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楼主: 强风

[公司专区] 0083 NOTION 诺申集团

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-28 23:25 | 显示全部楼层
今天osk 发出trading buy, target price是3.38
也许近期市场疲弱, notion也难逃一跌。。。看情形可以考虑加码。。。等出粮日吧!!

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-29 12:57 | 显示全部楼层
其实每个股升跌都有它的原理,只是我们散户很难可以发现,往往所接触的资讯比大户迟,只好从技术面/跟庄道理中学习来加强我们对股市的嗅觉,以免成为后知后觉的投资者/投机者。

这个负面消息有可能会打击NOTION的前景。


由于一项“反磁盘”(anti-discs)计划出现品质问题分析员认为诺申集团(Notion,0083,主板科技股)可能因此流失相关大客户,进而冲击公司的盈利表现。
侨丰投资研究分析员引述诺申集团管理层指出,反磁盘计划出现品质问题,仅和一个主要硬盘驱动器(HDD)客户相关。

据悉,问题出现后,管理层曾尝试解决问题和维持这计划,惟相关客户仍选择退出。

盈利或受冲击

分析员说:“据管理层,公司与这客户共有3项反磁盘计划,但只有一项计划有问题。这计划的贡献是大约700万令吉,占09财年营业额的大约4%。”

“其他两项计划仍持续进行,该公司也继续提供其他硬盘驱动器零件给这客户,如间隔器(spacer)和磁盘压块(disk clamps)。管理层称,诺申集团还是这客户的认可供应商。”

分析员指出,诺申集团在这事件中的主要风险是流失这大客户,而一旦这情况出现,该公司盈利将面对负面冲击,惟影响预计不会很大。

“这三项反磁盘计划对09财年营业额的贡献是大约2000万令吉或12%。

“若硬盘驱动器的净利赚幅是12%,这些计划对09财年净利的贡献则是大约7%。”

因此,他相信诺申集团的未来盈利大受冲击,也不预见该公司会因此流失与这客户的其他计划,因双方已合作多年。

他引述管理层指出,2010财年次季,该公司仍从这客户取得不小的销售额,而这季度的业绩预计在本月29日下午宣布。

所以,分析员维持诺申集团的盈利预测,并给予“短线买入”评级,目标价为3.38令吉。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-29 16:04 | 显示全部楼层
其实这几天的 Vol 突然升高且股价一直跌, 已经有种不好的预感....
请问Moon兄的 Article 是那里拿来的, google 很久都找不到....
这大客户是WD?

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x 52
发表于 2010-4-29 16:12 | 显示全部楼层
63# ASD
OSK的report,今天报纸也有登

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-29 16:35 | 显示全部楼层
lavender17 说得对,从南洋商报看到

ASD,你说没错,应该是WD。
在anti-dics,
主要WD的SUPPLIER 是
NOTION, JCY,CHEUNG WOH等等

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-29 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ASD 于 2010-4-29 17:19 编辑

65# Moon

这件事却实对 Notion 的名誉有所影响,分分钟 Alphana 快到手的contract 都被取消
Antidisc 是 Notion 刚从WD 争取到的新HDD parts 吗?

OSK 关于 Antidisc 的分析...
hydrocarbon contamination arising from the washing line caused by a defect in the filter

defect in filter,难道 Notion  没有QA team 来inspect the end product?

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x 52
发表于 2010-4-29 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
公司陷入危机,不是买便宜货的时候吗??也可以看出,公司应对危机的能力。
notion的盈利不止是全靠HDD,lenses part也有很大的贡献。
WD那里订单越来越多,我怀疑他们会不会在这个时候取消contract

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-29 17:09 | 显示全部楼层
ASD,

谢谢你。
有可能是短期事件,看来你需要问内行人才会清楚这件事。
其实每个生意都有它自己风险,看当事人如何去面对和处理。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-29 17:34 | 显示全部楼层
defect in filter,难道 Notion  没有QA team 来inspect the end product? 或许我不是很了解manufacturing line 的运作...

确实是买进的好时机,可希Notion 已经占我的portfolio 的一大部分,没多余的钱加马

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-29 17:40 | 显示全部楼层
67# lavender17

你是说取消Alphana 的contract
不会吧,他们将会买进 3rd factory 来应付Alphana 的contract... 应该不会有钱都不赚... 再说有了Alphana,可以减少对WD的依赖....

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x 50
 楼主| 发表于 2010-4-29 17:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 强风 于 2010-4-29 21:18 编辑

NOTION V-TEC 2010Q2 Report及announcement (free warrent and private placement) 迟点会把基本面更新。

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x 52
发表于 2010-4-29 18:51 | 显示全部楼层
Type       
:
        Announcement
Subject       
:
       
NOTION VTEC BERHAD (“NVB” or “Company”)
- Proposed Private Placement
- Proposed Free Warrants Issue
- Proposed Increase in the Authorised Share Capital

Contents       
:
       
On behalf of the Board of Directors of NVB, Hong Leong Investment Bank Berhad wishes to announce that the Company proposes to undertake the following:

(a) Proposed issue of new ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in NVB (“NVB Shares”) not exceeding 10% of the issued and paid-up share capital of the Company through a private placement exercise;

(b) Proposed issue of up to 34,003,503 free warrants in NVB (“Free Warrants”) on the basis of 1 Free Warrant for every 5 NVB Shares held by the shareholders of the Company; and

(c) Proposed increase in the authorised share capital of the Company from RM100,000,000 comprising 200,000,000 NVB Shares to RM500,000,000 comprising 1,000,000,000 NVB Shares

(collectively referred to as “Proposals”).

Please refer to the attached file for details of the Proposals.

This announcement is dated 29 April 2010.
geng爆

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-29 19:00 | 显示全部楼层
真的是 geng 爆
又来private placement, whose turn to take up now?
之前panic sell 的朋友一定吐血

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x 52
发表于 2010-4-29 19:07 | 显示全部楼层
free warrant+private placement
private placement的来头一定要够大,不然小股东会不爽,双刃剑

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-29 19:47 | 显示全部楼层
ISUUE OF WARRANT对股价会有什么影响?

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-29 20:03 | 显示全部楼层
我先来小结一下NOTION上半年的成绩单
IST HALF NET PROFIT RECORDED AS RM 23.387MIL (INCREASE 122.68%)
       
           3/31/2010        3/31/2009       
           RM '000                        RM '000       
Revenue           113,038         73,519             Increase 53%
Net Profit           26,387                         11,850             Increase 122%
Net Margin  23%                        16%       
EPS           18.04                        8.42       
NTA           1.45                        1.16

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-29 20:58 | 显示全部楼层
除了CIMB, MAYBANK & INTER-PAC也叫买

Maybank IB upbeat on Notion’s growing aspirations
Notion VTEC Bhd
(April 15, RM3.35)
Maintain buy at RM3.29 with target price of RM4.20: We stay buyers of Notion VTEC. Notion’s FY10 to FY12 earnings will be explosive should it successfully capitalise on higher 2.5” HDD component orders from Samsung and Alphana.

Our projected three-year sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% could jump to 61% if these prospects materialise. Valuations are low at single-digit forward price-earnings ratios (PERs) for a growth stock with high scalability prospects and an improving track record. Our target price pegs the stock to five times EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) for FY11.

Samsung and Alphana Tech have indicated interest to double Notion’s 2.5” HDD base plate, motor hub and stator assembly monthly orders, from one million pieces per annum now to seven million by end-2012. Channel checks also suggest that Semco, Samsung’s sub-contractor has invited Notion to set up a manufacturing plant in Dongguan, China. We suspect Notion will also diversify its business beyond the HDD, camera and auto segments.

Should Samsung and Alphana’s HDD orders materialise, Notion is expected to lease, with the option to purchase, a third manufacturing factory adjacent to its current plant in Klang with a 150,000 sq ft space.

New orders from Samsung and Alphana could elevate Notion’s revenue by RM73 million to RM392 million per annum in FY10 to FY12 based on average selling price of US$1.60 to US$1.80, which implies an explosive three-year sales CAGR of 61%. We suspect plant expansion into Dongguan is unlikely as Notion’s main priority is getting the third plant in Klang running.

These positives have not been incorporated into our forecasts. 2QFY10 results are expected to be released by April 29. Net profit performance should reflect 1Q’s RM14 million, a positive considering that 2Q is seasonally the weakest. The strengthening of the ringgit has a negative effect on Notion. Sensitivity analysis suggests that every 5% variation in the US dollar would affect Notion’s net profit by RM2 million. — Maybank IB, April 15

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-29 20:59 | 显示全部楼层
Inter-Pac: Notion Vtec forging ahead

Notion Vtec Bhd
(April 20, RM3.34)
Maintain outperform at RM3.34 with target price of RM3.78: Notion Vtec, an integrated precision engineering specialist, supplies high precision components mainly to hard disk drive (HDD) and single-lens reflex (SLR) camera manufacturers.

Its main customers for HDD business are Western Digital and Nikon for the SLR camera business segment, each contributing about 30%-35% to its top line. It expects to register double-digit growth in 2010 and 2011 on the back of stronger demand for both their products.

The HDD outlook is expected to grow positively driven by: (1) increasing digital information flow which raises the need for digital storage; (2) rising consumer spending in electronic products and personal computers; and (3) a recovery in corporate IT spending.

According to Trendfocus, the estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global HDD is 8.5% between CY09 and CY12, and 17.9% for the 2.5” HDD for the same period.

Although the SLR camera business over the last two years outshined HDD business to become the major revenue contributor, Notion expects the HDD business to become its top revenue contributor for FY10 onwards mainly coming from the 2.5” base plate with stator and spindle motor production for Samsung.

The base plate with spindle motor hub production volume for Samsung is expected to increase from 250,000 pieces per month currently to two million pieces by 4QFY10 and subsequently to four million a month by FY12.

To meet the steep demand, Notion has rented a third factory in Klang and is expected to be commissioned by August. When fully operational, the factory will have the capacity of up to seven million pieces a month.

Besides Samsung, Notion is also in talks with Alphana. We expect HDD revenue to grow by 35% in FY10 and 57% in FY11 when the contribution from the base plate and spindle motor hub contribution kicks in.

According to Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA), CY10 shipments of digital SLR cameras with interchangeable lens should reach 11 million units or up 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). At the same time, the total shipment of interchangeable lens for SLR cameras will grow by 11.2% y-o-y or 17.9 million units in CY10.

Nikon, Notion’s largest camera customer, acquired a 8.98% stake in Notion via private placement. The private placement raised about RM33.8 million and will be used to set up its Thailand plant in Ayuthaya and also for working capital.

Notion is unable to pass down any increase in raw material cost to its customer. Hence, for better cost control, it does most of the tooling in-house. To further increase cost efficiency, it plans to purchase the balance 60% of the nickel plating company, which they currently own 40%.

Underpinned by its aggressive expansion, we project Notion capex will be RM100 million in FY10 and RM75 million in FY11. Capex in FY10 will include (1) RM35 million Thailand factory; (2) RM10 million expansion in China; and (3) RM20 million for its third factory expansion.

We remain positive on Notion on the back of strong growth coming from both the HDD and SLR camera segments. Nevertheless, Notion is exposed to currency fluctuation as most of their HDD sales are carried out in the US dollar. The strengthening of the ringgit versus the US dollar will bite its bottom line slightly.

Our fair value of RM3.78 is based on FY11 earnings per share (EPS) of 36 sen and PER of 10.5 times. — Inter-Pacific Research, April 20

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-30 19:03 | 显示全部楼层
这星期的卖压好强,庄家离场?
free warrant 和 good qtr result 都无法带动股价...看来 Investor 不是很喜欢Private placement....

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-30 19:22 | 显示全部楼层
ASD,

很明显大部份的分析员不很看好这只股包括CIMB和OSK在内,有可能是目前的相机和工业领域所带来的营业额还出于WEAK,纯粹来自HDD方面所成长。
从基本面,虽然营业额和EPS算是过关,但是MARGIN正在下跌中。
从技术面,处于下跌局面,有可能下星期还会跌
其实如果公司没有善用Private placement所筹备的钱,将会冲淡EPS。

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