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x 18
发表于 2012-10-6 00:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 printmy 于 2012-10-6 00:36 编辑

經濟不景氣除了帶給科技業不少的衝擊外,也帶給不少傳統產業壓力,其中受影響最大的莫過於航運業!

經濟衰退重創全球船運,為船運商帶來前所未見的危機,財力雄厚的業者將趁機搶占市場,弱者可能難以熬過寒冬。

全球衰退重創船運業,需求銳減導致運費慘跌,但割喉式的價格競爭無濟於事,世界各地的港口仍停滿空船,許多船務業者面臨破產威脅。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-10-6 00:35 | 显示全部楼层
全球需求放緩‧干散貨船運業挑戰多
行業走勢  2012-10-05 19:02


(吉隆坡5日訊)市場預期干散貨船運業領域明年的船隻供應增長7.4%,超越市場需求,使該行業領域明年前景仍深具挑戰,前路依然陰霾迷漫,直至2014年才有希望開始扭轉劣勢。

聯昌研究指出,對整體干散貨船運業持“中和"評級,主要是干散貨船運股項已反映它們實際價值,以及預料該行運輸收費率在2014年之前將不會复甦。

該行指出,預料2013年的船運收費率及船只價格將繼續下跌,直至2013年杪至2014年初時,才有希望出現輕微复甦。

“全球特別是中國經濟成長放緩,原料如礦鐵石及煤碳的需求步伐較低,不過整體而言仍屬強勁。預料2012年散裝貿易仍可成長3.8%,較該行預測的3.9%略低。"
該行指出,2013年至2014年,該行業成長介於4.2至4.3%間,主要受到穀類貿易反彈,及中國推出1千500億美元的刺激措施,推動礦鐵石及煤碳需求成長的支撐。
今年首8個月,干散貨運船隻增加了5千200萬的淨重吨數,比去年杪增長8.5%。而船隻訂單則下跌23%,預料2012年的船隻平均增長12.9%,2013年增長7.4%,以及2014年則增長2.9%。

個股方面,該行給予大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組)“中和"評級,合理目標價為1令吉53仙。目前該公司持有現金2億5千萬令吉,使它有能力在市況低迷時收購便宜資產。(星洲日報/財經)

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发表于 2012-10-6 07:42 | 显示全部楼层
全球需求放緩‧干散貨船運業挑戰多
行業走勢  2012-10-05 19:02


(吉隆坡5日訊)市場預期干散貨 ...
printmy 发表于 2012-10-6 00:35



    http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... ;extra=&page=18 355楼
航运公司根本不用考虑 大多数都亏损状态

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发表于 2012-10-6 08:34 | 显示全部楼层
那...应该关注那一种公司?

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发表于 2012-10-6 09:42 | 显示全部楼层
MISC在船运亏得脸青青,老早就将它旗下的船运业务卖了,还要吞下个RM14亿的Impairment Loss

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发表于 2012-10-6 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
回复 5# kinwing


    MISC开始有钱赚了。

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发表于 2012-10-6 23:13 | 显示全部楼层
还是专注银行股和消费股好了

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发表于 2012-10-7 00:45 | 显示全部楼层
maybulk 也是低迷很多年了 ....
有什麽扭轉乾坤的爆炸點嗎?

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发表于 2012-10-7 10:10 | 显示全部楼层
航运豈不是夕阳行業有投资价值吗?

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x 163
发表于 2012-10-7 19:56 | 显示全部楼层
为什么码头的生意还是那么好呢?eg,NCB,Suria....

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发表于 2012-10-10 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
Investors advised to look only at strongest of names in shipping

PETALING JAYA: As the oversupply of vessels plaguing the shipping industry will most likely to spill over into next year clouding any silver lining for the sector going forward, interested investors are recommended to look only at the strongest of names in the volatile environment.

CIMB Research predicted that the shipping sector in 2013 to remain tough as oversupply continues to grow albeit at slower pace than this year.

“Unless global demand growth miraculously accelerates, we recommend investors to look only at the strongest of names in the sector.

“Excess supply growth next year suggests that upside will be capped. Container rates fell, with declines of between 1.2% and 4.5% last week on US and European routes, signalling the urgency of more winter capacity cuts,” it said in a note to clients on the regional shipping industry commenting on the sharp spike of about 40% for capesize rates last week.

The research house maintained a “neutral” call on the sector as valuations had corrected, with Orient Overseas (International) Ltd (OOIL) and SITC International Holdings Co Ltd as its top picks.

CIMB said OOIL had one of the lowest gearing levels among long-haul carriers and did not swing between profits and losses as frequently as its peers. It added that the carrier exercised cargo selection to maximise yields.

Meanwhile, it said SITC benefited from the relative rate stability of its intra-Asia exposure, and should benefit from structural cost reductions when it took delivery of its newbuildings in the second half of this year.

CIMB Research said the capesize market started off the fourth quarter on a strong note, with rates surging 40% week-on-week to hit above US$11,000 per day for the first time since early January, due to iron ore restocking by Chinese steel mills from Oct 4 onwards when they returned from their holidays late last week.

(Capesize vessels are the biggest class of ships in the drybulk segment with usual capacity of around 175,000 deadweight tonnes),

“Unfortunately, supramax rates declined 4.2% week-on-week and handysize rates fell 5.2% week-on-week, reflective of a broad slowdown in commodity demand outside of the iron ore complex.

“Panamax rates also seemed to have bottomed, according to Fearnleys, with rates staging a huge recovery – jumping 41% week-on-week. Alas, supramax rates declined 4.2% week-on-week and handysize rates were down 5.2% week-on-week,” it said.

Generally, CIMB Research said there was an oversupply of ships in the Atlantic, with hardly any fresh cargoes coming through and over to the Pacific, the market remained relatively quiet with holidays in China and limited iron ore exports out of India.

The Baltic Dry Index, the barometre of dry bulk shipping rates, as of Oct 8 climbed to 883 points from 663 points on Sept 13. This year close record low was at 647 points on Feb 3.

For container shipping, CIMB Research said the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was closed last week for China’s National Day holiday, but based on Drewry’s World Container Index, rates continued to weaken on the main headhaul east-west trades up to Oct 4.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 94&sec=business

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发表于 2012-12-24 09:21 | 显示全部楼层
Container shipping lines to face earnings pressure

EUROPEAN container-shipping operators such as AP Moeller-Maersk A/S may benefit little from higher volumes next year as carrier lines battle to remain profitable amid overcapacity and weak demand.

Global lines will ship the equivalent of 168 million 20ft containers, an increase of 6.6 per cent from 2012, according to London-based shipping-services company Clarkson plc. Traffic on mainline Asia-Europe routes will lag global growth, rising four per cent to 21 million 20ft boxes as low European consumer demand limits orders.

Economic weakness caused by the debt crisis in Europe, which accounts for more than a third of global trade, is putting pressure on earnings at shipping lines such as Copenhagen-based Maersk Line, the world's largest, and CMA CGM SA. Further clouding the outlook, industry capacity will grow 7.5 per cent next year, Clarkson says, undermining efforts to boost profit on Asia-Europe routes as earlier rate rises struggle to take hold.

"Unless Europe has an unexpected recovery, growth volumes from Asia to Europe are likely to be low," said Lars Jensen, chief executive officer of Copenhagen-based SeaIntel Maritime Analysis. "Consequently we expect the structural overcapacity to persist in 2013, leading to rapid cycles of price increases and price declines as carriers intermittently idle and re-activate tonnage."

World freight traffic growth probably slowed to 4.8 per cent this year from 7.1 per cent in 2011, according to Clarkson. East Asia-Europe volumes will decline 3.3 per cent as European consumers struggle with fiscal austerity and economic uncertainty caused by the sovereign debt crisis.

The economy of the 17-nation euro area shrank 0.1 per cent in the third quarter as the region slipped into recession for the second time in four years.

A gauge of services and manufacturing output in the euro area was at 47.3 in December, staying below the 50 mark that indicates contraction for an 11th month, London-based Markit Economics said on last Thursday. The European Central Bank forecasts the economy will shrink 0.5 per cent this year and 0.3 per cent in 2013.

The weakness of Europe's economy and its debt turmoil is also affecting the rest of the world, curbing global trade growth to 2.5 per cent this year from five per cent in 2011, according to the World Trade Organisation's September forecast.

Global merchandise trade volume rose 2.7 per cent in the first three quarters of 2012 from a year earlier, according to the Geneva-based WTO.

By comparison, European Union exports were unchanged and imports posted a 2.7 per cent drop during the same period.

Next year, global trade will expand 4.5 per cent, the WTO forecast in September.

World container growth in 2013 will be driven by trade on secondary routes, such as between northern and southern hemispheres and within Asia, as well as by Middle East and Indian volumes, according to Clarkson.

"Shorter trade routes, more suited for smaller vessels, will become increasingly important as the growth of emerging-market demand for goods continues to outpace developed markets," said Brandon Oglenski, an analyst at Barclays plc in New York.

"We believe supply fundamentals may improve over the next 12-18 months as container scrapping has picked up and the delivery schedule is set to run off to more manageable levels."

Maersk estimates "single-digit growth" in global container volumes in 2013, which "includes the possibility for marginal positive growth in Europe", spokesman Hursh Joshi said in an e-mail response to questions. "Maersk is absolutely committed to maintaining capacity discipline" and "Maersk Line does not plan to offer any new capacity" on routes between Asia and Europe in 2013, Joshi said. Bloomberg

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... les/panker/Article/

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发表于 2012-12-24 09:32 | 显示全部楼层
「貨櫃懸崖」︰美國東部面臨罷工危機 15個港口恐癱瘓2012/12/24  
美國財政懸崖未解,東、西兩岸又面臨「貨櫃懸崖」。東岸船運公司與碼頭工人工資談判破局,若未能在本月底合約到期前達成協議,約1萬5000名碼頭工人準備進行35年來首見的罷工,導致美東15個港口癱瘓。而在西岸的西雅圖港近3000名碼頭工人也有可能拒絕貨運公司的合同,爆發勞資糾紛。業界警告這將打斷供應鏈、重創經濟,零售業、航運業和制造業首當其沖。

  在東岸,國際碼頭工人協會(ILA)和代表資方的美國海運聯盟(USMX)若未能在本月29日的最後期限前達成協議,美國將墜落「貨櫃懸崖」。高力國際公司(Colliers)總經理康威說,罷工會重創經濟,若罷工持續到明年1月中旬之後,沖擊會更大。

  上周資方堅持對貨櫃使用費(即按貨物重量支付給碼頭工人的費用)設上限後,勞資談判破局,何時重啟談判仍在未定之天。若無法打破僵局,30日可能有1萬4650名工人罷工,包括紐約和新澤西港的4000人,為1977年來美東首見。

  紐約-新澤西港是全美處理中國制品的第二大港,也是美東第一大港。替代海運科技公司(Alternative Marine)總裁昆克爾說,美東、尤其是紐約港主要處理來自歐洲和南美的貨物。紐約和新澤西港處理約10%的中國進口品、69%的以色列進口和37%的義大利進口,且以家具、塑膠制品、服飾、飲料和化學品為主。去年紐約-新澤西港處理2080億美元的貨物,金額高于東岸其他港口。

  航運業正密切關注談判進度。西斯班公司(Seaspan)執行長王友貴說︰「罷工對商業非常不利,將沖擊航運業和零售與批發業。屆時必須把貨物轉運至東岸其他港口,甚至運往西岸後再轉搭火車。」

  紐約-新澤西港每年約處理320萬個標準貨櫃(TEU)和70萬輛汽車,今年美國進口約200萬輛車中有40%從東岸輸入。沃爾瑪、目標(Target)、百思買等零售商可能面臨產品延後到貨的沖擊。

  在西岸,西雅圖等四個港口近3000名碼頭工人,21日已開始就糧食貨運商提出的新勞工合同草案投票,由于擔心工人可能拒絕這一合同,資方已著手準備預案,以便一旦工人罷工,能找其他工人暫時取代他們的工作。這四個港口包括俄勒岡州的波特蘭港、華盛頓州的西雅圖、泰可瑪和溫哥華港。

  代表這些工人的國際沿岸與倉儲工會(ILWU),投票已于22日結束。他們將于24日宣布投票結果。這些工人自9月30日以來,便在沒有合約保障下工作。

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发表于 2012-12-24 09:34 | 显示全部楼层
美東再傳罷工 航運股揚帆
2012.12.22

隨著市場傳出美國東岸碼頭工人醞釀將再度罷工,貨櫃輪市場運價再傳漲聲,而1月15日運價將再調漲另一波,其中西岸大櫃將再調漲600美元,東岸也將再調漲800美元,國內的長榮(2603)、陽明(2609)將會跟進調漲,有助於第一季營收、獲利的表現。

貨櫃輪業者指出,之前美西碼頭工人罷工8天,已經讓船舶停靠情況亂掉,當時市場已開始加收碼頭壅擠附加費,而且受惠於業界已經賠怕了,泛太平洋運價穩定協議組織(TSA)在12月15日傳出北美西岸大櫃調漲400美元,東岸調漲600美元,業界也考量市況,在第四季淡季及明年第一季陸續都有減班的計畫,安排船舶進場保養、維修。

貨攬業者指出,由於近日又傳出美東碼頭工人計畫在聖誕及新年假期後再度罷工,由於不少貨主擔心出貨會受到影響,近期已開始安排船期,市場也開始加收碼頭壅擠附加費,界預計於1月15日再調漲美國線的運價,其中西岸大櫃將再調漲600美元,東岸也將再調漲800美元。

此外,亞洲線的市況一直是很平穩,受惠於東協市場的興起,近期各大航商都強化亞洲線的布局情況,從明年1月起,貨櫃龍頭Maersk Line(馬士基航運)將針對亞洲各主要港口出口至中美洲波多黎各的貨櫃實施漲價,而國內的長榮、陽明及萬海(2615)也都會跟進。

法人認為,雖然就目前歐洲線的市況還是不好,但是美國線的運價持續回升,亞洲線的運量也有不錯表現,而且美國線、亞洲線的運價都是出現價量擠揚,如果運價能順利漲足,推估明年三家貨櫃輪的業者營收、獲利應可望有不錯的表現。長榮、陽明及萬海今股價均抗跌,甚至小有表現。

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发表于 2014-3-17 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
HSBC aims to capture share of Malaysia’s exports recovery

KUALA LUMPUR: HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd is eyeing to capture a share of the country’s recovery in exports, which is expected to be robust over the next two years, said its managing director of commercial banking, Andy Grisdale.

According to HSBC’s global trade connections report in February last year, Malaysia’s exports are forecast to see a robust 8% increase per year between 2013 and 2015.

The report also showed that Malaysia’s exports to India, Indonesia and Vietnam will increase by 17%, 14%, and 13% per year respectively in the same period.

“I think there is a general sentiment of increased confidence in the [Malaysian] market. You’re looking at an 8% exports growth, and a 5.2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth [this year],” Grisdale told The Edge Financial Daily in an interview.

Malaysia’s exports started to pick up pace since July last year, as it expanded 8.9% in the second half. However, full year growth stood at 2.4% to RM719.8 billion.

Grisdale said Malaysia’s trade expanded 4.6% last year, boosted by a better export performance compared with Asean’s 4.8% growth.

“This was underpinned by strong uptake of Asean countries, improved demand from the European Union members, and growth in export manufacturing,” he added.

The Statistics Department showed that Malaysia’s exports value rose 12.2% to RM64 billion in January 2014 from a year ago, as the export volume index increased 2.5%. Exports growth was led by a 23% increase in machinery and transport equipment, an 8% increase in mineral fuels, and a 6.7% increase in manufactured goods.

Similarly, imports also rose 7.2% to RM57.62 billion in January 2014, as import volume index increased 3.5%.

Grisdale noted that about half of HSBC Malaysia Commercial Banking’s loan exposure is trade-focused. On the group front, commercial banking accounts for about a third of HSBC Malaysia’s pre-tax profit.

Grisdale also said despite the government’s tightening of its fiscal policy, HSBC Malaysia Commercial Banking has not seen a slowdown in infrastructure spending and commercial loan growth.

“(As such,) we are looking to have some really strong growth in trade perspective this year,” he added.

HSBC Holdings plc group managing director and chief executive of global commercial banking, Simon Cooper, said trade aside, oil and gas, infrastructure, and commodities remain critical to Malaysia’s growth.

Meanwhile, Cooper noted that there are signs of optimism in the global market, with major developed markets starting to see growth returning.

This is despite world trade growth predicted by the World Trade Organisation to be slower this year at 4.5% from 5%, which is also below the average rate of 5.4% for the past 20 years.

Over the long term, Cooper remains confident that world trade will grow faster than GDP, with material expansion coming from intra-Asean flows.
A global trade forecast report by HSBC global connections dated October last year showed that world merchandise trade is forecast to grow 8% per year to 2030, outpacing GDP growth as barriers to trade are dismantled.

“This growth will be sustained by underlying fundamentals such as the increase in world population and development of emerging economies,” said Cooper.

Cooper commented that intra-Asean trade growth will have a fairly strong pick-up due to the industrialisation growth the countries are going through.

Last year, the HSBC Global Trade and Receivables Finance (GTRF) product group within global commercial banking, which offers trade solutions, grew 22%. It is eyeing a higher growth this year.

“Malaysia is one of GTRF’s top 20 priority markets, and as such, is a key part of our growth strategy,” said Cooper.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... ports-recovery.html

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发表于 2014-3-17 13:06 | 显示全部楼层
泰国和中国建造运河的事又有眉目,届时新加坡港口必死,西马的港口也是,东马的港口 export 原产品,影响较小。

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