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[公司专区] 0083 NOTION 诺申集团

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发表于 2010-4-21 00:45 | 显示全部楼层
很高兴原来还有股友也在留意这一只股
贴上两个LINK给其他留意NOTION的股友参考
IT IS A COMPARISON BETWEEN JCY & NOTION.

http://www.wangtool.com/Post-1326-Notion+Vtec's+Prospects+Reassessed
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot. ... uy-notion-vtec.html

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-21 01:31 | 显示全部楼层
我也是Notion Vtec 的股东,平均价 2.65...
有没有发觉,Notion 的 Receivable/Revenue 蛮高一下,around 25%-30%. JCY 的差不多17-19%
可能是应为 camera division?

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-21 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
我也是Notion Vtec 的股东,平均价 2.65...
有没有发觉,Notion 的 Receivable/Revenue 蛮高一下,around 25%-30%. JCY 的差不多17-19%
可能是应为 camera division?
ASD 发表于 2010-4-21 01:31

请问what is the industry norm?

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-22 00:21 | 显示全部楼层
请问各位怎样把图表或者整理好的数据整齐的UPLOAD上来?
谢谢

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-22 03:00 | 显示全部楼层
请问what is the industry norm?
ckf 发表于 2010-4-21 21:39


查了几间 HDD manufacture,发觉他们的 receivable/Rev ratio 都瞒高一下....
dufu 20%-35%
ENG 24%-27%
只有 JCY 可维持在20%以下....

今天 JCY 起了7.47%,不知道会不会带动其他 HDD manufacturers

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-22 09:48 | 显示全部楼层
NOTION 算是成长股,最近三个Q的营业额和赢利不断成长。如果跟JCY比较,它属于小资本公司。

虽然论Pbt Margin, Profit Margin的 JCY远不如NOTION, 但是JCY 在ROE和CASH CONVERSION CYCLE却是佼佼者。

相信两者都是成长中。

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-22 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
查了几间 HDD manufacture,发觉他们的 receivable/Rev ratio 都瞒高一下....
dufu 20%-35%
ENG 24%-27%
只有 JCY 可维持在20%以下....

今天 JCY 起了7.47%,不知道会不会带动其他 HDD manufacturers
ASD 发表于 2010-4-22 03:00

谢谢ASD的分享

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-22 23:54 | 显示全部楼层
在TREASURY工作的朋友说马币美金汇率预期短期内可能下看3.20; 年尾则有回弹的可能 3。25; 2011 可上看3.30
还有一般上大公司会通过银行锁定部分收入的汇率, 比如说他的顾客就在年头把今年一半的美金收入锁定在3.30-3.35之间。 细节我不了解,主要是想让大家知道, 公司可以通过银行来保护盈利。。。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-23 04:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ASD 于 2010-4-23 04:44 编辑
NOTION 算是成长股,最近三个Q的营业额和赢利不断成长。如果跟JCY比较,它属于小资本公司。

虽然论Pbt Margin, Profit Margin的 JCY远不如NOTION, 但是JCY 在ROE和CASH CONVERSION CYCLE却是佼佼者。

相信两者 ...
Moon 发表于 2010-4-22 09:48


我选Notion 因为她的生产线比较diversify,50/50 in Camera and HDD components... 管理层也很积极的开拓新市场... 而且camera and HDD 可互相补助, camera manufacturing 剩下的scrap metal 可以用来做 HDD 的baseplate... cost saving...

JCY 刚刚 secure new contract frm Alphana Tech, Notion 和 Alphana 的contract 不知几时comfirm....

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-23 07:56 | 显示全部楼层
49# ASD

不否认,NOTION生意来自不同领域,至少面对的风险减少。
以目前价钱计算,
NOTION的本益比只是6。86
JCY的本益比大概是接近10。

当我深入了解时,发现JCY有一点TOPGLOVE的影子,NOTION却有一点点HARTA的影子。
在HDD领域的SUBCON,虽然JCY暂时还不算是老大,但它有很大升的空间。

缺点是
1)大家依赖少数客户,任何客户减少订单,会直接影响他们的生意。
2)科技变化非常快,未来可能电脑/手提电脑不需用到HARDDISK。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-23 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ASD 于 2010-4-23 17:22 编辑

Notion VTEC Bhd
(April 15, RM3.35)
Maintain buy at RM3.29 with target price of RM4.20: We stay buyers of Notion VTEC. Notion’s FY10 to FY12 earnings will be explosive should it successfully capitalise on higher 2.5” HDD component orders from Samsung and Alphana.

Our projected three-year sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% could jump to 61% if these prospects materialise. Valuations are low at single-digit forward price-earnings ratios (PERs) for a growth stock with high scalability prospects and an improving track record. Our target price pegs the stock to five times EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) for FY11.

Samsung and Alphana Tech have indicated interest to double Notion’s 2.5” HDD base plate, motor hub and stator assembly monthly orders, from one million pieces per annum now to seven million by end-2012. Channel checks also suggest that Semco, Samsung’s sub-contractor has invited Notion to set up a manufacturing plant in Dongguan, China. We suspect Notion will also diversify its business beyond the HDD, camera and auto segments.

Should Samsung and Alphana’s HDD orders materialise, Notion is expected to lease, with the option to purchase, a third manufacturing factory adjacent to its current plant in Klang with a 150,000 sq ft space.

New orders from Samsung and Alphana could elevate Notion’s revenue by RM73 million to RM392 million per annum in FY10 to FY12 based on average selling price of US$1.60 to US$1.80, which implies an explosive three-year sales CAGR of 61%. We suspect plant expansion into Dongguan is unlikely as Notion’s main priority is getting the third plant in Klang running.

These positives have not been incorporated into our forecasts. 2QFY10 results are expected to be released by April 29. Net profit performance should reflect 1Q’s RM14 million, a positive considering that 2Q is seasonally the weakest. The strengthening of the ringgit has a negative effect on Notion. Sensitivity analysis suggests that every 5% variation in the US dollar would affect Notion’s net profit by RM2 million. — Maybank IB, April 15


source
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... ng-aspirations.html

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-23 17:29 | 显示全部楼层
如果未来三年的 CAGR jump to 61%....

April 29 出财报,希望他的 currency hedge fund 做得好

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-23 19:21 | 显示全部楼层
跟去年比较,它的EPS至少要有两倍以上同时营业额也必须有一倍以上,才能引起大家的注意力,不然话失望。
那时,有可能带动所有HDD的SUBCON的股,甚至影响分析员的建议。
机会会很大。
正在期待中。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-23 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ASD 于 2010-4-24 19:41 编辑

这应该没问题,去年同季因为金融风暴.....业绩不是很理想,只取得28.2mil Rev and 4.5mil Net profit...
2Q通常是最弱的一季,只要能维持今年1Q 的 result 56.3mil Rev and 14mil Net profit 已经不错了....
Rev= 56.3/28.2 = 2 (1倍 )
Net Profit = 14/4.5 =3.11 (2倍)
我比较期待他跟 Alphana 的新contract.....

Corrected, 谢谢 Moon 的提点

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x 911
发表于 2010-4-23 21:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Moon 于 2010-4-23 21:39 编辑

Rev= 56.3/28.2 = 2 倍
Net Profit = 14/4.5 =3.11 倍

朋友,
Rev,这只是一倍而已,一倍是100%增加
NET PROFIT,这只是两倍而已,两倍是200%增加
这只是我的最保守估计。
由于今年原料涨价,多多少少会影响它的赢利。
同时最好可以比上个Q,有至少两位数成长。

不一定,第二Q是最弱,有时第三Q (2007年) 或第一Q才弱 (2006,2008年)。
要看世界各国对相机和电脑/手提电脑需求如何
主要原因去年1-3月是最坏的时刻,很多负面消息导致需求减少。

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-23 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
Rev= 56.3/28.2 = 2 倍
Net Profit = 14/4.5 =3.11 倍

朋友,
Rev,这只是一倍而已,一倍是100%增加
NET PROFIT,这只是两倍而已,两倍是200%增加
这只是我的最保守估计。
由于今年原料涨价,多多少少会影响 ...
Moon 发表于 2010-4-23 21:36


ohps.... stupid mistake... haha, paiseh....

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-26 21:48 | 显示全部楼层
上个星期五NOTION的卖压很强 最低价到了3.24
可惜没有子弹加股
怎么今天又回到3.35
NOTION的第二季度的业绩就要出炉了
如果第二极度的业绩也理想
我想要再买3.24的价钱应该不容易
还是赶快准备子弹

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x 69
发表于 2010-4-27 17:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ASD 于 2010-4-27 21:12 编辑

TA Analysis from Alex, Next trade

Notion- testing its acelerated uptrend line
Notion is testing its accelerated uptrend line (S1-S1) again. This is the second time the stock tested this uptrend line. The earlier test was on last Friday, April 23. At the close today, Notion lost 9 sen to end at RM3.26. A quick rebound is crucial over the next few days. Failure to stay above this uptrend line support of RM3.30 could send the stock to its horizontal support at RM3.00 & thereafter RM2.75-77.

Sources
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/20 ... erated-uptrend.html

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x 0
发表于 2010-4-28 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
KUALA LUMPUR: NOTION VTEC BHD []'s wholly-owned unit Notion Venture Sdn Bhd (NVSB) has entered into two agreements to buy 60% of nickel plating firm Autic Mekki Sdn Bhd for RM3.4 million.

In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia, Notion Vtec said the acquisition was a cost-effective measure to keep the value of the nickel plating process within the group and it was expected to yield returns in two years.

Under the agreements, NVSB will buy a total of 1.2 million ordinary shares at RM1 each, representing 60% of the issued and paid-up share capital of Autic Mekki from Gan Siew Lay and Tay Lang Cheng. Autic Mekki will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Notion Vtec upon the completion of the purchase.

Notion Vtec reveals that its managing director Choo Wing Hong and executive director Choo Wing Onn are also the directors of Autic Mekki.

The board, save for Wing Onn and Wing Hong, is of the opinion that the proposed acquisition is in the best interests of Notion Vtec.

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发表于 2010-4-28 20:20 | 显示全部楼层
今天的股价持续下跌
只可惜现在弹尽粮穷

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