  the
environment  than  carbon  dioxide. The methane  gas  however  can  be  treated  to  generate  industrial
steam  and  eventually  electricity.  In  2009,  TSH  biogas  project  was  commissioned  with  an  output
capacity of 2.5MW of electricity  from  its  industrial steam. The biogas project was acknowledged by
United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  as  a  Clean  Development  Mechanism
project. Carbon credits derived from the project are recognized as Certified Emission Reductions.
  Pulp & Paper: The palm pulp and paper are produced through the extraction and conversion of fibre
from EFB. TSH has  collaborated with Forest Research  Institute of Malaysia  (FRIM) and Malaysian
Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to undertake this landmark project which received a commercialization grant
from the government. A palm pulp and paper plant with capacity to produce 30,000 tons of paper per
annum is presently in progress and is scheduled to commence commercial production by 2Q10. The
end product is writing paper which is branded as ‘EkoPaper’.

Source: TSH
MIDF EQUITY BEAT
Monday, 29 March 2010


4
Future planting expenditures to be financed from internally generated funds. Based on  the target new planting
of  5,000  Ha  per  annum,  and  assuming  average  planting  cost  of  RM13,000/Ha,  TSH’s  annual  new  planting
expenditures  is estimated at RM65 million. However,  to  incur more borrowings on  the new planting program are not
tenable as TSH’s net debt/equity position is currently approaching 70%. Thus the management has indicated that the
new planting program will be mainly financed by internally generated funds. If the CPO prices were to hold at around
prevailing  levels  going  forward,  TSH  should  be  able  to  generate  enough  cash  flows  for  the  purposes  of  the  new
planting program.

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发表于 2010-5-15 00:53 | 显示全部楼层
12# chengyk


挺好笑的。但是服务还不错哦!有银行的服务水准。

这个100000公顷是很强大的,要是都种满了油棕,那可不得了。我国的几个油棕股,不见得可以超过那数目。

而且这个树龄也得知道,要是都超过十多年,就不太好了。若是刚刚种植,也没有收成。

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发表于 2010-5-15 15:41 | 显示全部楼层
翻查过这两年的年报,看到Capex增大了,尤其是在种植方面。现在还是处于负自由现金流的状态。

这要查看,他那111,000公倾的地段到底有多少未成熟与成熟棕树了,不然很难去要我买它的未来。

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发表于 2010-5-17 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
以下是 TSH 的回复:

1. What is the total hectares of plantation land in TSH now?

Total hectares of plantation land in TSH is close to 100,000 ha, comprising land in Sabah, Kalimantan and Sumatera.

2. How many hectares is planted with palm trees? How many hectares is not planted?

Abt 25,000 ha is planted with palm trees.

3. What is the tree's ages for the planted land?

Tree ages are well-spread with trees in Sabah at prime matured age. Trees in Indonesia are relatively young with some matured trees. The spread is approximately as follows:

0-3 years: 13,000 ha
4-20 years: 12,000 ha


4. I know TSH is working hard to plan the palm trees in Indonesia's land, how many hectares is planted every year?

Yes. TSH is planning and working to plant up to 5,000 ha per annum.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-17 20:34 | 显示全部楼层
这些是TSH公司给的资料应该正确, 和我找到在MIDF的差不多一样, 之前的资料在 public investment bank 的research 就有些出入.

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发表于 2010-5-17 22:53 | 显示全部楼层
翻查过这两年的年报,看到Capex增大了,尤其是在种植方面。现在还是处于负自由现金流的状态。

这要查看,他那111,000公倾的地段到底有多少未成熟与成熟棕树了,不然很难去要我买它的未来。
蛋散 发表于 2010-5-15 15:41


我对于 Capex 还不是很熟悉,蛋散兄可以分享一下 Capex 增加了的好处和坏处吗? 我们可以从 Capex 里看到什么东西?

谢谢。

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发表于 2010-5-17 23:13 | 显示全部楼层
以下是 TSH 的回复:

Total hectares of plantation land in TSH is close to 100,000 ha, comprising land in Sabah, Kalimantan and Sumatera.

Abt 25,000 ha is planted with palm trees.

Tree ages are well-spread with trees in Sabah at prime matured age. Trees in Indonesia are relatively young with some matured trees. The spread is approximately as follows:

0-3 years: 13,000 ha
4-20 years: 12,000 ha

Yes. TSH is planning and working to plant up to 5,000 ha per annum.


这个 ha 是公顷的意思吗?100‘000,有25000ha种植,这个数量很普通而已,而且树龄不平均,太年轻了。要是再过7-8年才是高峰期。若是每年计划种植5000 ha,那么还是需要等待几年以后才有好收入。

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