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楼主: lcchong76

lcchong76 专区:迈向财务自由

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-17 02:31 | 显示全部楼层
DELEUM Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-17-nov-2013/

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发表于 2013-11-18 19:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 darvinmk 于 2013-11-18 21:24 编辑

请教前辈 有使用dividend growth model算fair value吗? 这个公式有没有什么缺点?

小弟也想学算公司的fair value但是不知从何下手

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发表于 2013-11-19 00:19 | 显示全部楼层
Lc 最喜欢你的分享。

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发表于 2013-11-19 00:33 | 显示全部楼层
lc 你同意一句话吗,给你最高return 的通常是那些depress stock. Because they are oversold. Like hohup....only if someone go to digg into those pn17 stock and see what is in the book and see future potential can earn extraordinary return

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-20 11:52 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-20 14:23 | 显示全部楼层
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/20/excel-templateenhancements/

I have made few major enhancements to my excel template for my own benefits (and also hopefully will benefit you as well).

Changed presentation of presenting the financial data

The following table consists of the raw financial data, and linked to SQL Server database. This is the data source for all calculations and analysis in my excel template. I still maintain this table in my excel template, but I have made it hidden.

Sometimes, when I want to understand why CROIC or Cash Conversion Cycle of a company getting so high (or so low), I will refer to this table to find out the root cause. The issue is this table is very long, and I have to scroll here and there to find the relevant data. This is quite time consuming.

So, to make my life easier, I have created three more worksheets: Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow.

Few important things you may need to aware:

  • I follow classification used by MorningStar in my financial statement.
  • This means some of naming standard that I use here is not exactly same with annual report.
  • For some classifications, I added few items in annual report together. For example, “Investment/Asset Impairment Charges” in “Net Cash From Operations” is sum of “Property, plant and equipment written off”, “Allowance for inventories write down/(back)”, “Inventories written off” and “Impairment loss on receivables”.
  • The reason I need to use these classifications is I need to make some standardization so that I can store financial data in database without creating too much overhead maintenance.
You should also notice many percentage values in my financial statement. This is structural analysis or common-size analysis financial statements. This analysis helps me to easily identify large or drastic changes in a firm’s financials. Rapid increases or decreases will be readily observable, such as a rapid drop in reported profits during one year.This format of financial statement is not suitable for banks though. I will design a format specifically for banks.

Staging Worksheet for Calculated Values/Ratios

I have created a staging worksheet for all calculated values or ratios. The purpose of this worksheet is also to help me easily identify components that attributed to (poor or good) company performance. I believe that you will also gain some benefits as you can easily understand how I derive out calculated values or ratios.

I also incorporated hyperlink in the workbook. If you want to understand the calculation of “Owner Earnings”, just click the link and it will take you to the calculation.

Price vs Intrinsic Value

This chart is to help me to gauge whether effectiveness of DCF in valuing a stock, and also better illustration whether the stock is undervalued or overvalued.

EY% Chart

The concept of EY% chart is actually from EquitiesTracker. It is quite simple to use this chart. A buy signal will be triggered if EY% rises above or close to the green line; a sell signal will be trigger if EY% drops below or close to the red line.

There are few more minor handy enhancements, but not really significant to mention here.

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发表于 2013-11-21 12:17 | 显示全部楼层
A very good fundamental investor... Thx sharing...

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-22 10:26 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2013-11-23 01:08 | 显示全部楼层
lcchong,有没有研究INSAS,ILB?

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-23 15:28 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-24 22:04 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-25 16:32 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-26 13:08 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-26 14:41 | 显示全部楼层
有两位仁兄叫我分享多一点经验, 但是在论坛里, 已经有各式各样的经验分享. 我的故事其实跟大家多差不了多少....

除了发布我本身的分析和一些操作, 我也不知道要写些什么....

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发表于 2013-11-26 15:17 | 显示全部楼层
回复  Myvan


    SCIENTX 肯定在我的list. 我每天都在观察它, 看看能不能从技术分析找到进场机会
lcchong76 发表于 2013-11-14 13:56



    Are you choosing Scientex because of its good operational cash flow?

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-26 15:29 | 显示全部楼层
回复 95# ctyap


    是的. 那是其中一个原因

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-27 14:59 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-27 16:52 | 显示全部楼层
After so many years of investing in AEON (since 2006), my wife and I agreed to dispose AEON few days, and we sold all shares OF AEON today. This decision was mainly for a family’s need, and after spending, the remaining money will be used for bargain hunting in share market (as the bear sentiment is getting higher).

Btw, I also disposed all BAT in October to rebalance my portfolio (too much of sin stocks).

Moving forward, I will consider to dispose 1-2 more stocks to take capital gain and also rebalance my portfolio.

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发表于 2013-11-27 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
why not keep the free shares? means profit portion hold on shares.
let said after sell will earn 2000, just keep 100 shares of AEON?

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-28 17:43 | 显示全部楼层

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