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楼主: lcchong76

lcchong76 专区:迈向财务自由

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-30 09:12 | 显示全部楼层
我搜集了一些财务可能造假或危机的指标:

1. Growth in revenues out of sync with economy, industry or peers companies, and with growth in A/R
- Bill and hold sales - invoicing a sale without shipping merchandise
- Sales type leases - Lessor reporting leases as a sale, particularly when the lessee is treating the transaction as an operating lease
- Recording revenue at the time a contract is sign
2. Aggressive revenue recognition
- Bill and hold sales - invoicing a sale without shipping merchandise
- Sales type leases - Lessor reporting leases as a sale, particularly when the lessee is treating the transaction as an operating lease
- Recording revenue at the time a contract is signed, but before delivery of goods or services.
- Recording revenue prior to fulfilling all of the terms of contracts
- The use of swaps or barter arrangements to generate sales
3. Loosen customers' credit terms, which induces them to buy more products or services
- The trick here is that even though the company has recorded a sale - which increases revenues - the customer has not yet paid for the product. If enough customers don't pay-and those looser credit terms are probably attracting financially shakier customers-the pumped-up growth rate will eventually come back to bite the company in the form of a nasty write-down or charge against earnings.
4. A/R increases much faster than booking sales
- You should track how fast A/R are increasing relative to sales-the two should roughly track each other. But if sales increase by; for example, 15 percent, while A/R increases 25 percent, the company is booking sales faster than it's receiving cash from its customers. (Remember, A/R measures goods that are sold, but not yet paid for.) As a general rule, it's simply not possible for A/R to increase faster than sales for a long time-the company is paying out more money (as finished goods) than it's taking in (through cash payments).
5. The "allowance for doubtful accounts" out of line with A/R
- On the credit front, watch the "allowance for doubtful accounts," which is essentially the company's estimate of how much money it won't be able to collect from deadbeat customers. If this amount doesn't move up in sync with A/R, the company may be artificially boosting its results by being overly optimistic about how many of its new customers will pay their bills.
6. Classification of non-operating or non-recurring income as revenue
7. Operating cash flow out of line with reported earnings.
- If a company is reporting positive and perhaps growing earnings, but cash flow is negative or declining this could indicate accounting irregularities
8. Growth in inventory out of line with sales growth or days inventory increasing over time.
- This could indicate problems with inventory management, potentially obsolete inventory or, in some cases inappropriate overstatement of inventory to increase gross and net profits
9. Deferral of expenses
- The accounting policies may indicate that current expenditures are being capitalized and deferred to future years (through amortization or some other means).
It is important to identify if this is a common industry practice or whether the company is boosting current period profits.
10. Classification of expenses or losses as extraordinary or non-recurring.
This practice makes the historical financials muddier because every charge has a long explanation and usually has various components that affect different accounts - all of which need to be adjusted if you want to look at comparable year-to-year financial results.

Frequent charges are an open invitation to accounting hanky-panky because firms can bury bad decisions in a single restructuring charge. Usually, the rationale for a charge is pretty vague, which means there's a fair amount of leewy of management.

When a firm takes a big restructuring charge, it's essentially improving future results by pulling future expenses into the present. In other words, poor decisions that might need to be paid for in future quarters-an unsuccessful product that may need to be terminated or a bloated division that will need to pay severance payments to redundant employees-all get rolled into a single one-time charge in the current quarter, which improves future results.

If you run across a firm that has frequent restructuring charges, don't ignore them, despite the firm's blandishments about what earnings would be after excluding the charge. After all, if a firm dug itself into a deep enough hole that it needs quarter after quarter of charges to make things right, those charges are a normal cost of improving the business.
11. Excessive use of operating leases by lessees.
- While there are legitimate reasons for leasing and this does not violate accounting standards, some companies structure equipment acquisitions in the form of operating leases to archieve desirable financial ratios (low debt ratios, higher return on assets). If a company is using these to a greater extend than peers, this is a potential warning sign.
12. Gross margins or operating margins out of line with peer companies.
- While indicative of good management and cost control, it can also indicate accounting methods are being selected to improve financials relative to peers.
13. Use of long useful lives for depreciation and amortization
- One item that can be altered is a firm's depreciation expense. If a firm is assuming that an asset-such as a building or factory-will wear out in 10 years, it subtracts (or depreciates) one-tenth of the building's value from its earnings each year. As you can imagine, the longer the depreciation period, the smaller the annual hit to earnings. Therefore, if a firm suddenly decides that an asset has a longer useful life and stretches out the depreciation period, it's essentially pushing costs out into the future and inflating current earnings.
14. Equity method of accounting
- An accounting technique used by firms to assess the profits earned by their investments in other companies. The firm reports the income earned on the investment on its income statement and the reported value is based on the firm's share of the company assets. The reported profit is proportional to the size of the equity investment. This is the standard technique used when one company has significant influence over another.
15. Special purpose entities
- A special purpose entity (SPE; or, in Europe and India, special purpose vehicle/SPV, or, in some cases in each EU jurisdiction – FVC financial vehicle corporation) is a legal entity (usually a limited company of some type or, sometimes, a limited partnership) created to fulfill narrow, specific or temporary objectives. SPEs are typically used by companies to isolate the firm from financial risk. They are also commonly used to hide debt (inflating profits), hide ownership, and obscure relationships between different entities which are in fact related to each other (see Enron).
16. Off balance sheet financing/guarantees
- A form of financing in which large capital expenditures are kept off of a company's balance sheet through various classification methods. Companies will often use off-balance-sheet financing to keep their debt to equity (D/E) and leverage ratios low, especially if the inclusion of a large expenditure would break negative debt covenants.
17. Related party transactions
- A business deal or arrangement between two parties who are joined by a special relationship prior to the deal. For example, a business transaction between a major shareholder and the corporation, such as a contract for the shareholder's company to perform renovations to the corporation's offices, would be deemed a related-party transaction.
18. Make numerous acquisitions
19. The CFO leaves the company when there are suspicion for accounting issues
- If you see a CFO leave a company that's already under suspicion for accounting issues, you should think very hard about whether there might be more going on than meets the eye. The same applies to corporate auditors. If a company changes auditors frequently or fires its auditors after some potentially damaging accounting issue has come to light, watch out. This one may not be a big deal by itsel, but it's definitely something to watch with firms that have already displayed other warning signs.
20. The company frequently changes or fires its auditors after some potentially damaging accounting issue has come to light

你们认为还有什么指标或事件可以加到这个清单吗?

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x 238
发表于 2014-1-30 09:33 | 显示全部楼层
Morning lcchong,

May I know if you did all the data entry in your excel sheet by your self?

You are really amazing and the data is very useful to me.

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-30 12:07 | 显示全部楼层
回复 182# 飞向蓝天


    Yes, 95% copy and paste, 5% key in....

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x 117
发表于 2014-1-30 18:39 | 显示全部楼层
祝大大 马年快乐 恭喜发财

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-1-30 18:50 | 显示全部楼层
回复 184# 洪易


    新年快乐, 身体健康, 万事如意, 财源广进

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-2 09:34 | 显示全部楼层
我搜集了一些财务可能造假或危机的指标:

1. Growth in revenues out of sync with economy, industry or ...
lcchong76 发表于 2014-1-30 09:12



    最新的list在这里: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... e-financial-fakery/

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x 1
发表于 2014-2-2 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
LC, 新年快乐,恭喜发财,身体健康

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-2 23:00 | 显示全部楼层
回复 187# ctyap


    也祝你心想事成, 万事如意, 财源广进

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-2 23:03 | 显示全部楼层
BURSA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... nalysis-2-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Values:
  – EY%: 9.52 – 11.68
  – Absolute PE: 7.18 – 9.81
- As of now, I will take 9.5 – 9.8 as the range of fair value of BURSA.
- In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
  – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
  – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
- I will not accumulate BURSA at this moment, but will monitor it closely.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 Jan 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/mar ... nouncements/1529017

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-4 00:11 | 显示全部楼层
WELLCAL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/201 ... nalysis-3-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF: 3.76 – 4.28
  – EY%: 2.69 – 3.39
  – Absolute PE: 3.97 – 5.02 (over optimistic_
- I think the range of fair value will be 3.3 – 4.2.
- Even if WELLCAL dropped from 4.0 to 3.3, WELLCAL is now fully valued.
- I may buy WELLCAL if it drops below 3.0.

Latest Financial – FY2013 Financial Report (30 Jan 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/mar ... nouncements/1530173

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

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x 9
发表于 2014-2-4 11:09 | 显示全部楼层
WELLCAL Analysis:-



My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF: 3.76 – 4.28
  – EY%: 2.69 – ...
lcchong76 发表于 2014-2-4 00:11



    Lcchong老大,我想问一问你是怎么样benchmark ROIC和FCF/IC的呢?比如FCF/IC>10%你认为合格吗?

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x 1
发表于 2014-2-4 12:45 | 显示全部楼层
回复  飞向蓝天


    Yes, 95% copy and paste, 5% key in....
lcchong76 发表于 2014-1-30 12:07



    How to 95% copy and paste? Your own software?

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x 2869
发表于 2014-2-4 12:48 | 显示全部楼层
好多好料,有空再来爬楼,谢谢lcchong76兄的分享。。
祝你新年快乐,万事如意。

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-5 10:23 | 显示全部楼层
回复 191# furnas814


    Malaysia的risk premium (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=914160)和risk free rate (http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield)的总数是在10-12%左右. 这也可以当成Discount Rate.

我认为, 如果一盘生意每年没有超高10-12%的yield, 那么这个生意不搞也算了. 所以我就以15%做为ROE, ROIC和CROIC的benchmark.

我也有参考其他的研究报告或书本上的一些benchmark.

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-5 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
回复 192# ctyap


    Copy and paste means Ctrl C and Ctrl V......

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-5 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
回复 193# 糊涂


    大家一样好!

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x 9
发表于 2014-2-5 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
回复  furnas814


    Malaysia的risk premium ()和risk free rate ()的总数是在10-12%左右. 这也可以 ...
lcchong76 发表于 2014-2-5 10:23



    谢谢!

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-5 14:24 | 显示全部楼层

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x 1
发表于 2014-2-6 09:10 | 显示全部楼层
回复 195# lcchong76


    怎样从年报里一下子 copy 然后 paste 在你的 excel file 里 ? 因为 format 都不同

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x 547
 楼主| 发表于 2014-2-6 09:32 | 显示全部楼层
回复 199# ctyap


    逐个逐个figure copy and paste lor

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