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楼主: lcchong76

lcchong76 专区:迈向财务自由

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-12-23 23:22 | 显示全部楼层
AHEALTH Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-23-dec-2013/

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-12-28 23:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lcchong76 于 2013-12-29 00:01 编辑

资汇 - 2014 - 5好股

5个当中, 我有2个.



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发表于 2014-1-5 01:35 | 显示全部楼层
多谢分享。。。

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发表于 2014-1-6 11:59 | 显示全部楼层
路过。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-7 12:36 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2014-1-8 00:55 | 显示全部楼层
回复 165# lcchong76


    开不到。

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-8 07:37 | 显示全部楼层
回复 166# nspuum


    有什么错误讯息吗? upload一个screenshot给我看看.

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-8 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
KMLOONG–Waiting for bullish breakout

KMLOONG released FY14Q3 result on 31 Dec 2013. I yet to have time to analyse it thoroughly. The following figure shows my observation at this moment.

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-8 22:42 | 显示全部楼层
MAYBANK–Wait for new support


Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding:

1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel.
2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65.
3.The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4
4.The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years.
5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish.
6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK.

In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT.

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-9 21:02 | 显示全部楼层
AIRASIA Analysis –
lcchong76 发表于 2013-11-23 15:28



    最近几天, EPF开始净买入AIRASIA. 继续观察, 期待中

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发表于 2014-1-10 10:21 | 显示全部楼层
Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fu ...
lcchong76 发表于 2014-1-8 22:42



    Do you mean a new resistance point lower than 9.6??

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-10 10:28 | 显示全部楼层
回复 171# ShawnRiver


    the nearest resistance is 10.00, then 10.4, then 10.6, then 10.8. these form a strong resistance zone. MAYBANK needs solid growth drivers to break this zone.

It may find a new support zone/level to accumulate the strength.

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发表于 2014-1-12 15:58 | 显示全部楼层
Dear LC,

I have some enquiries regarding the DCF model after reading some articles in Morningstar and oldschoolvalue.

It's seem that the most important elements in the DCF model are the growth rate and the discount rate. A slight change on one of the rates itself will give a very big different result for the valuation.

So for the growth rate, I studied some of your analysis excel files, normally you would started with high growth rate at the first 3 years then followed by reducing growth rate for the following years. Exp: 10% (1st to 3rd year), 9% (4th to 7th) and 7% (8th to 10th year). I think this is to make the valuation more conservative a bit as the company cannot growth at a high rate forever, am I right?

As for the discount rate or cost of capital, the article mentioned is the sum of risk - free rate plus the risk premium. Isn't the risk free rate similar to our FD rate. So in this case, can I use 3% as the articles said normally use 5%. Apart from that, it mentioned the rate normally in range of 8-14%. The company that is more risker in terms of unpredictable cash flow normally have higher discount rate.

As for the long term growth rate that use to calculate perpetuity value normally calculate using 3%. Is it okay as I know this is only assumption.

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-12 20:29 | 显示全部楼层
回复 173# ctyap


    Let me think how to reply your inquiries.

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发表于 2014-1-12 20:36 | 显示全部楼层
回复 174# lcchong76


    Haha, okay. Thanks for your time and effort. Appreciate that.

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发表于 2014-1-13 22:18 | 显示全部楼层
all these stocks recommended will be underperformers

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-19 20:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lcchong76 于 2014-1-19 20:40 编辑

- Fair values:
  - 5-Y DCF - 3.25 - 3.63
  - EY% - 2.77 - 3.29
  - Absolute PE - 3.69
  - In my opinion, 3.2 - 3.6 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued.
- As of now, the margin of safety is from 20% - 29%.
- From technical analysis perspective, we got one issue: 2.65 - 2.8 is a very strong resistance area. KMLOONG couldn't penetrate this area since 2008.
- I will monitor KMLOONG closely and use TA to find good signal.

For more information, please visit http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-19-jan-2014/

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发表于 2014-1-19 20:38 | 显示全部楼层
很informative....楼主加油

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-21 10:25 | 显示全部楼层
回复 173# ctyap


    I have some enquiries regarding the DCF model after reading some articles in Morningstar and oldschoolvalue.

It's seem that the most important elements in the DCF model are the growth rate and the discount rate. A slight change on one of the rates itself will give a very big different result for the valuation.

So for the growth rate, I studied some of your analysis excel files, normally you would started with high growth rate at the first 3 years then followed by reducing growth rate for the following years. Exp: 10% (1st to 3rd year), 9% (4th to 7th) and 7% (8th to 10th year). I think this is to make the valuation more conservative a bit as the company cannot growth at a high rate forever, am I right?

- Yes. I want to be conservative. One pitfall of DCF is we tend to make the end result very beautiful. So, I applied decay rate.

As for the discount rate or cost of capital, the article mentioned is the sum of risk - free rate plus the risk premium. Isn't the risk free rate similar to our FD rate. So in this case, can I use 3% as the articles said normally use 5%. Apart from that, it mentioned the rate normally in range of 8-14%. The company that is more risker in terms of unpredictable cash flow normally have higher discount rate.

As for the long term growth rate that use to calculate perpetuity value normally calculate using 3%. Is it okay as I know this is only assumption.

- Indeed. You can also use EPF interest rate in the assumption. For me, I prefer to use this: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... f-margin-of-safety/

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-26 23:37 | 显示全部楼层
TENAGA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-26-jan-2014/

My View:-

- The outperformance in stock price was a pleasant surprise, although the drivers behind it are likely unsustainable in our view. Nevertheless, 1Q was not a representative quarter in any case, as the new tariffs (+15%) to end-users are only effective in Jan 2014.
- I remain positive on TENAGA as I believe
  i) consensus has yet to incorporate the full earnings accretion from the tariff hike and,
  ii) the reduced earnings risk under the Incentive-based Regulation (IBR) has not been fully priced in.
- I will continue to hold TENAGA even if I sold 60% of stakes. I may accumulate TENAGA a bit if there is a new growth driver.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 Jan 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/mar ... nouncements/1523449

At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.

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