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楼主: lcchong76

lcchong76 专区:迈向财务自由

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发表于 2013-11-6 22:23 | 显示全部楼层
楼主76年的,高手,强!
应该有百万股票了吧

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-6 22:28 | 显示全部楼层
回复 61# slayerng2


    如果只是算股票的话, 还有一点距离.

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-6 22:37 | 显示全部楼层
别只是靠股票. 能的话, 在30岁前, 供完第一间屋子(不管是condo或landed)以及车子. 35岁, 最好是能供第二间房子60%.

有份好的事业能加快你的速度.

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发表于 2013-11-7 01:09 | 显示全部楼层
果然是高手,基本面分析的很深奥,已经是基金经理等级了
小弟我慧根差,很难明白

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-8 22:34 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-9 12:18 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2013-11-9 13:30 | 显示全部楼层
Thanks for the great analysis! Enjoyed reading your analysis on DiGi and Amway
Would you analyze Sunway, Dutch Lady, and Nestle when you have some time?

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-9 14:12 | 显示全部楼层
REIT – Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/reit-cash-flow-and-free-cash-flow/

If you try to estimate the value of a real estate investment trust (REIT), you will quickly find that traditional metrics like the earnings-per-share (EPS) ratio, growth, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple do not apply. (Investopedia)

In this article, I will show you recommended method in calculating cash flow and free cash flow for a REIT company.

Funds From Operations (Cash Flow)

For most businesses, net income numbers, include depreciation expenses, which are significant line items. Depreciation is an acceptable non-cash charge that allocates the cost of an investment made in a prior period. But real estate is different than most fixed-plant or equipment investments: property rarely loses value and often appreciates. Net income, a measure reduced by depreciation, is therefore an inferior gauge of performance. Therefore, REITs are instead judged by funds from operations (FFO), which excludes depreciation.

Unfortunately, in Malaysia, FFO is not commonly reported in annual report. So, we have calculate them by ourselves.

Funds from operations (FFO) is REIT cash flow (no depreciation/amortization). FFO means net income (computed in accordance with GAAP), excluding gains (or losses) from debt restructuring and sales of property, plus depreciation and amortization of assets uniquely significant to the real estate industry, and after adjustments for unconsolidated entities in which the REIT holds an interest. Adjustments for these entities are to be calculated to reflect FFO on the same basis.

How to calculate FFO?

Revenues – Operating expenses – Depreciation & amortization – Interest expense – General & Administrative expense = NET INCOME (GAAP)

Net Income –Profit from real estate sales + Depreciation & amortization = FFO

Example:

Take note that not all items in depreciation and amortization are legitimate for add-backs.

  • Legitimate add-backs
  • real property depreciation
  • amortization of capitalized leasing expenses
  • amortization of tenant allowances and improvements
Add-backs not allowed
  • amortization of deferred financing costs
  • depreciation of computer software
  • depreciation of company office improvements

Based on my experience, many REITs’ annual reports do not segregate depreciation and amortization into details. I observed that depreciation in REITs’ annual reports refers to real property depreciation, and amortization refers to intangible assets amortization. I yet to see amortization “amortization of capitalized leasing expenses” and “amortization of tenant allowances and improvements” in REITs’ annual reports.

Adjusted Funds From Operations (Free Cash Flow)

FFO contains a weakness: it does not deduct for capital expenditures required to maintain the existing portfolio of properties. Shareholders’ real estate holdings must be maintained (for example, apartments must be painted), so FFO is not quite the true residual cash flow remaining after all expenses and expenditures.

In estimating the value of an REIT, professional analysts therefore use a measure called "adjusted funds from operations" (AFFO). Although FFO is commonly used, professionals tend to focus on AFFO for two reasons. One, it is a more precise measure of residual cash flow available to shareholders and therefore a better "base number" for estimating value (for example, applying a multiple or discounting a future stream of AFFO). Two, because it is true residual cash flow, it is a better predictor of the REIT’s future capacity to pay dividends. (Investopedia)

How to calculate AFFO?

FFO – Recurring capital expenditures (e.g. painting, carpets, etc.) – Amortization of tenant improvements – Amortization of leasing commissions – Adjustment for rent straight-lining = Adjusted FFO (AFFO)

In Malaysia REITs’ annual reports, most of the time, “recurring capital expenditures” refers to “Enhancement of investment properties” and “Acquisition of equipment”.

Sometimes. you will see “Acquisition of property, plant and equipment” in REITs’ annual reports, such as STAREIT 2012 annual report. You have to read the footnotes properly. Often, it refers to acquisition of a new investment properties, but this is not a recurring capital expenditures. Remember, the keyword is “recurring”.

As I mentioned just now, you hardly see “Amortization of tenant improvements”, “Amortization of leasing commissions” and “Adjustment for rent straight-lining” in REITs’ annual reports.

Applications of FFO and AFFO

I won’t go into details of applying FFO and AFFO as you learn it from this article: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/112204.asp. For DCF valuation, I use AFFO as “Owner Earnings”.

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-9 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
回复 67# mjboon


    SUNWAY - 等下发新的财报, 我会分析的.
DLADY和NESTLE - 我的老婆有分析, 所以我很久没跟这两个了. 有时间, 我会看看

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-9 16:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lcchong76 于 2013-11-9 16:18 编辑
REIT – Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow


If you try to estimate the value of a real estate investme ...
lcchong76 发表于 2013-11-9 14:12



    这里有一些研究性质较高的参考: http://www.asres.org/Internation ... rs_(ICSC)_award.pdf
http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol33n03/05.415_442.pdf

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-13 23:08 | 显示全部楼层
在未来几天, 我会重新评估我的Observation List和Reserve List. 有可能淘汰当中的几个, 或增加多几个.

我也会考虑应不应该加持PETGAS,或者买入DIALOG/DELEUM.

Observation List

This is a list of stocks where research has been undertaken and which are being monitored to replace stocks taken out from the Portfolio List.

Stock NameDate AnnouncedFinancial PeriodAnalysis Date
AMWAY07/11/2013Q3 201309/11/2013
DIALOG29/10/2013Q4 2013 (FYE)03/11/2013
WELLCAL26/08/2013Q3 201328/10/2013
CYPARK30/09/2013Q3 201325/10/2013
CSCENIC21/08/2013Q2 201324/10/2013
KMLOONG27/09/2013Q2 201401/10/2014
SCIENTX26/09/2013Q4 201330/09/2013
DELEUM22/08/2013Q2 201325/08/2013
AHEALTH21/08/2013Q2 201323/08/2013
NOTION15/08/2013Q3 201319/08/2013

Reserve List

This is a list of stocks with potential, but less attractive vis-a-vis other factors for the time being. I will only keep track of them, but I won’t upload their analysis regularly.

Stock NameDate AnnouncedFinancial PeriodAnalysis Date
YEELEE28/08/2013Q2 201326/10/2013
CCMDBIO28/08/2013Q2 201329/08/2013
QL22/08/2013Q1 201425/08/2013

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-14 12:02 | 显示全部楼层
NOTION analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-14-nov-2013/

我保留NOTION在Observation List. 虽然它现在低于Intrinsic Value, 但是我对它收购ALCYONE的决定有所保留. 暂时先观望.

如果它恢复上升趋势, 我可能会大量买入.

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发表于 2013-11-14 13:46 | 显示全部楼层
楼主太太也是会分析?
太强了...

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发表于 2013-11-14 13:46 | 显示全部楼层
你的observation list你会在现在的价位考虑?

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发表于 2013-11-14 13:49 | 显示全部楼层
在未来几天, 我会重新评估我的Observation List和Reserve List. 有可能淘汰当中的几个, 或增加多几个.

我 ...
lcchong76 发表于 2013-11-13 23:08


looking forward for your research on Scientex....recently they spent 40mil to acquire one polyfilm manufacturing division from Seacera....

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-14 13:56 | 显示全部楼层
回复 75# Myvan


    SCIENTX 肯定在我的list. 我每天都在观察它, 看看能不能从技术分析找到进场机会

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-14 13:57 | 显示全部楼层
回复 74# cx5


都是在现在价位附近考虑. 没机会的话, 就等了.

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-15 07:26 | 显示全部楼层
QL Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... alysis-15-nov-2013/

我暂时还会保留QL在Reserve List. 虽然它的价格在这几年飙升, 但是它始终不符合我的一些投资条件. 我会继续观察QL, 但是不会把投资它.

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发表于 2013-11-16 14:36 | 显示全部楼层
回复 78# lcchong76


    Why can't see your analysis after download your files. It only show the cover page. Thks

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-11-16 22:05 | 显示全部楼层
回复 79# slayerng2


    你是用office 2010/2013吗? 如果是的话, 点击bottom的tab

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