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楼主: swordxend

swordxend专区: 投资是一辈子的事

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-4 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
回复 40# joye

它有提价能力吗?比如milo当成本上升时,它可以转价。同时顾客又不会跑掉 -->这一点还有待观察,但优势在于它已经有稳定的顾客群~
它的竞争力在哪里?比如生产成本是不是最低价,需不需要特别的技术生产等等 -->由于采取高科技集中生产(它在Pulau Indah拥有全世界其中一个最大的拉伸膜集中生产线),生产成本得以控制~
它有代替品吗?产品是不是有品牌,是不是顾客第一选择?-->在拉伸膜领域作为亚洲最大及全球第五大供应商,拥有一定的垄断势力~至于房地产则注重于中下阶层负担得起的住宅,销量较平稳并取得稳定成长~
它是独一无二吗?有专利吗?口味,品牌,形象等等。。-->这一点的优势还没有看到

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-4 21:22 | 显示全部楼层
这几天两大主力都取得不错的回酬,已经弥补了之前投机所亏损的一半!
所以说:做出错误决定并不可怕,最可怕的是做错了决定由不肯去改进!

原本预测会到来的一笔资金延迟了一个月,让我错失了不少机会!没办法,这就是打工一族被动的一面,因为很多东西控制权不在自己手上!因此,我更加要努力脱离老鼠圈!一步一脚印,为迈向财务自由继续努力!

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-9 20:31 | 显示全部楼层
Japan publishes strategic energy road map
By omnik solar        July 4, 2012
http://www.renewableenergyworld. ... gic-energy-road-map

Japan has published its latest strategic energy plan, originally formulated in 2003 and reviewed every three years by conference bodies as well as various opinion polls. The latest revision includes a road map of energy-based economic growth and reformation of the energy infrastructure. The strategy is to ensure growth and encourage multi-faceted international trade by taking into account the social cost and price differences between nuclear, thermal and renewable energy generation.

However, the country recently become embroiled in a trade dispute with Canada over its contentious domestic content requirements. On the other hand, this could however cement relations with the EU as it also joined the fracas later in the year.

Furthermore, in May, following talks between Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and US President Barack Obama, plans were discussed to strengthen mutual cooperation on energy issues.

The government of the Land of the Rising Sun will also be expanding its feed-in tariff systems for renewables as well as increasing support for R & D projects and local revitalization.

Japan’s choice of energy generation has been influenced not only by the ¥17 trillion spent in 2010 on importing electricity, but also the earthquake and nuclear disasters of spring last year. However, although Fukishima affected solar energy choices in other countries as well, Japan will be commissioning nine nuclear plants (14 by 2030) and new fossil fuel plants, to be installed by the beginning of 2020.

Curiously, only last month Japan had shut down operations at its last nuclear plant, leaving Japan without energy from atomic power for the first time for more than 40 years. Nonetheless, on June 16, the Japanese government approved plans to restart units 3 and 4 of the Ohi nuclear power station (NPS), western Japan, overseen by Kansai Electric Power Co. At the earliest, unit 3 will start power generation this week and reach full power next week and unit 4 will start power generation on July 20 and reach full power on July 24.

The plan is to raise the energy independence ratio to 70% (self-sufficiency energy plus self-developed energy supply, divided by total primary energy sources).

But if this further increases consumer electricity household bills, as figures from METI demonstrated last week, there is a possibility public pressure may force the government’s hand to concede to cuts as has happened in Europe this year.

If policies are sufficiently promoted, Japan’s energy target to reduce domestic energy CO2 emissions by 2030 has put in place a framework which could set it apart from the rest of the world to help solve the problem of global warming.

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-9 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
Japan to become No. 2 photovoltaic solar energy market
july 05, 2012
Japan is poised to overtake Germany and Italy to become the world's second-biggest market for solar power.



Japan is poised to overtake Germany and Italy to become the world's second-biggest market for solar power as incentives that started Sunday drive sales for equipment makers from Kyocera Corp. to China's Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co.

Industry Minister Yukio Edano on June 18 set a premium price for solar electricity that is about triple what industrial users now pay for conventional power. That may spur at least ¥760 billion in new installations with 3.2 gigawatts of capacity, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast. The total is about equal to the output of three atomic reactors.

"The tariff is very attractive," said Mina Sekiguchi, associate partner and head of energy and infrastructure at KPMG in Japan. "The rate reflects the government's intention to set up many solar power stations very quickly."

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's effort to cut dependence on atomic energy, which provided about 30 percent of Japan's power before the Fukushima nuclear crisis, will help a solar industry suffering incentive cuts across Europe. It is also raising concern among Japanese business groups that clean power aid will raise bills and slow the domestic economic recovery.

"This is a mechanism with a high degree of market intervention by setting tariffs artificially high and making users shoulder the cost," said Masami Hasegawa, senior manager of the environmental policy bureau of Keidanren, Japan's most powerful business lobby, which counts Toyota Motor Corp. and Nippon Steel Corp. among its members. "We question the effectiveness of such a scheme."

Utilities will pay ¥42 a kwh for 20 years to solar power producers, almost twice the rate in Germany, the world's biggest market by installations. The solar tariff was among incentive rates for clean energy announced June 18 by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Developers are counting on the subsidies and have accelerated solar-park construction plans this year.

"We hear every day a new announcement of a megawatt-scale project," Izumi Kaizuka, a solar industry analyst at RTS Corp., said in Munich, referring to projects 1 megawatt or bigger.

Japan ranked sixth worldwide by new installations last year, when it added 1.3 gigawatts of solar to bring its installed base to 5 gigawatts. Next year builders will erect roughly triple that level, or another 3.2 gigawatts to 4.7 gigawatts, New Energy Finance forecasts. A gigawatt is enough to supply about 243,000 homes in Japan.

Only China will exceed Japan in terms of solar capacity growth as it supplants Italy and Germany, which held the top two positions in 2010 and 2011, London-based New Energy Finance estimates.

Japanese companies such as Kyocera and Sharp Corp. that kept the photovoltaic industry alive when the U.S. scrapped investments in the 1990s are gearing up to supply their home market, as the government converts a pilot program into one aimed at large, commercial solar farms.

"We no longer have enough electricity, especially during the day, and that is when solar power can help," said Mikio Katayama, chairman of the electronics manufacturer Sharp Corp. and the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association. "This is a very good rate to promote investment and 'mega solars.' "

Germany's Q-Cells SE overtook Sharp as the biggest solar cell producer in 2007, according to the International Energy Agency. Now Chinese manufacturers such as Suntech Power Holdings Co. and Yingli dominate the industry as their lower prices helped push Q-Cells and several other Western rivals into bankruptcy protection.

Japan got about 1.6 percent of its energy from renewables in 2011, the smallest portion among Group of Seven countries after Canada. It trailed the U.S. and France in the G-7 in atomic power consumption. The shift toward solar reflects concern that the cost of imported fossil fuels will rise in the coming decades.

"Japan's manufacturing economy was severely challenged by the oil crisis of the 1970s," said Arthur Mitchell, senior counselor in the Tokyo office of the law firm White & Case LLP, whose expertise includes environmental and power policies. "Assuming that the price of energy and almost everything else will rise, Japan is betting it will once again become the most efficient user of energy."

A ¥42 solar rate, targeted for 10-kilowatt or bigger plants, is above the ¥38 price for 15 years the industry expected, according to Takashi Watanabe and Daiki Takayama, Tokyo-based analysts for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Under the new program, utilities will buy solar, biomass, wind, geothermal and hydro power. All costs will be passed on to consumers in surcharges, which the government said will average out at ¥87 a month per household. The government's previous average estimate was ¥100.

The industry ministry will set terms and rates annually for projects whose contracts are signed the same year with utilities.

The measures that began Sunday expand on a program started in November 2009 that requires utilities to buy solar power that the generator didn't need. That expanded the market for rooftop residential panels.

The new incentives will encourage utility-scale projects. Japan's five largest solar projects planned or under consideration were all announced between October and April, as the government worked out details of the feed-in tariff program, according to New Energy Finance.

Dozens of companies have announced plans to take advantage of Japan's subsidies. Yingli, based in Baoding, China, has set up a unit in Japan.

"Being closer to the customers is extremely important for Yingli," Masaki Mizuta, managing director of Yingli Japan, said May 4. "We also believe that this is a key success factor in Japan."

Kyocera Corp. is "aggressively" expanding its solar division, said Sanae Iwasaki, a spokeswoman for the Kyoto-based company. It doesn't disclose production targets, though it's considering a 70-megawatt station with IHI Corp. and Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Kagoshima, which would be the largest in Japan when completed.

Panasonic Corp., which also owns Sanyo Electric Co., plans to boost supply for its home market by shipping solar products from its new plant in Malaysia, said Kazuhiro Yoshida, who heads the company's solar panel operation.

"Japan is where the demand is," Yoshida said.

Japanese home renovation company West Holdings Corp.'s entry into the solar business was putting panels by Sanyo on rooftops five years ago. The company now gets almost all panel supplies from Chinese and Korean makers, Senior Managing Director Toshihisa Nagashima said.

"The quality of foreign panels is comparable and their prices are more competitive," compared with Japan-made products, Nagashima said. "Customers are becoming less picky about who makes them."

www.japantimes.co.jp

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-9 20:34 | 显示全部楼层
Solar energy in Japan
july 03, 2012

Chinese solar companies are eyeing neighboring markets for business opportunities as Japan switches to solar power to cut its dependence on nuclear energy.

On June 18, the Japanese government announced a new feed-in tariff, which took effect on Sunday. The tariff requires the Japanese power grid to pay solar companies 53 cents per kWh for the solar energy they feed into the system for the next 20 years.

The tariff is triple that of China's and almost double that of Germany. The tariff could spur at least $9.6 billion of investment in new solar installations and generate up to 3.2 GW of capacity, about the output of three nuclear plants, Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts.

On Sunday, the No 3 reactor of Ohi nuclear plant, northwest of Tokyo, returned to operation amid a deep division in public opinion.

Despite the lucrative tariff, Japan will not be an easy market for Chinese solar makers, industry players said.

Suntech, the world's largest panel maker, only has a 4 percent market share in Japan compared to its 20 percent market share in the US, according to the company.

"We are expecting the Japanese market to grow by around 50 percent in 2012 to more than 2 gW of new system installations," said Kuniko Misawa, general manager of Marketing at Suntech Power Japan.

"Japanese customers are focused not just on cost, but also long-term reliability and Japanese solar companies have traditionally been some of the strongest in the solar industry and they have well-established brands and sales channels," said Misawa.

"Building sales channels and cultivating market acceptance of products in Japan is a difficult and slow process. However, it can be done if you have quality products and a clear strategy."

Sources from the Yingli Green Energy Holdings Company who declined to be named said the Japanese market is relatively closed, with Sharp Solar, Kyocera Solar and Mitsubishi Solar Energy Ltd as the dominant players.

Suntech moved into the Japanese market in 2006 by acquiring MSK Corp, a manufacturer of solar equipment.

The successful foreign players will have to either build a partnership or joint venture with a Japanese company or set up a significant presence inside the country, according to Shayle Kann, managing director of GTM Research Solar Practice, a US-based leading industry research firm.

At least five Chinese solar panel manufacturers, including Hebei-based Yingli Green Energy, Jiangsu-based Hareon Solar Technology Co and Trina Solar, had offices in Japan from the beginning of this year.

Meanwhile, Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Co and Sky Solar Holdings Co plan to develop 100 mW of solar projects with an investment of 7.5 billion yen ($93.9 million) in Japan this year.

Other companies entered the even market earlier.

Chinese-owned Canadian Solar Inc opened a subsidiary in Japan in 2009, when the country adopted a feed-in tariff ensuring private homes that used photovoltaic systems would receive payments for power they generated. The company also plans to build and operate solar farms in Japan.

To develop solar projects in Japan developers will have to get certificates from the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association and Japan Electrical Safety & Environment Technology Laboratories. So far only seven Chinese companies have been given the green light, including Canadian Solar, Suntech, Trina and Yingli.

The Japanese market was up 30 percent year-on-year, reaching 1.2 gW in 2011, according to a report by Solarbuzz, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the solar energy supply chain.

Last year Japan ranked sixth worldwide for solar installations, with solar power providing about 1.6 percent of its electricity.

"In the short term, we have high expectations for the Japanese market given the high feed-in tariff levels and the government's commitment to PV," said Kann.

"However, we believe the current feed-in tariff mechanism will result in an application boom, and the government will be forced to decide whether to constrain the market beginning in 2013."

www.chinadaily.com.cn/

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-11 20:48 | 显示全部楼层
5月製造领域销售额成长10%
財经 2012年7月11日
http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/ ... 5-10&Itemid=198

(吉隆坡11日讯)大马5月份製造领域销售额按年成长10%,至525亿令吉,去年同期为477亿令吉。按月比较,销售额亦取得0.2%增长。至於4月份销售额则维持5.3%的成长,而销售价值则按月减少0.2%。

在接受调查的116个领域中,有81个领域或69.8%的销售呈按年增长。

主要带动销售成长的领域有化学製造和电脑及电脑设备製造,分別按年成长54.8%和53.6%。

隨后则有按年成长39.9%的汽车设备製造和按年攀升34.7%的经提炼棕油產品。半导体设备製造则取得按年6.8%的涨幅。

同时,5月份的製造领域总僱员人数达102万4902人,按月减少2403人或0.2%;但按年却微幅上扬0.3%,或达2972人。经调整的4月份总僱员人数按年攀升0.7%,至102万7305人。

按月比较,5月份总薪资下跌1.3%至25亿3640万令吉。无论如何,5月份总缴付薪金按年增长10.7%或2亿4440万令吉。经调整后,4月份的总薪金按年成长10.3%,达25亿6970万令吉。

至於每名僱员的平均薪金,按月比较下跌1%至2475令吉,但按年则取得10.3%增长。4月份经调整的平均僱员薪金取得按年9.5%成长,达2501令吉。

此外,每名员工带来的销售值或生產力按月提升0.5%,达5万1221令吉;按年则取得9.7%增长。经调整4月生產力按年成长4.6%,为5万零988令吉。

今年首5个月的製造领域销售价值取得按年7%或170亿令吉成长,达2585亿令吉。总僱员人数则取得0.3%成长,至102万4902人。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-12 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
疯狂后,一切又恢复平静。。。
但没关系,基本面依旧。。。
毕竟投资就像投资做生意,公司前景依然乐观,就应该给予耐性。
任何东西,都不可能一步登天的。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-14 18:00 | 显示全部楼层
低价竞争模式恐难征服日本光伏市场
时间:2012-06-18    来源:北极星太阳能光伏网 点击数:39

Solarbe(索比)太阳能网讯:2011年8月,日本通过了可再生能源收购法案,以推动“全量能源购买制度”,由电力公司向企业收购库存能源,促进太阳能产业成长。今年4月下旬,日本采购价格估算委员会公布了2012年7月之后将实行的可再生能源上网电价补贴政策。其中,规模大于10kW的太阳能发电系统上网电价补贴为税前42日元/kWh,税后40日元/kWh(约合3.3元),补贴时间20年;对于10kW以下的项目,补贴为42日元/kWh(约合3.15元),补贴时间10年。

   如此高且稳定的上网电价无疑对中国光伏企业有着巨大的诱惑。然而我们也不得不看到,日本虽然在积极鼓励太阳能发电,然而中国光伏要想在日本市场赚钱还是不容易的。一是市场开拓难,二是准入门槛高。

   2011年,日本户用屋顶市场占到市场总量的86%,并培育出一套非常细分严密的分销体系。日本购买组件的渠道有如下几类:一级分销商如住友、三菱等;专业太阳能分销商如Greentech等;建筑公司如大和房屋、高岛等;电器商如东芝(微博);还有建材商。日本消费者和运营商对渠道的忠诚度高,一般不会越过中间分销层级来购买。

   在如此严谨的销售渠道下,分销商与日本本土品牌建立了长期持久的合作关系,中国光伏制造商很难在短期内快速打开局面。

   同时,在日本光伏市场,主要有两种认证:由日本太阳能光电协会颁发的日本住宅顶部太阳能系统JPEC认证以及日本电气安全环境研究所JET颁发的太阳能组件JET认证。如果中国制造商要想进入日本地面电站市场,首先需得到JET认证。

   日本人最看重的就是产品质量,其次是服务,最后才是价格,中国光伏在欧美的低价模式在日本是不能直接见效的。虽然中国光伏组件价格低廉,但25年的质保期,还是让日本消费者非常谨慎。

“通常而言,中国公司产品一级代理的价格比日本产品要低15-20%,在终端系统上,价格只低10%,很多消费者考虑到要使用25年以上,在价格相差不大的前提下更愿意买日本的产品。”中电电气(上海)太阳能科技有限公司亚太区销售经理崔娟娟说,“中国产品难有较大价格优势,主要是因为营运费用不低。”

   而且,中国的大企业总是执着于品牌,但日本市场却总是排斥外国品牌。如果企业打自己品牌一年只卖二三十兆瓦,远不如做代工每年五六十兆瓦的利润。因此,进入日本市场最佳的方案即与本土金融机构进行合作来竞争光伏系统项目。日前,就有业内人士表示,在日本市场中开疆扩土,光伏企业需要与本土金融机构进行合作,以便获得太阳能项目。一旦太阳能光伏系统建立并连接电网,在日本市场进行销售并获得收益就并非难事。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 swordxend 于 2012-10-12 21:04 编辑

森德综合4731分析(二)

昨天再次深入研究Scientex这支股,这一次我从年报下手...
花了半天时间,一口气看过了2008到 2011的年报,也了解到了Scientex近几年的转变...
森德在拉伸膜等生产方面已经有超过40年的经验,在房地产也已经有十多年的经验,所以公司把专注力集中在这两个行业是明智的选择...

生产业:

从年报留意公司的展望,其实公司的眼光相当不错的!值得注意,这家公司在创办初期就一直与日本公司有良好的合作,所以他们进军日本市场有一定的渗透能力!当年大量注资在拉伸膜生产业也证明了其管理成的眼光,毕竟现在它已经成功成为这行业,亚洲最大的供应商,现在迈向世界五大的目标也很明确,从他不停扩充生产线就看到了!

一定会有人问,它生产那么多,市场上有需求吗?
以下的资料就说明了拉伸膜在世界的需求量:

若报道预测的属实,拉伸膜在世界、尤其是森德主攻的亚洲市场,还有很大的成长空间~ 他的另一个优势在于目前为止还没有任何东西可以代替其Resin的低成本~
当然经济萧条都出口的冲击将会影响他的需求。除了拉伸膜,在生产业森德也进军生产各种汽车配件如地毡、PVC车包皮革等等,并成功在Proton、Honda和Nissan等公司拿到订单。同一时间,他也是世界主要的 strapping Band生产商,在越南有一间与日资公司合作的厂房。

当然,他还有生产一系列包装有关的产品,这里就不一一说出了,看图:



房地产:

公司在90年代就开始在柔佛一代拥有其地库,并在2005年开始陆续买入柔佛州Pasir Gudang、Kulai和Skudai等地库,当然还有马六甲Ayer Keroh的黄金地库。

森德推出的房地产以人民能力范围内的中价屋为主,在第十大马计划推动下的Iskandar经济发展区当动下,森的除了保持继续提供有高需求中价屋,也在柔佛和马六甲的黄金地带推出令公司赚副更高的高档房地产!森德的地库,可以让它继续发展到2019年,并预计未来几年会贡献其总盈利的50%或以上。 Taman Mutiara Mas Skudai和Taman Scientex Pasir Gudang是他们的代表作。

新行业:

森德与三井(Mitsui Chemical)合作进军太阳能电池封装胶膜,或许将会再次证明其管理层独到的眼光,或许它的决定将能够然个公司在这高度成长的太阳能领域分上一杯羹!

以三井在这行业25年的经验,再加上这世界第三大的生产商所拥有的网络,相信在销量方面将不会成问题。在日本人民反对核电厂和政府大力推动再生能源下,日本将成为世界第二大的太阳能国,或许这就是三井要快速扩充生产的原因之一,森德与三井早期的合作让他的一再次得到这个合作机会。在这个月的试跑完成后,下个月在马六甲的新产房将会开始大量生产,预计在明年的业绩就会看到这行业对公司的贡献了。

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发表于 2012-7-22 21:49 | 显示全部楼层
昨天再次深入研究Scientex这支股,这一次我从年报下手...
花了半天时间,一口气看过了2008到 2011的年报, ...
swordxend 发表于 2012-7-22 17:08



    谢谢分享。

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发表于 2012-7-22 21:55 | 显示全部楼层
昨天再次深入研究Scientex这支股,这一次我从年报下手...
花了半天时间,一口气看过了2008到 2011的年报, ...
swordxend 发表于 2012-7-22 17:08


为什么一直去开展新行业?
原本的行业遇到瓶颈了吗?还是没本事做大。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 22:12 | 显示全部楼层
为什么一直去开展新行业?
原本的行业遇到瓶颈了吗?还是没本事做大。
anita 发表于 2012-7-22 21:55


其实也不完全是新行业~
太阳能电池封装胶膜和拉伸膜的技术相当接近,既然日本对太阳能电池封装胶膜有需求,为何不利用这方面已经有的知识和技术,去开发这个高成长行业呢?
你看八年兄提到对日本太阳能发展的隐忧,你就知道他的潜能了~
至于行业遇到瓶颈,不认同~若遇到瓶颈,为何他还继续扩充Pulau Indah的产房呢?

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 22:13 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢分享。
ckng2007 发表于 2012-7-22 21:49


谢谢ckng2007的支持

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发表于 2012-7-22 22:26 | 显示全部楼层
其实也不完全是新行业~
太阳能电池封装胶膜和拉伸膜的技术相当接近,既然日本对太阳能电池封装胶膜有需求,为何不利用这方面已经有的知识和技术,去开发这个高成长行业呢?
你看八年兄提到对日本太阳能发展的隐忧,你就知道他的潜能了~
至于行业遇到瓶颈,不认同~若遇到瓶颈,为何他还继续扩充Pulau Indah的产房呢?我是说拉伸膜的行业啦。

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发表于 2012-7-22 22:28 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢ckng2007的支持
swordxend 发表于 2012-7-22 22:13



    我要谢谢你才对

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发表于 2012-7-22 22:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 anita 于 2012-7-22 22:34 编辑

管理层的诚信如何?如何评估。
有股息政策吗?
拉伸膜的盈利net profit %是多少?占总集团总盈利多少%。
市场的占有率是多少。?
有什么会造成拉伸膜赚利影响,风险是什么?

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
其实也不完全是新行业~
太阳能电池封装胶膜和拉伸膜的技术相当接近,既然日本对太阳能电池封装胶膜有需求 ...
anita 发表于 2012-7-22 22:26



    我也在说拉伸模。。。pulau indah 的

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发表于 2012-7-22 22:47 | 显示全部楼层
我也在说拉伸模。。。pulau indah 的
swordxend 发表于 2012-7-22 22:45


paiseh...我还以为你讲他的产业。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 23:04 | 显示全部楼层
管理层的诚信如何?如何评估。
有股息政策吗?
拉伸膜的盈利net profit %是多少?占总集团总盈利多少%。
...
anita 发表于 2012-7-22 22:31


派息策略30%...其他的问题自己研究。。呵呵。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2012-7-22 23:06 | 显示全部楼层
paiseh...我还以为你讲他的产业。
anita 发表于 2012-7-22 22:47



  哈哈。。也分享下你的持股策略。。

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