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楼主: invest_klse

简单投资: Net Working Capital 选股法。

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发表于 2009-8-17 20:50 | 显示全部楼层
60# tan81


陈总之前没有average down?

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发表于 2009-8-17 20:55 | 显示全部楼层
61# goodluck88

之前听你们讲,要Average Up 呀。。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-8-18 10:04 | 显示全部楼层
是唱好的,好像符合这楼的条件所以就让你知道,
井底蛙并没有去印证,有兴趣可以去看看,没有的话就让它去吧
井底蛙 发表于 2009-8-17 20:40



唱好的就好了。。。最近 UMS 起了好多,我一直在考虑要不要卖。希望那篇文章能帮一把,让我卖到一个好价钱。

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发表于 2009-8-18 10:12 | 显示全部楼层
唱好的就好了。。。最近 UMS 起了好多,我一直在考虑要不要卖。希望那篇文章能帮一把,让我卖到一个好价钱。
invest_klse 发表于 2009-8-18 10:04

原来早就买进了

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-8-18 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
64# 井底蛙

昨天 UMS 的成交量很高一下,不知道与那篇报道有关吗???

由于 triumpl 和 UMS 的性质有点类似,
既然我买到了 triumpl,应该会在短其内卖掉 UMS。

期望我能卖到高于 net-working-capital per share 的价钱,RM1.40。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-8-20 22:58 | 显示全部楼层

Triumphal Associates Bhd

这个星期,Triumpl 加入了我的 net-working-capital 投资组合中。

根据其最新季报,Triumpl 的 net-working-capital 高达每股 RM1.50 左右。而我的买入价只有 75 sen —— 整整低了 50%。

Triumpl 的其它优点:
  • 近乎零的债务。
  • 连续 10 年以上的派息记录。(虽然,息率蛮低的)
  • 蛮低的 PE ratio。 (三年平均值约为 5)
  • 每股现金有 34 sen。 (相当于我买价的 45% )

去年当我买入 UMS 以前,就已经有注意到 Triumpl 了。两家公司的情况非常相似。经过一番比较后我,当时我决定先买入 UMS。(详情请看: 《UMS Holdings Bhd》 )。

而最近 UMS 股价起了很多,我正想把它卖掉。恰好 Triumpl 的股价下跌了,因此就起了以 Triumpl 来取代 UMS 的念头。现在 Triumpl 先买到了,接下来就是要卖出 UMS 了。

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发表于 2009-8-22 21:53 | 显示全部楼层
71# ShynanGoh

这个正常的。
Triumphal 正在处于转型。
许多Stock,都是邮寄到浙江的新厂。
估计它的业绩会在经济回弹后,才会爆。

新厂应该在今年完全投入生产。

这间公司最糟糕的,就是领导的父子领取过分的薪水。

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发表于 2009-8-24 13:46 | 显示全部楼层
invest_klse兄,你的分享真是让人获益良多
想请问你的net working capital选股法,有没有注重公司的业务?

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发表于 2009-8-27 19:57 | 显示全部楼层
Tomei is up 30% today and has exceeded its net working capital. Congratulations on the gain mate. The market just proved me wrong, high inventories shouldnt be a reason for not owning a value stock afterall. hey, your value investing method certainly works heh but many do not recognise that... i am looking forward to more variations in your value investing strategy one day (hopefully), especially on the DCF valuation technique which I found not many value investors use it..

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发表于 2009-8-27 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
Net working capital method and DCF method are two different things. The former focuses on present value while the latter converges on future value. DCF, unlike net working capital is highly subjective. Any single wrong inputs may cause a great deviation in valuation. If you dont believe it, just flip through the latest financial magazines or newspapers to check on how wrong analysts' target price could be at often times. Right now, I am using a simple DCF model with a discount rate of 11% and a terminal value of 15 to 20 years. My model is still in an experimental phase I believe. I have tested it with several simple and preditable businesses like BAT, NESTLE, PARKSON and even PETROCHINA back in 2002. From my model, BAT is currently undervalued or a 'bargain' to be precise at RM44, with a margin of safety of about 24% with a conservative projection of 9 to 15% growth rate. I might consider buying it when its price drops below RM42 which is unlikely to happen any sooner or later. Based on my model too, I evaluated the intrinsic value of PETROCHINA at $92b, which Buffet thought was worth about $100b. I think I am close to develop a sound DCF valuation technique but still, I believe this technique is flawed in certain ways and it is should not be the ONLY channel to value stocks. That is why I am giving 3 to 5 years for this technique whether it works or not in this environment and if it works, this method is going to be one of my stock selecting criterias.

Furthermore, I found out that most of the value stocks that I have met have market capitalizations lower or close to their annual revenues. I think this is one aspect worth to take note when looking for value stocks.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-8-31 17:34 | 显示全部楼层
...
想请问你的net working capital选股法,有没有注重公司的业务?
retnuoc 发表于 2009-8-24 13:46


我的方法,比较注重资产分析,对于业务没特别留意。
但是,我会避免把资金集中于相同行业的公司。



Net Working Capital~
Net Working Capital, is defined as Current Assets minus Current Liabilities.
ShynanGoh 发表于 2009-8-28 08:51

以上这个,是会计上给 net-working-capital 下的定义。
而我的投资法,是沿用 Graham 给的定义,也就是 net-working-capital = current asset - total liabilities。

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发表于 2009-9-2 09:51 | 显示全部楼层
20# invest_klse


其实..
您可考虑等待时机
买回您的股票 Advpkg、Lysaght、SJC 和 UMS ...
唯 Triumpl 觉得风险
ShynanGoh 发表于 2009-8-31 19:00


Yes, i think timing is important too especially in malaysian market. Value stocks need some degree of catalysts like surprise earnings, acquisitions, take overs, press release, change in management, new products etc before people will start realizing its value. No catalyst, No movement. That is why value stocks can remain a bargain for a long time eventhough their intrinsic value may increase.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-9-3 09:35 | 显示全部楼层
20# invest_klse


其实..
您可考虑等待时机
买回您的股票 Advpkg、Lysaght、SJC 和 UMS ...
唯 Triumpl 觉得风险
ShynanGoh 发表于 2009-8-31 19:00


如果它们股价跌回,我当然会买回。(如果组合中还有现金的话。。。)
UMS 我还没卖出呢。

之前已看中几家公司,可是 quote 了好久都 match 不上。Triumpl 只是其中 match 到的一家。
其实,我有分析过 triumpl 的 inventories,没什么好担心的。
还有,看 triumpl 的 balance sheet 要看 group,而不是 company。
它的 consolidated balance sheet 中, 是没有 minority interest 的。

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发表于 2009-9-3 22:34 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Invest_KLSE 兄,

其实很谢谢您的不吝分享交流....

您的投资组合...
如稍为增加下对....
现金 和 ROE 的关注.....
可能会更好...
ShynanGoh 发表于 2009-9-3 19:11


楼主的选股注重的是Net Working Capital 选股法,主题有写了。。。
cash & ROE可能在这个组合里面可能没有特别重要

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-9-11 19:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 2009-9-11 20:00 编辑

最近,一直在犹豫,要不要在目前这个价格卖掉 UMS。才突然醒觉到,我竟然没有给自己的这个 net-working-capital 投资法,定下一套完整的卖出策略。

正在自我检讨一中。。。。。期望可以拟出一个 quantitative framework,作为这个投资组合的卖股考指标。

为什么要有个 framework?
一来,是为了把个人情绪和主观因素的影响减低。
二来,是为了使投资策略更简单化。

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发表于 2009-10-9 00:23 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lawrencenga 于 2009-10-10 19:19 编辑

Hi everyone...

Very interesting discussions..i mean, both, net working capital method and DCF to value the intrinsic value of a company..very very interesting...

I learned about the graham method quite a while ago, only to put it into practice recently..because like many out there, does it work in Malaysia??

Frankly speaking, so far, so good...let me share some of my experience..

UMS, one of my first analysis...by the way, i started analysing KLSE shares in June, therefore missed the low in March..nevertheles...at that time, it was selling at RM 0.90, with net current aseet, ie, ( current asset - total liabilities) standing at RM 1.30 per share. Personally, this is the first step for me and its being really conserrvative buying company with such market value...the nest question, can it appreciate ?? looking at the profit, where the market seems to be most sensitive to, it stood at a relatively above average performance for this company, comparing to past years...anyway, that was some basic thought...i didnt go into detail as to the actual business, but there is saying which sounds like this '' A good investment does not mean investing in the best companies, nevertheless, is about paying a fraction of a dollar for each dollar u receive'' Graham once said, a bad company can be a great investment, if the price u pay is extremely low, reducing the risk to a minimal level. An an investor, the risk is, losing money, and that is the ultimate risk. No one on earth can tell for sure what works and what doesnt, and therefore, in order to benefit from the market in the long term, we should reduce the risk, ie, the price pay in relation to what u receive. By the way, UMS went to RM1.20, a wopping 20 % + return in 1 month..

Coming back to this principles, I like EuroSp, with it good dividend history, high cash, no debt position, and furthermore, owning prime lands in Penang. The only problem is liquidity, but then, it so safe and the chances of you losing the money is so low. But, one thing that you may lose, is time. As the liquidity is so low, then u need to give it some time. Still, why not giving it some time to get something with such low risk?/


Many others...n for all the ones that I have discovered, they mostly appreciated..in less than 2 months..So shall we give some credit to Graham? I think he deserve some. I am not saying that this method is therefore applicable in Malaysia, but it certainly has its strength, as u can have a cushion for bad times...

As for the intrinsic value approach, it may be a good approach for the future, especially with the disappearing of this net workin capital companies in the future, as I believe, reasonable company should be sold at it asset price, at least.. but the intrinsic value approach is a whole area of subjective studies.. and no one can really be precise..therefore, the margin of safety comes into play..my approach, which is going to be improved over time, is relatively simple..the intrinsic value of a business, is how much cash a company can generate in the future for shareholders, discounted into present form... So i tend to ask myself, can this business survive for the next ten years? If yes, how much can it generate in cash ( and the trick is to be as conservative as u can) . Certain good companies can easily generate cash for years, ie, in perpetuity, think of genting..certain company may not be able to survive forever, but at least, will generate good amount of cash for next 10 years..so with that calculation, u can compare it with the current market price and make your conclusion..genting malaysia could easily triple in value for the forseeable future, with this calculation..

Anyway, the intrinsic value is relatively subjective, and personally, it subjects to experience and wisdom more than knowledge and intelligence..and i think, there may be a reason y warren buffet started initially with the net working capital approach, then in his later years, improved and used the DCF method in calculating intrinsic value..if I am an fund manager, then no doubt, the intrinsic value will be a long term approach..nevertheless, I will definately exploit the net working capital approach as this is just too easy.. the problem is, you have to be a pig to win big, but to be a pig, u need courage..

Lastly, i wished I had the funds available to exploit the opportunities out there in KLSE and believe it or not, there are many of them...using the net working capital method, i identified many, and they did appreaciate.. examples, ajiya, UMS, Yahorng,  and so on...these are all reasonable companies..

So, I am thinking of getting few people with similar ideas to do something together, like warren buffet did..it may sound crazy, and stupid at the same time, but i think , its worth a try..y possess the knowledge, but don't utilise it..i may make mistake, but then, i believe in the long run, we will gain wisdom together, and therefore prosper in the long term..So hope to hear form anyone who is interested to make something happen..Hope i share some useful knowledge today..happy investing...

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-10-9 01:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 2009-10-12 12:13 编辑

88# lawrencenga

Hi Lawrence。

首先,谢谢你一口气给出了这么多家公司。。。
感觉很高兴,终于有个志同道合的人来一起寻宝了。

其中,UMS 和 Yahorng 我目前还持有着。 Ajiya 一直在我的观察名单中,让我犹豫没有买入的原因,主要是因为它含有的 minority interest,约占其总资产的 20%。 因此,我需要更低的价格来增加 margin of safety。

Harrisons 的 minority interest 太高。因此不曾把它纳入观察名单中

.........

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发表于 2009-10-10 06:27 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcs 于 2009-10-10 07:17 编辑

invest_klse,我开了一个hexza的主题,或许能符合你的选股法,请看看。
http://www.investalks.com/viewth ... &extra=page%3D1

没有minority interest。

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发表于 2009-10-10 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
Has anyone heard of Carl Icahn? He is another legend who mastered the value investing philosophy. Once he gains the controlling power over a company, you guess what this guy do. Sack the CEO, revamp the board of directors, enchance shareholder's value to the maximum. His work has been so successful that he could create a wave named the 'Icahn lift' over the market.  However, it is hard to emulate his achievement though. You need to be very rich and have a heart of steel to do that.

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发表于 2009-10-10 18:17 | 显示全部楼层
harrisons, i thought its a bit too high at the moment..anyway, the net current asset stands at RM2.30, and with hell lots of cash...that y the major shareholders wanted to take it private not long ago, wishing to pay less than RM1 for the share..impressive..they thought minority shareholders r just so stupid? anyway, its a missed opportunity for that 1..since the margin dropped quite a lot d..

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