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楼主: 夜孩子

夜孩子专区: 发达投资法 - FATA Investing

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-7 23:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-7 23:48 编辑

96# tan81

Another reason as why I don't agree with robert kiyosaki, is that, yes, Buffett did timed to buy during downturn. But mostly he only timed for buying. Once bought he never exit, unless he found better investment opportunity or the price edi gone crazily high. But robert not only timed for buying, but also time for exit, even the price didn't gone wild. He juz afraid of losing money. And during those previous cycles of downturn, Buffett only timed for buying, or add more holdings on his old portfolio, not soley bcoz he think it's the right time, but bcoz he saw the value and the bargain. I do agree that buffett did most of his buying during major downturn, but not everytime he did buy at lowest price. Sometimes even fair price he already bought it. He bought Coca-cola with average price of 6.50, pre-tax profit abt 40sen +, PE is abt 15-20, I wud say tat's jz a fair price rather than a bargain price. I guess the key is just to make sure you have some reserve cash throughout the time, and only use up all of it during downturn. But I don't recall anytime did Buffett sell his portfolio to reserve cash. I would say he only accumulate cash from dividend and business. So he didn't really timed to buy after all. His success was mainly due to his discipline in financial management and frugal lifestyle, which enables him to meet the major downturn, and making full use of it.

The major difference between a normal investor and warren buffett is that, warren buffet has a "B" as a base, which provides good cash flow, while our base is mostly an "E" or "S". The rate of return you can generate as an "I" is the same, regardless of who you are. But if you start invest using "E" or "S" as a base, you are starting from 1, if you start invest using "B" as a base, you are starting from 100-1000.

Coldeye start as a "E", which I believe is the main reason why he's not a billionaire yet. The fastest way to get rich is like wat Robert Kiyosaki said, create sth in ur asset column without using money, jz using ur brain, to make an idea that cost you zero to become an asset that worth millions. Once you start from 1 million, you are 100 times faster than those who start from 10k.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-7 23:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-7 23:55 编辑

Just to share: One of the undervalued companies that I have bought...FIMACORP

Last Nov, bought a boring company named FIMACORP. Why I said it's boring, cause this stocks almost have no trading everyday. Everyday also the seller is reluctant to sell at low price, while buyers are reluctant to buy at high price. So sometimes there can b no transaction even for a week.

Bought 500 shares of it with just RM2.95 per share. So it's juz a RM1475 of capital. The reason that I buy it:

1. Company has shown consistent growth in net profit for the past 5 years. EPS grow from 28.5 sen in 2005 to 70sen in 2009. Yet, the price is still as low as RM2.95. P/E ratio 4.2++, meaning each year earn 70 sen, after 4.2 yeas u can earn back ur capital of RM2.95.

2. So why this company is undervalued? I supposed the company have had some poor performance in the past, might even had lose money before, thus many people edi neglected this company.

3. This company basically operates on 2 business. Rental from a 4 storey plaza and printing security documents, revenue stamp, JPJ documents, and even bank notes. But why the profit increase so much for the last 5 years? Especially in March 2008, EPS only 38 sen but in March 2009, EPS is 70sen. That's because in 2006, company switch their organization, they have capital expenditure on Palm Oil plantations since 2006. So the company begins to focus on palm oil business, aiming to make it one of their primary business.

4. The company has low debts and liabilities. With an equity of RM250 million, all the long term borrowings and loans are less than 10 million. Summore the company has cash and bank balance of 82 million. Enough to cover everything even if something happens. The only concern is that the receivables are quite high...about 80 million. Meaning got RM80 million of inventories given, yet haven't receive money. But later on I found that RM70 million of it are owe by Government of Malaysia, so it's not a concern that u can't get back the money on receivables. Usually receivables are money that u can get back within 1 year, mayb 3-6 months like that.

5. The net tangible asset of the company itself (property, assets, machines, inventories, cash, investment funds) edi worth RM3.20 a share. So buying something worth RM3.20 at price of RM2.95 has limited amount of risk.

6. From what I know as a biochem student, the trees of palm oil takes 3 years time from date planted to be able to harvest fresh fruit bunches (FFB). And usually the harvest is at peak between year 5 - 20. And can have a life span of up to 25 years. So even they have fruits after 3 years, the harvest is not highly profitable until the 5th year. And as soon as the trees aged 3 years, they are quite big and strong enough to resist from pest and disease. So maintenance cost for palm oil trees basically greatly reduce by more than 80% after the 3rd year.

7. So, planted trees back in 2006, and I bought at Nov of 2009. Meaning now those trees have jz began to harvest fruits and yield profits. So, I do estimate that the maintenance cost will be greatly reduce for the coming years, and few years later the profits will go even higher on year 5 onwards. Summore the company have total of 19k hectares of land in indonesia. The book value of those lands are cheap, average only RM700 per hectares while it cost you RM20k to buy 1 hectare of palm oil land in Malaysia. I know a land in Kalimantan is worthless to be convert into other lands for profit, but at least for plantation, getting a hectare at RM700 is very cheap.

8. I treat stocks as business. If I wanna buy a palm oil company, means I'm more or less like doing palm oil business on my own. But if I do on my own, I have to buy 1 hectare at RM20k in Malaysia. If I buy all 82 million shares of FIMACORP at RM2.95, I'm using RM241 million to buy the whole company. Meaning RM241 million / 19k hectares = average of RM12k per hectare (relatively cheap). Even the land itself of the company edi worth market price of RM20k X 19k hectares = RM380 million (or RM4.63 per share). So if I buy at RM2.95, it's juz like I'm buying a 380 million company at price of 241 million (if u compare it to doing palm oil business on ur own).

9. The company has cash and bank balance of RM82 million/ 82 million shares, meaning each share itself edi got RM1 of cash. So what is my risk? Almost zero (unless the boss do anything bad in company). But the return is uncountable. So I dun have any reason why I can't give it a try with juz RM1.4k.

9. The company only has 6k hectares of land planted so far, the remaining 12k+ still pending approval from Indonesia Gov. So even 6k hectares planted also got such profit, what happens if all 19k hectares planted? Means the company still got a high potential to go up in share price.

10. But not much people seems to be interested in this company. Mainly becoz 60% of the share owns by the director, Ahmad Basir (also director of United Plantation company, so palm oil to him is easy job). Director and all big share holders edi have more than 80% of the shares, leaving only 16 million of shares traded in the market. Each day there were less than 10,000 shares traded. So with this kind of volume, big buyers (fund and issurance manager) and technical investors are not interested cause it's hard for them to get in and get out for profit on price. That's y even the company has such good profit also, the newspaper seems to neglect its presence. Those so called experts only know how to focus on those hot pick companies, hot tips etc.

11. So I bought at RM2.95, and 3 weeks later...end of Nov, quater results show that the revenue remains the same, but the company has 29% growth in profit due to reduction in cost. And the price went up to RM3.20, after getting an interim dividend of 8 sen per share, the price diluted to abt RM3.15 for quite some time until Dec. Total dividend is about 18sen a year, which is abt 6.1% if I buy at RM2.95...double the amount of bank savings. So even the price didn't go up, at least I still have 6.1% every year.

12. There's an advantage of picking such stocks for small buyers like me...there are twice when there's a drop in market due to Dubai Crisis in Nov and when China and US plans to reduce loans in Jan. But however, this company is standing still at RM3.10-3.15...y? Bcoz there's no trading done! =P so the price won't change if there's no transaction.

13. And when the company announced their 3rd quater results, it shows that their 9 month cumulative profit grow by 55% compare to last year...I supposed mainly due to growth in the harvest of FFB. And the price begin to soars...RM3.2, RM3.45, until RM3.60 for quite a few days. But yet, the newspaper and media mentioned nothing abt this company, seems as nobody ever knows it. But a week later, when the company starts to draw some attention, the price went up to RM4.15, with a daily trading volume of more than 10,000 shares everyday (previously always no trading). Yesterday, this company is edi trading at RM4.48. And to me, it's still quite worth buying bcoz the PE is still low and there are still many lands not planted, jz that I dun have any excessive cash edi =P

So, bought 500shares at RM2.95 in 2nd Nov, capital of RM1475, today worth ~RM4.50 X 500 shares, value is ~RM2250, gain 52.5% in 5 months. Should I convinced myself that I'm right that time?

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发表于 2010-5-8 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
厉害哦

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发表于 2010-5-8 00:58 | 显示全部楼层
97# 夜孩子

Read some where before FIMACORP's security printing contract with government end at 2012?

ps: no too sure, you may need to check it out yourself.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-8 03:16 编辑

104# 尔齐


I know, even it didn't end by 2012, I supposed if BN turun stage then FIMACORP may not get the business anymore. But this is also why the company is trying to push the palm oil business. Now the earnings from palm oil is edi matching the earnings from printing. I believe the subsequent years will be improving. And summore I buy this company not really for long term...jz medium 3-5 years, mainly to take advantage of it's newly planted palm oil trees. Once it's getting popular, PE reaching 10 or above, I will consider selling edi. Over the long run, plantation giants like batu kawan, IOICORP, or PPB will still perform better than FIMACORP...this is no doubt to be true. But at the moment, PE 5-6 to invest on a plantation company is a good bargain.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 01:11 | 显示全部楼层
bcoz overall, I dun think FIMACORP management is as good as the likes of PBBANK and LPI. If one day FIMACORP grow enough, I will sell it and convert the profit to acquire more LPI or PBBANK. Anyway, I still can't be sure if this plan will work. Coz I'm applying part of Lynch's theory in investing FIMACORP. Some of it are things like the easier the business the better. Printing kinda services are quite easy, risk are limited, and quite well under control. And Lynch theory also include 名字听起来越傻越好,公司越冷门越好。FIMACORP is estimated to make another profit of 30 million in the coming quater. If the company didn't distribute the earnings, cash will increase another 30sen....reaching RM1.30 per share. I know coldeye did mention abt the risk of management not sharing the cash, but if things keeps on like this, one day even the cash also might be more than RM5....so I think it's jz a matter of time for the price to go up.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 01:18 | 显示全部楼层
Furthermore, if applying buffett's concept in financial analysis, I don't see much problem with FIMACORP's account. The only concern is receivables from the government...so I may consider sell if general election is going on soon

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 02:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-8 03:10 编辑

98# tan81

If according to Lynch's theory, many of those potential growing companies often takes quite a long time before they draw ppl's attention and became a superstar. I know theory is a theory, but FIMACORP is a good learning opportunity for me as well, other than investment opportunity. At least this company gradually transforming from a no trading company into a regular trading company already. Volume is significantly higher compare to end of last year. Anyway, I'm not hoping it to be a superstar, but even give it a PE of 8-10, it may worth about RM10 in already, based on an estimated EPS of 90sen-100sen for the coming report.

On my own analysis, there are 4 reasons why such high earnings company didn't draw ppl's interest to buy it:

1. Low dividend payout. 2008 EPS 70sen, dividend only 17 sen. The reason why company with such healthy financial figures still having PE of 4-6 is mainly becoz of this. Ppl are aiming for DY of 4-6%, thus, to have DY of 4-6% for such company, it causes the price to be lowered.

2. Low volume. 60% owned by director, while major shareholders edi holding more than 75%.

3. The company might have some poor performance in the pass, which makes ppl neglect its presence already, or not putting high hopes on it.

4. Ppl are not really confident with the management. The event of getting the other 12k hectares of land approved by indo gov is still a "maybe, may not be event"

Another point is that, Public Finance HK has been in HK for more than 10 years edi. Lately still trading at PE of 6-7. For the same group of management, it's a superstar in Malaysia, but an underdog in HK (for the time being). Only those who confident with Public's business in HK and their management will apply Lynch's theory in accumulating it while it's still not famous or the favourites among the pros investors. I'm not trying to match FIMACORP's management quality with the likes of Public. But FIMACORP is some sort of experimental trial that I'm trying to learn by applying part of Lynch's philosophy. In future, every 5 companies that I have in my portfolio, I will try to look for 1 company like tat and mix with 4 other famous blue chips.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 03:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-8 03:13 编辑

98# tan81

Also bear in mind that the plantation starts only back in 2006. People still doubting on its potential. But for those who understand palm oil plantation might see the bargain. Juz like Nestle in Malaysia. I believe if 30 years ago, when Nestle is still not famous in Malaysia, for those who love to drink Milo often will definitely stand higher chances to spot the potential of Nestle way ealier than the pro investors who were not exposed to Milo. If 30-40 years ago, if a pro fund manager bought a company named Nestle, ppl might even ask why you bought a company with such a silly or weird name? I believe until the day that companies like coca-cola or Nestle become famous, prior to that most people will think that coca-cola and nestle kinda name is stupid and not really related to their products. They even believe:"Simple business like this can't make you rich". But Lynch and buffett always like the business to be the simpler the better. And in the end, those who invest in general motor, airlines, IT, with all those high tech pro names now all became millionaires, from once being a billionaire.

Anyway, like I said, FIMACORP is jz a learning oppotunity to a newbie like me, by experimenting part of Lynch's philosophy.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 09:43 | 显示全部楼层
Even if my plan on FIMACORP fails one day, it's jz another lesson to be learn in investment. We all learn lessons by making mistakes. If we are too afraid of making mistakes, we forever never really learn any valuable lessons. Our school always teach us not to make mistakes, which is why those top scorer in schools who lack of financial literacy mostly fail in stocks investment. Because of afraid to make mistakes, once they buy a particular stocks, they can't accept the price to drop. Whatever they bought, the price must go up, if not that's already a mistake. And they are too afraid of making mistakes, just becoz our school systems always warn us not to make mistakes, instead of learning by making mistakes.

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发表于 2010-5-8 10:23 | 显示全部楼层
欢迎你参考我的经验。
林奇的投资,属于分散投资的。
10家里面,3家优秀,4家中等,3家不良,他还是赚大钱的。
分散投资的主要原因,就是它们都是小公司。
要小公司持续成长,并且有优秀、诚实的管理层,概率很小。
缺乏监管的大马,概率更小。

你的资料和计算,都是没有错的。
不过有一点,是要提醒你的。
不是每个管理层会把赚到的现金,继续留在库存现金里的。
他们总会有各种方法,透过不派发股息的方式,慢慢挖空。

不要看Bursa 那么多公司,只是看我买过的几家例子:
AIM (Mesdaq)公司有RM20M以上的现金,在保留这笔现金3年后,开始一年花7-8M 来购置地皮。
MFCB 现金多过 RM100M。2年后,管理层开始拿现钱来买卖股票,并且没有在年报揭示买卖的对象。
Granflo (Mesdaq)上市的最初2年,现金充盈。开始不断的收购别家公司。从1、2年收购一家,变成1年内收购3家。
Triumphal 在改组后,成功地提升自己的盈利和现金流。身为管理层的2父子,每人每年拿200万年薪,共400万,每年派发给股东的股息不到RM200万。

对于我而言,有很好的现金流公司,却没有准备派发给股东的公司,都是你必须提放和留意的。
我在对它们估值的时候,就不会把这个列为有利的考量了。

如果你要做实验,或许可以考虑这一点。反正你现在的买价,赚到了不少钱。
或许你可以卖出50% ,保留盈利。保留另外50% ,继续观察。
经过一段时日后,也许你就可以比较得出,当初的那个选项才是正确的。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-8 12:11 编辑

111# tan81

难得陈总对我这后辈这么提点与关心,真是感激不尽。由于本钱有限,所以我的实验只能有 FIMACORP 一家公司也是避免不了的事。你所提到的重点,其实我也有顾虑过。就是因为酱我才认为它不是一个能够让我长期高枕无忧的公司。也认同你的建议。其实酱的公司即使日后有更大的赚幅,我的选择只有两个:

1 卖完,然后转车到像大众或LPI之类的公司。

2 卖掉部分股权,拿回本钱,赚幅留着,继续做实验,当作是免费的股,让他自由奔驰。

除非有一天,管理层肯提高派息率,不然即使业绩继续进步,我也不会再对它加码。

不过,年报里还有一点值得一提的是,公司虽然没有大方派息,但却有大量回购股票。而且还是在金融海啸股价最低潮时大量买进。分别是在 2008 四月至2009 三月,以 RM1.80 - 2.27, 平均 RM2.03 大量回购股。截止与2008年时,公司的现金只有 RM12 million, 却在全年用了 RM1,413,094 回购股票, 占了现金的 11.7%。对一家资本小的公司来说,肯用 11.7% 的现金来回购股票,而且能有效地运用现金,来达到高回酬,已经算很难得了。除此之外,2008-2009 用了 RM62 million 在 acquisition of subsidiary, 主要是印尼的一家种植公司。最新季度的报告用了 RM11 million 在 purchase of plant and equipment。这些都主要是为了扩展油棕油的业务。所以派息率低也是无法避免的。暂时还看不出 cash flow 有任何可疑的地方,但我还是会加倍小心。

何况本益比很低,即使没有大方派息,我买的时候 DY 也有 6%。如果它像 NESLTE 那样派 100% 的话,PE = DY, PE 4+, DY > 20%。当然,我不是期待它会像NESTLE 那样大方派息,我是想说它是因为没有大方派息,众人才会不肯给他高的评价。但即使只有 DY 6%, 风险也是有限。

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发表于 2010-5-8 12:26 | 显示全部楼层
不敢,不敢。只是互相交换看法而已。

MFCB 回购自家公司的股票,也是数额惊人的。你有兴趣的话,可以查询年报。
这一点,还是不代表什么的。我想要说的重点是,大股东还是没有准备把钱拿出来和小股东分享。
当现金多了,公司开始不务正业的寻求其他业务发展,你就要小心了。
巴菲特和林奇都针对这样的企业举动,留下许多不好的印象。
公司在开拓自己核心业务以外的业务时,往往都是坏消息来的。

DY 6%, 根本没有安全空间。你现价买 PBB,一两年后,DY 也是6%。
如果你在寻找安全空间,DY一定要高过蓝筹股的基准。
不然,倒不如我买入蓝筹股就好了。

当然,各花入各眼。我只是想给你看看你自己想法的另外一面而已。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 12:43 | 显示全部楼层
那以巴菲特本身的公司来说,它甚至是一点股息都没派,这又应该如何去衡量呢?

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发表于 2010-5-8 12:49 | 显示全部楼层
114# 夜孩子

哈哈, 你开始想要狡辩了。
首先,我会说业务不同。Icap 是不派股息的。
所有的投资公司,都是不派股息的。

第二,如果今天的Nestle 开始不派息,我会很高兴。
就好象微软不派息,股东不会不爽的。因为管理层的能力和诚实是被认可的。

至于Fima 开始不派息了,我会跑都来不及了。

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发表于 2010-5-8 12:59 | 显示全部楼层
116# ShynanGoh

那么,你认为那一点Kimhin 好过Nestle?
不如你来分享一下。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 13:19 | 显示全部楼层
114# 夜孩子

哈哈, 你开始想要狡辩了。
首先,我会说业务不同。Icap 是不派股息的。
所有的投资公司,都是不派股息的。

第二,如果今天的Nestle 开始不派息,我会很高兴。
就好象微软不派息,股东不会不 ...
tan81 发表于 2010-5-8 12:49


受教了,我会加倍小心的。不过我觉得至少还能够期待这个月公布的业绩。风险肯定是比别的投资大,但是至少我所看到的潜能,目前还值得我去冒险。巴菲特的公司,虽然是投资公司,但还是从别的业务转型过来的。但从刚开始到现在依然也是没有派息。即使是别的投资公司也大同小异。PPB 也是一个很好的转型例子。以往的派息率也不高,业务曾经一时也多样化到有点乱七八糟。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 13:30 | 显示全部楼层
FIMACORP 最新季度棕油业务已经在净利有 40% 的贡献。而且暂时主要业务也只由印刷和棕油,还不至于乱来。所以我还不能认同陈总所说的不务正业。印刷的业务前景可能不太明朗,尤其是如果 2012 年换了政府就很难保证它还能签到合约。但到时相信棕油业务已足以取代印刷了。所以公司之所以会开拓棕油业务为自己铺后路其实也是可以理解的。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-8 15:11 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-8 15:24 编辑

而且其实我们也不需要讲得太远,如果要把重点简化的话,就应该只有几个:

1. 从财报中的数字分析,相信陈总应该也能接受这是一家能赚钱的生意,财务属于稳健,能赚钱的公司。

2. 棕油业务在未来两三年的潜能确实存在,无可否认还可以继续成长。

3. 印刷的业务也许换了政府之后没人敢保证能再续约。但我觉得酱的服务应该不是说一时要换人做就能换的,毕竟它牵涉到国家机密文件。况且我也说过了,公司要棕油业务在将来能取代印刷业务的走向相当明显。

4. 关键问题最终还是回到管理层的诚信度,还有能否与股东分享盈利。

既然能把种种风险及因素确认后加以分析,那风险就没有像原本的那么可怕。当确认了这些因素之后,我想作为一个散户的我,该做的,能做的功课,都已经做了。剩下的,也只能听天由命了。即使有时太过执著于管理层的诚信也不见得一定有保障。Transmile 及 Goldman Sachs 就是例子了。即使如今 Goldman Sachs 的信用度起了疑问,也不见得巴菲特有放弃过它,因为对他而言,他仍然相信 Goldman 还是一个能够赚钱的公司。即使是像 PBB, LPI, Nestle 这样的公司,我也不排除它们会有“百年基业,毁于一旦”的一天。这种事情,没有人能够预料,是防不胜防的。所以目前对我而言,只要是赚钱的生意,只要是有潜能的公司,只要股价合理或被低估,我都会考虑投资。因为赚钱的公司 + 有诚信的管理层 酱的公司不是处处能找到。投资也没有时时刻刻讲求完美。剩下的,就听天由命,看看个人运气了。况且也现在也并不至于把所有的资本集中于它一家,所以我应该还算是理智的。风险总是会有,但由于它所能给予的回酬很大,所以我才认为值得我冒酱的风险。

我会逐步的跟进它的进展,对于它在不同的发展阶段,做出一些不同的投资回酬及要求。比方说,如果两三年后,公司业务已上了轨道,但仍然没有增加派息,那我会连句“再见”也省掉。暂时来说,我觉得只要他仍然有在未来的季度逐步提高派息率,我仍然还会对它有期待。这也是我对于它在不同发展阶段的要求之一。如果它给不到我所要的东西,那我就会卖掉。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-9 02:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 夜孩子 于 2010-5-9 02:41 编辑

母亲节到了,此刻我却还在吉兰丹念书,爸爸在怡保教书,而妈妈则在槟城外家休养。虽然只有一家三口,但却分别在三个不同的地方,真是遗憾。相信今年的母亲节是妈妈最难过的一年了....妈,你要赶快好起来。

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