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[公司专区] 3786 MAS 馬航

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发表于 2011-4-21 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
MAS joining the big league

Malaysian Airline System Bhd
(April 20, RM1.81)
Downgrade to sell at RM1.18 with revised target price RM1.60 (from RM1.76): MAS took investors and sell-side analysts on a one-hour joyride on its newly delivered, latest generation A330-300. The aircraft’s cabin, equipped with the best in-flight entertainment and seat comfort, is a sight to behold.

This may be the game changer for MAS as it will put the national carrier on par with the likes of Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Cathay Pacific. With the latest generation A330s joining its ageing fleet, MAS will be on par with the leading full-service carriers in terms of passenger comfort and cabin ambiance, which it lacked previously despite having one of the world’s best ratings for cabin crew hospitality.

Overall, the enhancement in customer experience from the new aircraft looks set to lure passengers loyal to other carriers to give MAS a try, notably business travellers. The new A330s will be deployed to serve the Middle East, Australia, China and India routes.

MAS will take delivery of five A330-300s this year and 10 more up to 2015. The airline also has the option of taking up an additional 10 A330- 300s.

With another four 737-800s, including the five A330-300s, to be delivered this year (either as replacement or as new additions), this would be MAS’ key earnings kicker for a turnaround as the new aircraft offer far superior fuel burn (on better aerodynamics and engineering enhancements coupled with the higher number of seats and tonnage load), lower maintenance costs and more reliability and flying hours compared with its old aircraft.

Our assumption is premised on a 6% available seat kilometre (ASK) growth. MAS aims to possess the youngest fleet among the world’s airlines by 2015. This will allow it to cut unit costs by 15% over the next few years, which we think is achievable, judging from the mileage recorded by AirAsia’s associates (up 3% to 6% y-o-y) after their fleet renewal.

For MAS, we see improvement in the quantum of savings given that the A330-300s are for long-haul flights, which effectively yield better mileage compared with short-haul routes as a significant amount of fuel is consumed during take-off.

We have lowered our FY11/12 earnings by 18% after including a higher jet fuel price assumption of US$124.5 (RM376) per barrel for FY11, which would effectively nudge up the effective jet fuel barrel price the airline consumes to US$115 per barrel from US$111 per barrel (given that it has hedged 25% of its FY11 fuel requirement at an average price of US$88 per barrel world trade index).

Our sensitivity analysis found that every US$1 increase in jet fuel price per barrel from our base case assumption (of US$115 per barrel) will nudge up earnings by 5.63% for MAS.

We expect MAS to be profitable this year and reiterate that the carrier is on track for a turnaround in FY13. However, we think that high oil prices will weigh on sentiment and dampen earnings for the time being. Following the lower earnings forecast we downgrade MAS to “sell” from “neutral”.

Our new fair value on MAS is RM1.60 (previously RM1.76), premised on 8.5 times earned value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, its average long-term historical valuation, and after taking off its FY11 net debt totalling RM1.8 billion (net gearing of 62%). — OSK Research, April 20

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... the-big-league.html

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发表于 2011-5-2 16:43 | 显示全部楼层
陸續接受飛機‧馬航2013年有望轉虧為盈
業績評論  2011-04-29 19:09

(吉隆坡29日訊)馬航(MAS, 3786, 主板貿服組)會在今年接收5架A330-300飛機,2012至2015財政年間則將另接收10架,僑豐研究認為這是該公司未來成長的轉捩點,以達至2013財政年轉虧為盈的目標。

同時,僑豐預見馬航今年將取得盈利,但受到高油價衝擊,下調2011及2012財政年財測18%,至2億3千140萬及2億8千440萬令吉淨利。

“財測下調主要考量2011財政年飛機燃油價每桶124.5美元預估,而飛機燃油每漲升1美元,將影響5.63%盈利表現。”

僑豐對該公司接收新飛機而感到“眼前一亮”,提供最佳的娛樂享受及舒適感,與全球知名航空公司如新航、國泰航空及阿聯酋航空看齊,相信乘客將願意嘗試馬航的服務。

“馬航今年接收的5架A330-300飛機,加上4架737-800飛機,將成為其盈利成長主要貢獻者,料每公里平均座位增長6%,除節省燃油,維修成本也更低,且可飛更久。”

新飛機將作用飛往中東、澳洲、中國及印度的航線。該公司擁有選擇權另接收10架A330-300飛機,並放眼到了2015年成為全球擁有最新穎飛機的航空公司,期望未來幾年減低15%成本。

僑豐認為馬航可達到成本撙節目標,因目前供長途航線的A330-300飛機的成本節約已有所改善,並捎來更好的回酬。

不過,受到高油價威脅並導致盈利走低,僑豐將該公司的評級從“中和”下調至“賣出”,目標價訂在1令吉60仙。

星洲日報/財經‧2011.04.29
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/46684

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发表于 2011-5-3 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
AirAsia soars to RM3, MAS struggles

As for MAS, analysts were impressed by the national carrier’s younger fleet plant which was anticipated to be MAS’ key earnings kicker for a turnaround on better fuel burn, lower maintenance costs, and more reliability and flying hours.

However, they were concerned about the impact of the high oil prices.

A local research house said its higher revised oil price assumption prompted it to downgrade its earnings by 18% for FY11-FY12, which accordingly entailed a downgrade to SELL at a lower fair value of RM1.60, premised on 8.5 times enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... -mas-struggles.html

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发表于 2011-5-4 08:32 | 显示全部楼层
Hi, i think MAS already at the historical low...........
watch this stock closely and waiting for strong rebounds

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x 126
发表于 2011-5-4 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
slow slow wait,
target price 1.25

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x 37
发表于 2011-5-6 12:21 | 显示全部楼层
hi sky 1510

can teach me why it can go lower to RM1.25.  Just sharing your point of views..... I think you see somethings which i not see......

Not the market (KLSE) is not good, so  can not make mistake....

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发表于 2011-5-18 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
马航廉航机场 服务台今起服务
2011/05/17 11:00:58 AM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡16日讯)马航在吉隆坡廉航终站(LCCT)的售票服务柜台,将在今日起服务,以满足顾客需求。

马航是首个在廉航终站设立销售柜台的全方位服务航空公司。

柜台的营业时间是从早上的7时30分至晚上11时,消费者可在柜台订购马航、马航飞翼(MASwings)及与马航共享编号的航空机票。

马航销售及分销业务组副主任阿都马力在文告中说,柜台提供的服务还包括补发机票、补发航旅游保险(MHinsure)、处理信用卡退款程序等。

他说,该公司接获不少顾客的要求,在廉航终站设立售票服务柜台,让顾客们可在廉航终站购买到马航的机票。

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发表于 2011-5-25 04:42 | 显示全部楼层
3因素不利 馬航首季料面對虧損

(吉隆坡23日訊)受油價首季上漲35%、中東北非政治局勢與日本地震事影響,市場人士相信馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)2011財政年首季將面對虧損。

燃油價格的高波動性,以及航空領域出現供應過剩的趨勢,馬銀行投行分析員關注該領域的前景。

根據鄰國同業新加坡航空(SIA)及泰國航空(Thai Airways)的表現,分析員預計,馬航收益率料按年增長。

截至目前,馬航的客座率按年上升1.2%至76.0%;而載貨率則按年下滑9.1%至68.5%。整體而言,馬航的總負載率按年下滑2.8%至73.3%。

此外,分析員預計,經過FRS139新會計條例的調整後,馬航首季的核心淨虧損將收窄至2億6330萬令吉,去年同期面對2億9380萬令吉的淨虧損。

分析員認為,中東北非政治局勢與日本天災或帶來總值1500萬令吉的損失。

但分析員相信,有關衝擊只是暫時性,估計航空流量成長可在下半年恢復正常。無論如何,由於航空公司在次季及第三季是接獲新機款訂單的旺季,分析員認為,未來3至5個月的供應過剩問題將加劇。

儘管如此,分析員仍認為馬航表現將較其他的區域同業佳,因為該公司擁有溫和的成長計劃,以及良好的燃油對沖機制。

整體而言,分析員對馬航次季及第三季前景持謹慎態度,並維持該股「守住」的評級,目標價格則從2.55令吉下修至1.80令吉。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... s0w00OS5xZO2h7853d8

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发表于 2011-5-25 21:30 | 显示全部楼层
High fuel costs push MAS into red, 1Q net loss of RM242m      
Wednesday, 25 May 2011 17:39  

KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS) posted net loss of RM242.34 million in the first quarter ended March 31, 2011 versus net profit of RM310.04 million a year ago due to higher operating expenses mainly due to the increase in fuel costs while other operating income declined.

The national carrier said on Wednesday, May 25 that revenue was RM3.19 billion compared with RM3.30 billion a year ago. Loss per share was 7.25 sen compared with earnings per share of 10.64 sen.

“The group recorded a loss after tax of RM241.7 million (quarter ended March 31, 2010: RM310.6 million profit) after including amongst others, derivative gain of RM64.6 million (quarter ended March 31, 2010: RM56.7 million gain),” it said.

MAS said the group recorded an operating loss for the quarter of RM267.4 million compared to an operating profit of RM137.3 million in 4QFY10 due to higher operating expenses mainly from the increase in fuel cost.

The group recorded a loss after tax of RM241.7 million after including amongst others, derivative gain of RM64.6 million for the quarter as compared to profit after tax of RM226.4 million in previous quarter.

“The 2011 operating profit target for the group is RM300 million to RM600 million. The on time performance target for the company is 84.7% to 87.0%,” it said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... rm24234m-in-1q.html

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发表于 2011-5-26 00:57 | 显示全部楼层
令吉油價挾擊 馬航首季虧2.4億

(吉隆坡25日訊)在令吉持續走強和油價高企雙重壓力下,促使馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)2011財政年首季業績(截至3月31日)由盈轉虧,陷入2億4233萬令吉虧損。

至於第二季業績表現會否持續受負面因素拖累,馬航董事經理兼首席執行員東姑阿茲米表示:「第二季傳統上是全年表現最為疲弱的季度,若油價等成本持續走高,將會對全年業績帶來影響。」

馬航首季營業額為31億9410萬令吉。

無論如何,按年比較,飛機燃油價格平均增長42%,至每桶121美元。令吉兌其他主要貨幣升值,促使馬航營業額減少7800萬令吉。儘管如此,馬航首季運輸量在載客率成長76%的帶動下,按年增長10%。至於其載客收入則在高檔業務收入增長40%下,也上揚10%。

25%燃油護盤

阿茲米表示,今年有針對25%的燃油需求進行護盤,每桶約為93美元。

該公司首季燃油成本按年增加32%至3億2100萬令吉。另外,阿茲米表示,該公司在首季的燃油護盤中,取得9000萬令吉利潤。

雖然馬航在較早前宣佈上調燃油附加費,但阿茲米表示目前還沒有看到其所帶來的影響,主要因為客戶或在兩個月前訂票,但油價卻在隨後上揚。因此,這些都需要時間發酵。

馬航續專注歐洲市場

阿茲米表示,馬航仍然會獲得A380型號空中巴士因無法準時交貨而做出的賠償,但目前仍然未收到有關賠償金。阿茲米爾占表示,他仍不清楚該賠償金何時支付。

無論如何,亞洲航空雖然同樣面對油價上揚問題,但該公司仍保持淨利,僅按年下滑23%。

對於馬航面臨的虧損情況,阿茲米表示,這主要因為兩者的市場差異,馬航航班以歐洲為主,相比亞航以亞洲為主的情況不相同,促使令吉升值對後者影響較微。

他指出,歐洲目前經濟仍然不明朗,對馬航也造成影響。

儘管如此,阿茲米表示,馬航不會更改其長期策略(以歐洲市場為主),主要因為兩者各有優勢,而他相信歐洲經濟情況並不會持續轉差。

阿茲米爾占表示,馬航冀望在2015年將每座位收益(CASK)降低至15%,而其目前已成功減低6%。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 3hn0mqc5cEV260v6mrP

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发表于 2011-5-27 14:22 | 显示全部楼层
財測大砍94%‧馬航全年或虧9億
大馬財經業績評論 2011-05-26 18:15

(吉隆坡26日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)首季蒙虧2億4千233萬9千令吉,令分析員跌破眼鏡,油價震盪與廉航競爭激烈下全年料流血難止,再度蒙受虧損,最高預測蒙受高達9億令吉的虧損,財測下修幅度最高達94%。

燃油成本大漲與馬幣匯率走高雙重利空,馬航首季由盈轉虧,由於虧損幅度大幅超過份析員預期,評級、目標價與淨利慘遭分析員大砍。該股在利空籠罩下,最終以全日最低收盤,掛1令吉55仙,落3仙。

益資利研究上修2011財政年燃油價自每桶110美元,增至120美元,同時削減乘客與貨運回酬各5與2%,並隨上述調整,預見2011財政年仍蒙虧9億1千400萬令吉。

聯昌研究預見馬航今年核心淨虧損達5億6千萬令吉,同時大幅下修2012至2013財政年核心淨利預測39至94%。

策略性錯誤令乘客業務蒙灰

該行直言,馬航策略性的錯誤令乘客業務蒙灰,國際乘客方面,馬航因過度擴充產能(按年增加12.5%)導致須削減機票價來刺激需求,國內方面,產能擴充卻只有微不足道的1%增長,惟卻過度提高票價,導致需求猛挫。

達證券基於燃油價走高與成本結構變動,下調2011與2012財政年財測,2011財政年蒙受4億零780萬令吉淨虧損,並在2012財政年錄得1億5千610萬令吉淨利,預見馬航至下半年才能復甦,主要是下半年一般表現較上半年強勁。

油價波動仍是最大挑戰

“燃油價波動依然是航空領域最大挑戰,而在其他全服務與廉航競爭激烈下,2011財政年是馬航的灰暗年。”

馬航之前被MSC I指數“除名”,從5月31日後生效,也令股價急挫至前歷史新低。

儘管達證券對馬航旗下飛螢(Firefly)的擴充看法正面,但作為全服務航空公司的馬航能夠成功經營低價航空仍是隱憂,主要是低價模式需完全不同的方式、程序、技術與行銷。

肯納格研究也上調油價預測至每桶100到115美元,下修馬航2011與2012財政年財測各45與62%。

管理層以油價每桶93美元為2011財政年燃油護盤25%,比較肯納格預測為100美元。油價迄今平均為每桶106美元,而油裂解價每桶約25至30美元,隨次季一般表現更脆弱,肯納格相信馬航次季挑戰嚴峻。

興業研究因回酬走低與燃料成本走高,預見2011財政年蒙受淨虧損6億1千750萬令吉,同時大砍2012與2013財政年淨利預測76至89%,到5千900萬與1億3千990萬令吉。

“該預測依據燃油價預測115美元估算,若飛機燃油價每桶走高1美元,2011財政年淨虧損料擴大6.6%。”

星洲日報/財經‧2011.05.26

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/47682

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发表于 2011-5-28 09:44 | 显示全部楼层
股價跌不停 馬航市值僅13億
財經27/05/2011 21:24

(吉隆坡27日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)股價“倒退”至10多年前的水平,代表國家的航空公司,市值僅13億令吉!

 馬航再陷虧損,今日遭日本野村控股(Nomura Holdings)“降級”,從“買進”下修至“減持”,目標價砍至1.41令吉,拖累股價于今早9時08分,下跌1.3%至1.53令吉,為2001年12月來低點。

 休市時,馬航報1.51令吉,跌4仙。

 步入午盤,馬航跌跌不休,並失守1.50令吉,全日見黑。

 該公司在週三宣佈業績報告,因天災人禍、油價衝高和令吉升值作祟,首季淨利按年由盈轉虧2億4234萬令吉,次季營運更艱辛。

 截至3月底首季,營業額按年下跌3%至31億9140萬令吉。

 市場揣測,馬航的兩大股東國庫控股(持股69.37%),和公積金局(持股10.9%),會否在是次困難中,再向該公司伸出援手。

 閉市時,掛1.45令吉,挫10仙,寫下2001年11月以來新低,共有1113萬9600股易手。

 若以收盤價計算,擁有無數飛機的馬航,公司市值只有13億924萬2129令吉。

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发表于 2011-5-28 17:44 | 显示全部楼层
是我看错还是财经记者计错,馬航股票有大约 33 亿张,
RM1.45 的价格,市值应该有 47 亿,不是报纸写的 13 亿

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x 340
发表于 2011-5-28 17:48 | 显示全部楼层
股價“倒退”至10多年前的水平,,,,!!!!
这个财经记者应该没做功课。

又或者,他不知什么是附加股(right issue),,,!!!

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x 340
发表于 2011-5-28 17:50 | 显示全部楼层
还是他扮傻,是想欺骗不理解的散户进场???

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发表于 2011-5-29 18:47 | 显示全部楼层
下半年该会好些吧!!一天不解决油价上涨的问题,何时才能回老本啊!!

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x 881
发表于 2011-5-30 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
股价在插水.....Air Asia的一半

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发表于 2011-5-30 10:48 | 显示全部楼层
mas以前独门生意都亏钱,现在有airasia tiger airline进来抢生意,你认为它能反身啊。

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发表于 2011-5-30 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
跌倒1快以下都很正常的。

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发表于 2011-5-30 10:53 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 sky1510 于 2011-5-30 10:57 编辑

bursa 有几千个股,为何要买一个不会赚钱的公司

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